As Narendra Modi begins his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister, neighboring Pakistan is watching closely to see what the next five years mean for long-standing tensions between the two countries, particularly over the issue of Kashmir.
Relations between India and Pakistan have been tense for decades, with the Himalayan region of Kashmir at the heart of the conflict. Under Modi’s predecessor, the Indian government undertook a constitutional amendment process to reclassify the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir as a union territory, giving the central government greater power over the disputed, Muslim-majority region. The move came after India revoked Article 370 of the Constitution, which gave the state special status and powers.
In response, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic relations with India and suspended bilateral trade. Relations between the two countries have remained stagnant for the past few years, with Pakistan arguing that the onus is on India to create an enabling environment for negotiations, with such efforts linked to the restoration of special status for Jammu and Kashmir. India, on the other hand, continues to maintain that the Kashmir issue is an internal matter and that negotiations with Pakistan should only take place on the issue of cross-border terrorism, which it claims originates from the Pakistani side.
Due to this hardline stance, a meaningful reconciliation for both countries seems out of reach for now. The Pakistani government is already challenged with many issues. The economic crisis continues and political challenges continue. At this stage, Islamabad cannot afford to publicly send a message of reconciliation towards India and at the same time ignore the revocation of special status for Jammu and Kashmir.
Meanwhile, India does not appear to be willing to compromise on the Kashmir issue or enter into talks with Pakistan. As Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently stated, India is only concerned with finding a “solution to the long-standing cross-border terrorism issue” with Pakistan.
The issue of terrorism is a complex area, with India and Pakistan accusing each other of cross-border terror attacks. India has long alleged Pakistan’s involvement in such incidents, while Pakistan has recently sought to claim it is a victim of Indian-sponsored terrorism. Islamabad recently submitted documents implicating India in assassination operations inside Pakistan.
Despite the rhetoric on Kashmir and terrorism, both countries are likely to at least try to avoid a resurgence of tensions.
Indian and Pakistani leaders exchanged congratulatory messages on social media after Modi was sworn in, an encouraging sign that ties between the two countries are not yet completely lost.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his brother, three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, congratulated Modi on his party’s election victory. Nawaz Sharif’s message expressed his desire to “transform hatred into hope” and work for the well-being of the people of South Asia. Modi responded by emphasizing India’s commitment to peace, security and progressive causes.
However, Sharif’s message to Modi was brief and cautious, suggesting that Pakistan is taking a wait-and-see approach. Large-scale, decisive talks between the two countries seem unlikely in the near future. The Modi government may not want to be seen to make concessions to Pakistan so early in its term, which could alienate its Pakistani support base.
In Pakistan, several issues are at stake: the government will need to coordinate with its powerful military to determine how the country will approach reconciliation with India and what can realistically be put on the agenda.
Notably, a ceasefire along the Line of Control that separates the Indian and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir has held for more than three years, offering a glimmer of hope that further confidence-building measures between the two countries are possible.
