NEW DELHI: The BJP, which failed to secure a majority on its own in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, has got a head start on the state assembly elections due later this year in three key states. Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will vote to elect new governments between October and December this year. BJP leader JP Nadda on Monday appointed party leaders Bhupinder Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnav as election chief and co-chief in charge in Maharashtra, while Dharmendra Pradhan and Biplab Kumar Dev have been appointed election chiefs in Haryana. In Jharkhand, the BJP has chosen senior leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as the party’s election chiefs.
First election test after LS voting
The state assembly elections will be the first test for the BJP and the Indian coalition. The saffron party is still reeling from its disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, surpassing all the opposition parties combined to become the single largest party. However, this total was well below the party’s hyped 370 seats and the ruling NDA alliance’s 400 seats. The drop of 240 seats also means that the party will have to rely on allies to stay in power. Compare this to the overwhelming support the BJP received in 2014 and 2019, when it won a majority on its own with 282 and 303 seats respectively. This may be the reason for the BJP’s underperformance in the 2024 elections.
But why is this election so important for the saffron party?
Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand have long been BJP strongholds. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 23 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, 10 out of 10 seats in Haryana and 11 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. In 2014 too, the party had performed very well in these states, winning 23 seats in Maharashtra, 7 seats in Haryana and 12 seats in Jharkhand. No wonder, these states were supposed to help the BJP achieve its ambitious target of 400 seats. However, the voters of these states had a surprise in store for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party could win only 9 seats in Maharashtra, 5 seats in Haryana and 8 seats in Jharkhand.
What makes the outcome of these Lok Sabha elections even more worrying for the BJP is the fact that people in these states have traditionally voted in large numbers for the saffron party in national elections, even if they opted for other parties in state elections.
One example is when the Indian National Congress defeated the BJP in the Hindi-speaking heartlands of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2018, forming a government ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, when it came to national elections, people in the three states again voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, winning 24 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, 9 of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh and 24 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan.
With state elections just months away, the BJP must act fast to reposition itself in three key states: Maharashtra and Haryana, where it must hold onto power, while Jharkhand is where it must wrest power back from the Indian substate.
In Maharashtra in particular, RSS-linked magazines have questioned the wisdom of the BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar, forcing the saffron party to make a quick decision. The BJP fought the Lok Sabha elections in alliance with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Both leaders split the party and joined forces with the BJP. There are reports that the BJP has commissioned a study to assess whether it should contest the state assembly elections alone or in alliance with the two parties.
The BJP has already seen a leadership change in Haryana and hopes this will mark the start of a turnaround for the party in the state. In Jharkhand, the BJP will try to use the arrests of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren and senior Congress leader Alamgir Alam to put pressure on the ruling coalition.
Can India continue its dream run?
The opposition India (India National Development Comprehensive Alliance) coalition has surprised everyone, including pollsters, by performing better than expected in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but can they continue this momentum in the future?
Well, at least in Maharashtra, they have demonstrated the urgency and need for fast action to consolidate the seats they have won. The first meeting of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance partners – the Indian National Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP – has already taken place. Top leaders are making the right statements ahead of the upcoming election campaign. But to sustain the momentum, they will have to smoothly navigate the first hurdle of seat allocation first. After the meeting, senior leader Sharad Pawar sarcastically praised PM Modi, claiming that the opposition alliance won in most of the seats where he campaigned.
In Jharkhand and Haryana, the opposition alliance will need to act fast to counter a determined BJP. Though the opposition parties in these three states have a higher margin of victory against the BJP in state elections, they would be wise not to let their guard down and squander their advantage in the Lok Sabha.
First election test after LS voting
The state assembly elections will be the first test for the BJP and the Indian coalition. The saffron party is still reeling from its disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, surpassing all the opposition parties combined to become the single largest party. However, this total was well below the party’s hyped 370 seats and the ruling NDA alliance’s 400 seats. The drop of 240 seats also means that the party will have to rely on allies to stay in power. Compare this to the overwhelming support the BJP received in 2014 and 2019, when it won a majority on its own with 282 and 303 seats respectively. This may be the reason for the BJP’s underperformance in the 2024 elections.
But why is this election so important for the saffron party?
Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand have long been BJP strongholds. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 23 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, 10 out of 10 seats in Haryana and 11 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. In 2014 too, the party had performed very well in these states, winning 23 seats in Maharashtra, 7 seats in Haryana and 12 seats in Jharkhand. No wonder, these states were supposed to help the BJP achieve its ambitious target of 400 seats. However, the voters of these states had a surprise in store for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party could win only 9 seats in Maharashtra, 5 seats in Haryana and 8 seats in Jharkhand.
What makes the outcome of these Lok Sabha elections even more worrying for the BJP is the fact that people in these states have traditionally voted in large numbers for the saffron party in national elections, even if they opted for other parties in state elections.
One example is when the Indian National Congress defeated the BJP in the Hindi-speaking heartlands of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2018, forming a government ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, when it came to national elections, people in the three states again voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, winning 24 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, 9 of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh and 24 of the 25 seats in Rajasthan.
With state elections just months away, the BJP must act fast to reposition itself in three key states: Maharashtra and Haryana, where it must hold onto power, while Jharkhand is where it must wrest power back from the Indian substate.
In Maharashtra in particular, RSS-linked magazines have questioned the wisdom of the BJP’s alliance with Ajit Pawar, forcing the saffron party to make a quick decision. The BJP fought the Lok Sabha elections in alliance with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Both leaders split the party and joined forces with the BJP. There are reports that the BJP has commissioned a study to assess whether it should contest the state assembly elections alone or in alliance with the two parties.
The BJP has already seen a leadership change in Haryana and hopes this will mark the start of a turnaround for the party in the state. In Jharkhand, the BJP will try to use the arrests of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren and senior Congress leader Alamgir Alam to put pressure on the ruling coalition.
Can India continue its dream run?
The opposition India (India National Development Comprehensive Alliance) coalition has surprised everyone, including pollsters, by performing better than expected in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but can they continue this momentum in the future?
Well, at least in Maharashtra, they have demonstrated the urgency and need for fast action to consolidate the seats they have won. The first meeting of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance partners – the Indian National Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP – has already taken place. Top leaders are making the right statements ahead of the upcoming election campaign. But to sustain the momentum, they will have to smoothly navigate the first hurdle of seat allocation first. After the meeting, senior leader Sharad Pawar sarcastically praised PM Modi, claiming that the opposition alliance won in most of the seats where he campaigned.
In Jharkhand and Haryana, the opposition alliance will need to act fast to counter a determined BJP. Though the opposition parties in these three states have a higher margin of victory against the BJP in state elections, they would be wise not to let their guard down and squander their advantage in the Lok Sabha.
