Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is bracing for what analysts predict could be the most significant defeat in British electoral history. At least three British opinion polls have recently projected extremely bleak prospects for Sunak and his party, with one pollster claiming “electoral annihilation” in the July 4 election.
Recent opinion polls have shown a significant drop in support, with the Conservative Party predicted to win just 72 of the 650 seats in the next general election.
Political experts say this could be the Conservative Party’s worst defeat in history.
Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, predicts the ruling party’s approval rating will fall below 30%, adding that Rishi Sunak’s approval rating as chancellor is at its lowest.
“Approval is set to fall below 30 per cent. It has never been below that before and we are seeing a very consistent pattern. Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is the lowest of any chancellor. The proportion of voters who say the government is doing a bad job is at an all-time high,” Ford told India Today TV.
After 14 years of Conservative government, one of the UK’s worst cost-of-living crises has led to growing calls for change among voters.
Professor Anand Menon, director of Britain in a Changing Europe, expressed similar concerns, saying it was very difficult for a party to win an election when it had been in power for more than 14 years.
“It’s very hard to win an election when you’ve been in power for 14 years or more. People start thinking about change. Secondly, it’s very hard to win an election when you’ve been leading a cost of living crisis. On top of this, there are problems of the Conservative party’s own making – support for the Conservative party fell significantly because of partisan divisions, followed by Liz Truss’ mini-Budget. So the problems are multi-layered,” Menon said.
Since the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron after Brexit, the UK has seen many changes in prime ministers, with Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak taking the helm in succession.
This rapid turnover of prime ministers contrasts sharply with the previous 28 years, which saw only three prime ministers: Margaret Thatcher, John Major and Tony Blair.
Experts say Liz Truss has caused huge damage to the party in her just 45 days in power, while Rishi Sunak has done little to repair it.
“He (Mr Sunak) has been dealt a very bad hand, particularly by Liz Truss and through party gates by Boris Johnson – all of which are outside his control – but he has received this bad hand in a very clumsy way,” Rob Ford said.
“Sunak has not found a way to turn things around, he has not delivered on his key promises, he has not tried to persuade Conservative voters to support him, so he is starting from a very bad legacy and has not been able to improve it. That is not good leadership,” he added.
In Richmond, Britain’s wealthiest constituency, experts have expressed misgivings about the vote. Pranam, an IT professional at the friendly cricket match, said: “It’s not about Rishi or anyone, but both parties are not clear on their agenda. They talk about the NHS, the police, immigration but I wish they would go further and explain their plans. They’re all just making lip service to the cause.”
A Best for Britain Survation poll published by The Times predicts that Labour will win 456 seats. But not all Labour supporters are happy. Liam, a lifelong Labour supporter, said: “I’ve voted Labour all my life but I’m not voting this time,” expressing his disappointment with Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
Sophie Stowers, a researcher in the largest ever survey of Britain’s changing ethnic minority vote in Europe, noted that while Rishi Sunak is viewed more favourably among British Indians than any other ethnic group, most British Indians are likely to vote Labour in the next election.
“The majority of British Indians will vote Labour in the next general election, even though we see a higher intention to vote Conservative among British Indians than any other ethnic minority group. But at the moment the Conservative party is too unpopular for that to happen in reality,” Stowers said.
Rupesh Agarwal, a human resources expert in Richmond, who supports Rishi Sunak but is undecided about his vote, said similarly: Richmond is a Liberal Democrat stronghold.
The latest opinion polls suggest Labour is on track to win a majority with 262 seats, surpassing Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997. The Liberal Democrats are expected to win 56 seats, the Reform Party seven and the Greens one, leaving the Conservatives trailing with just 72 seats.
