The RAND Corporation report, “Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation,” suggests that Beijing and Moscow could eventually work together to launch “joint military operations,” but that the likelihood of this “remains uncertain at best.”
The report released Wednesday said greater integration between the two militaries is likely to result in more complex and frequent training and exercises, and that the interactions could lead to expanded technology and skills transfer and operations in new regions and domains.
03:07
Xi Jinping welcomes old friend Putin to Beijing, stresses strong ties between China and Russia
Xi Jinping welcomes old friend Putin to Beijing, stresses strong ties between China and Russia
But China and Russia are still likely to be “well below” fully integrated partners, meaning they would not share common strategic systems such as command, control, intelligence and surveillance systems.
The report also said coordination between the two countries on the use of nuclear weapons may have been overestimated because of “significant gaps” over the use of nuclear deterrence.
The report’s authors also suggested that a direct confrontation between the two great powers and the United States, either alone or as a coalition, remains unlikely because of the expected costs, particularly from China’s perspective.
They said trying to destroy relations with China and Russia could be counterproductive and that Washington should pursue “stronger than ever cooperation between our most important allies and partners.”
“Attempts to sever Sino-Russian ties are unlikely to succeed and may ultimately motivate both Russia and China to strengthen their ties,” the report said, adding that the most effective way to counter a strategic partnership between Russia and China is to ensure the health of the United States’ own alliances.
China and Russia are strengthening their cooperation despite pressure from the West over the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
02:20
Russian President Putin visits China’s “Little Moscow” Harbin as part of state visit
Russian President Putin visits China’s “Little Moscow” Harbin as part of state visit
But the Washington-based think tank, the Center for Advanced Defense Studies, said Russia was exploring buying older Western-made machine tools from Chinese companies to make weapons.
Last year, the two militaries conducted joint air force patrols over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, the sixth under their annual cooperation plan since 2019. Following the latest joint training, South Korea and Japan scrambled aircraft.
The two countries are also set to begin joint naval exercises in the East China Sea in 2022, which will be the closest they have come to the Taiwan Strait since the annual military drills began more than a decade ago.
