If you’ve felt like it’s gotten harder to make ends meet over the last five years, it’s probably only going to get worse in the future, according to a new study.
Over the past five years, 97% of occupational salaries have not kept up with inflation, according to personal finance platform Moneywise. To see how salaries are keeping up with inflation, Moneywise analyzed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Federal Housing Agency (FIA), and Redfin. It found that while home prices have increased by an average of 56%, average salaries have fallen by 8.2%.
And things probably aren’t going to get much better: Of the 20 most common occupations in the U.S., only waiters are expected to see inflation-adjusted salaries increase by 2028, the report said.
“If things don’t change soon, the pain and pressures of inflation, rising costs of living and rising housing costs will significantly reduce the purchasing power of Americans across nearly every profession and industry,” said Nick Rizzo, research analyst at Moneywise.
Which occupations will see the biggest decline in purchasing power by 2028?
According to MoneyWise, the top five occupations that will see the biggest declines in adjusted pay are:
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Primary school teacher:
- Average salary in 2023: $64,290
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -11.59%
- Projected salary in 2028: $56,504
Accountant:
- Average salary in 2023: $79,880
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -10.51%
- Projected salary in 2028: $71,485
Administrative Assistant:
- Average salary in 2023: $46,010
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -8.47%
- Projected salary in 2028: $42,113
Registered Nurse:
- Average salary in 2023: $86,070
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -7.82%
- Projected salary in 2028: $79,339
General maintenance personnel:
- Average salary in 2023: $46,700
- Inflation-adjusted change over 5 years: -7.55%
- Projected salary in 2028: $43,174
Which job will you be most successful at?
Here are the five occupations that MoneyWise expects to either retain the majority of their purchasing power or increase their purchasing power:
Waitresses and waiters:
- Average salary in 2023: $31,940
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: +1.73%
- Projected salary in 2028: $32,493
Food preparation workers:
- Average salary in 2023: $32,420
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -0.36%
- Projected salary in 2028: $32,303
Retail Sales Associate:
- Average salary in 2023: $33,900
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -1.25%
- Projected salary in 2028: $33,476
Cashier:
- Average salary in 2023: $29,720
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -1.48%
- Projected salary in 2028: $29,280
Customer Sales Representative:
- Average salary in 2023: $39,680
- Five-year salary change after adjusting for inflation: -3.23%
- Projected salary in 2028: $38,398
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But isn’t inflation falling?
It’s true that inflation has subsided over the past year, but that may not be enough to reverse the trend.
“As the overall economy improves, this trend will certainly begin to slowly reverse,” Rizzo said. “But even if inflation falls, rising home prices, ongoing conflicts, stagnant wages, and the demon of AI-induced unemployment make it seem like the odds are stacked against most Americans to return to the status quo anytime soon.”
“Given the breakneck speed at which AI will continue to be integrated directly into business, whether to assist or replace employees, it’s possible that it may never become prevalent in some jobs or industries,” he said.
Medora Lee is USA TODAY’s money, markets and personal finance reporter. Contact her at mjlee@usatoday.com. You can also subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter, which delivers personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.
