- Ukrainian security experts argue that Ukraine is falling prey to a strategy that favors Russia.
- Without a grand strategy for victory, Ukraine can only hope to hold on.
- “Without a strategy for victory, this war will become a war of attrition,” Oleksandr Danylyuk told BI.
Ukraine is caught in a strategic trap: it is barely strong enough to stop a major Russian aggression, but not powerful enough to drive Russian forces out of territory that Ukraine controlled before the 2022 invasion. As a result, Ukraine is trapped in a war of attrition that it cannot win.
The solution? Strengthening Ukraine’s military power and forcing Russia to agree to peace, Ukrainian security experts argue. But that won’t come unless Russia takes advantage of long delays in U.S. military aid and Ukraine devises a grand strategy that goes beyond the mere survival that has characterized much of the 2024 war.
“Without a strategy for victory, this war will become a war of attrition for Ukraine, which is fully aligned with Russia’s interests,” Oleksandr Danylyuk told Business Insider.
Danylyuk rejects the idea that even with Western aid, Ukraine can match Russia in terms of military might – tanks, artillery, soldiers, etc. “Trying to win a war against Russia solely through a balanced mass buildup is a flawed strategy, given that Russia has far more military forces than us. [military-age] “Russia has a human reserve army of about 30 million people (Ukraine has about 8 million), a huge stockpile of weapons and military equipment inherited from the USSR or to be produced by 2022, a developed defense-industrial complex and a powerful mining industry that can meet the demand for large amounts of strategic materials,” he wrote. essay For the British think tank, the Royal Institute for Security Studies.
What remains is to improve the quality of the Ukrainian military. But this entails more than improved weapons and tactics. Danylyuk argues that political mobilization is just as important, an idea reminiscent of the 19th century German military philosopher Carl von Clausewitz, who defined a nation’s war effort as The Trinity It consists of the people, the government and the military.
“The political effectiveness of a military organization depends on its ability to receive financial support, the provision of weapons and military equipment, and the replenishment of human resources necessary to eliminate existing threats,” Danylyuk wrote. [Armed Forces of Ukraine] Ukraine’s defense needs are currently only partially met and remain inadequate.”
Danylyuk blames Western restrictions on the types of weapons supplied and how they can be used. The United States and Europe have long Constraints Regarding the use of long-range weapons, ATACMS long-range guided rocketOnly recently has the Biden administration begun to ease up on that policy in order to strike targets deep inside Russia. policyAs the war drags on, an easy victory with Western weaponry is looking less likely, and it’s also clear that Ukraine, even with strong EU and US backing, remains at a disadvantage against Russian military might in the years-long fight.
Danylyuk also worries that political differences between Ukraine and its allies are weakening Ukraine’s military. The current Ukrainian government wants to liberate the occupied territories, “which is undoubtedly fair and reasonable, but it ignores the fact that the liberation of territory does not necessarily mean the end of the war,” he wrote. Meanwhile, U.S. and European hopes for a negotiated solution “will be seen by Russia as a tactical reprieve that it can use to restore and build its capabilities and plan a new stage of aggression.”
In other words, Russia could use the peace deal to rebuild its depleted military before launching a new invasion of Ukrainian territory.
As a result, the Ukrainian military is unsure of what kind of war it should be preparing for. “The political leaders of Ukraine and its partners see these goals in different ways, which puts the Ukrainian military in an extremely difficult position, adversely affecting its ability to develop and implement a military strategy aimed at achieving these goals,” Danylyuk wrote.
Without a grand strategy for victory, all Ukraine can do is hold out, Danylyuk told Business Insider. “Planning individual operations, assessing and providing AFU needs, developing and preparing training programs, and implementing new tactical technologies can, at best, support Ukraine’s ability to wage war, but not win.”
There are too many competing visions for a Ukrainian victory, he argues, including recapturing all of Ukrainian lost territory, threatening Russia with control of the Crimean peninsula to force negotiations, punishing Russian industry and exports to make Russia reconsider the costs of the war, or imposing such a high price that Russian leaders are forced to withdraw similar to the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Danylyuk blames Ukraine for some military missteps, including a failed counterattack against well-entrenched Russian forces in the summer of 2023. But he believes tactical improvements are at the bottom of Ukraine’s to-do list.
Danylyuk said Western countries could boost Ukraine’s military by focusing on weapons that have already proven devastating against Russian weaknesses, including cheap naval drones that have sunk numerous Russian warships and driven Russia’s Black Sea fleet off Ukraine’s coast, and providing Ukraine with more Western aircraft and air-to-air missiles to counter Russian air power.
Interestingly, Danylyuk also criticizes the failure to adapt Western equipment to the lessons of the Ukraine war: “This is, first of all, a question of the ability of Western countries to quickly improve their military equipment, not only because Ukraine needs it, but also because the partners’ own security depends on it. The current pace of this improvement is totally insufficient, and the approach to identifying and eliminating shortcomings in these systems requires a complete overhaul.”
Danylyuk’s analysis leaves several questions unanswered. For example, the Germans discovered On the Eastern Front of World War II, quality does not always trump quantity. And as the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive proved, achieving a decisive battlefield victory was a difficult feat. It’s not easyWith Russian society mobilized for total war and Moscow able to garner resources from allies such as China, North Korea and Iran, Russia’s capacity to wage a long war is considerable.
And choosing a grand strategy is easier said than done. For example, the Ukrainian government has vowed to liberate all of its occupied territories, including Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed. Some critics say this is unrealistic and that Ukraine would be forced to accept losing some territory.
Whatever strategy Kiev chooses, Danylyuk argues that the status quo cannot be maintained.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy and other publications. He holds a Master’s in Political Science from Rutgers University. twitter and LinkedIn.
