Wagner Uprising: A year after the revolt, Russia takes control of group’s remnants

Russia has effectively dismantled the Wagner Group and created a new organisation a year after the mercenary group shocked the world with an uprising against President Vladimir Putin’s government, experts have told the BBC.

The late paramilitary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, crossed the border from Ukraine on June 23, 2023, and seized the southern city of Rostov after months of rising tensions with military leaders in Moscow.

His troops then launched a short charge towards the capital but encountered little resistance; this march, which Prigozhin called a “March for Justice”, came to an abrupt end when he called off the advance the next day.

Dr Sorcha MacLeod, a member of the UN Working Group on Mercenaries and lecturer at the University of Copenhagen, said former Wagner troops were dispersed across Russia.

“[Wagner] “It may not exist in exactly the same form as before, but versions of it, or versions of it, continue to exist,” she told the BBC. “There’s this sort of decentralization happening within the Russian state, and no one has total control.”

“The Wagner Group is of vital geopolitical and economic importance to Russia and was never going to disappear as some have suggested,” she added.

Prigozhin’s forces had long been a valuable and undeniable asset to Russian operations in Africa and Syria, but it was in Ukraine, where Moscow’s conventional forces were struggling to weaken Kiev’s defenses, that Prigozhin and Wagner came into their own.

In late 2022 and early 2023, Wagner was key to one of Russia’s few battlefield victories. His forces, mostly made up of former prisoners of war, managed to capture the eastern city of Soledar before being bogged down in months of fierce fighting at the Bakhmut meat grinder.

At its peak, Wagner had around 50,000 mercenaries in Ukraine, according to the U.S. National Security Council.

Experts now say Wagner’s operations in Ukraine are being absorbed into other Russian state and paramilitary organisations, and one former Wagner commander recently told BBC Russian that the mercenaries had been ordered to “join the Ministry of Defence” or leave.

British intelligence has suggested that some of the group’s infantry units have been folded into the National Guard, a group established in 2016 and described as Putin’s “private army” and commanded by former bodyguard Viktor Zolotov.

The UK Ministry of Defence announced that parts of the Wagner Group will come under the control of the National Guard from October 2023. The ministry said the former Wagner Group troops, called “volunteer units”, will be deployed on six-month contracts to Ukraine and nine-month contracts to Africa.

Anton Elizarov, a longtime Wagner operative who is said to have led the mercenaries’ bloody operation in Bakhmut, appeared to confirm the merger a few days later. In a video posted to a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel, he said Wagner soldiers were present at the construction site of a “Work for Russia” camp and had joined the National Guard in the new formation.

British officials said: “The incorporation of former Wagner strike forces into the Rosgvardia volunteer army likely indicates Wagner’s successful subordination to Rosgvardia and strengthening of Russian government control over the Wagner group.”

A recent BBC Russia investigation has found that other ex-Wagner troops have also enlisted to fight Vladimir Putin’s dictator in Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, and his Akhmat forces.

A stark example of the group’s decline came when it was reported that its logo had been removed from the high-rise building it occupied in Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg.

Days after the putsch, Prigozhin reportedly made a deal with Putin to focus the group’s activities in Africa, supporting regimes and securing Russian resources. After his death, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov reportedly toured African capitals and assured officials that the services the group provided would not disappear.

Earlier this month, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) think tank said in response to Prigozhin’s death that “the Russian government’s interest is [Africa] Instead of weakening, it has grown stronger.”

The plan was proposed by Russia’s so-called “expeditionary force,” nicknamed Afrika Korps, and led by former GRU general Andrei Averyanov, who previously oversaw covert operations dedicated to destabilizing foreign governments with assassination attempts.

Experts told the BBC that Afrika Korps had effectively replaced Wagner in West Africa, and the unit boasted in Telegram that it offered recruits a salary of up to 110,000 rubles a year and service “under the guidance of competent commanders with extensive combat experience.”

In January, the country announced it was sending an initial contingent of 100 troops to Burkina Faso, and another 100 reportedly arrived in Niger in April.

Ruslan Trad, a security analyst at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC that Wagner has effectively “become Afrika Korps and now serves the full purposes of military intelligence and the Ministry of Defence”.

“In Africa, these soldiers are doing much the same thing: guarding trade routes and securing resources for Moscow to use to evade sanctions, as well as serving local military regimes and directing migration flows,” he noted.

PISM noted that Afrika Korps was intended to be used “more openly” than Wagner had done on the continent, with the aim of replacing Western, particularly French, influence on the continent.

BBC Russian reported that the only place Wagner still operates as a shadow of its former self is the Central African Republic (CAR), which is controlled by Prigozhin’s son Pavel.

“The Kremlin has given his successor permission to continue what his father was doing in Africa, provided it does not go against Russia’s interests,” a source who previously worked with Yevgeny Prigozhin told BBC Russian.

Last week, Le Monde newspaper reported that around 1,500 Wagner troops had supported local security forces in attacks on rebel-held areas.

However, PISM noted that the overall importance of the Central African Republic in Moscow’s strategic thinking is “declining.”

Dr MacLeod suggested Wagner’s original aim in the CAR was to demonstrate “proof of concept” that mercenary groups “could be used as an effective counter-terrorism tool”, but Moscow may now see that goal as having been achieved.

But she added that Wagner is “totally trapped” in the Central African Republic, making it harder to replace him with the newly developing Afrika Korps.

Despite the threat of Prigozhin’s revolt, the anniversary passed largely without incident in Russia on Sunday.

Dan Storev, from the watchdog group OVD-Info, told the BBC that Prigozhin’s legacy had been mainly left to those aligned with the Kremlin.

“Generally speaking, the Wagner Rebellion has had little to no real grassroots support, such as large rallies marking the anniversary, probably because it had no real anti-war message,” he noted.

“There are people organizing protests in Russia, but they are focused on anti-war activities. [Prigozhin]”