OTTAWA: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced fresh questions about his political future on Tuesday after his ruling Liberal party lost a safe seat in a by-election, highlighting his unpopularity.
Final results announced around 5 a.m. showed the official opposition Conservative Party won the Toronto-St. Paul constituency for the first time since 1988. The election was held following the resignation of the previous councillor.
The victory was the first since 2015, when the Conservatives toppled Liberal dominance in Toronto, a state that holds dozens of seats and is key to Trudeau’s ability to stay in power.
“This is just awful for the Liberal party,” said Philippe Fournier, editor-in-chief of 338Canada, a website that models national election projections.
The next federal election must be held by October 2025, and various opinion polls suggest that the Liberal Party, in power since November 2015, will be heavily defeated by the Conservative Party.
The loss suggests the Liberals may be in a weak position in some of the less-safe constituencies in the Toronto area, highlighting the challenges for Trudeau.
Some political observers say the Liberals might fare better if they distanced themselves from Trudeau, who has so far vowed to fight in the next election.
“Canadians are not at the stage to make a decision right now,” he said. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation last week.
Names being floated as possible leaders include Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada, and Public Security Minister Dominic Leblanc, a close friend of Trudeau’s.
But unlike Britain and Australia, where prime ministers are elected by parliament and can be removed relatively easily, Canadian party leaders are chosen at special conventions held on set dates, making it nearly impossible to remove a leader who doesn’t want to leave the party.
Governments that have been in power for several years tend to fare poorly in special elections, usually blamed on low voter turnout and voters wanting to send a message of protest.
But Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker noted that a relatively high percentage of eligible voters – 44% – turned out to vote.
“This was on a weekday Monday in a constituency with heavy traffic in Toronto. This shows a strong desire among voters to send a signal for change,” he said in a social media post.
The Conservatives say they have four priorities: repealing the carbon tax put in place by the Liberals, eliminating the government’s budget deficit, tackling the housing crisis and cracking down on crime.
The Liberal candidate was Leslie Church, a former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and a close aide to Prime Minister Trudeau.
Despite a high-profile campaign that included visits from several cabinet ministers, she received just 40.5% of the vote to the Conservative candidate’s 42.1%. The Liberals won the 2021 election 49% to 22%.
Trudeau’s office was not immediately available for comment, and he had no media appearances scheduled for Tuesday.
Published June 25, 2024 16:18 IST
