Get your free copy of Editor’s Digest
FT editor Roula Khalaf picks her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
China has long maintained a claim to the South China Sea, an affront to the security of its neighbors, global commerce and, according to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, international law. But Beijing has cleverly employed “salami slicing” tactics to expand its influence by building military facilities incrementally, but never at a pace that would force Washington to take military action.
But the latest spat with the Philippines suggests growing resentment toward China. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered the navy to step up security at Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef much closer to the Philippines than China is, by reinforcing the Sierra Madre, a stranded and aging ship that doubles as a Philippine military installation and which China hopes will sink.
Meanwhile, Beijing has become aggressive. Chinese paramilitaries have rammed Philippine ships and fired water cannons. The coast guard has threatened Manila’s boats with knives and hatchets. President Marcos has sought to draw international attention to the issue and has drawn a line, saying any Chinese killing of Philippine soldiers would be considered “very close to an act of war.”
The reef is in the middle of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and is the center of an active fishing industry. Loss of control over the reef threatens Philippine trade and security, harming the many Filipino fishermen who depend on the area. Confronting a superpower is risky, but the Philippines has run out of diplomatic tools.
Manila sued Beijing in arbitration under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and won. An arbitral tribunal in 2016 found that China had violated numerous territorial sovereignty claims of neighboring countries and recognized Philippine control of Second Thomas Shoal. But Beijing, a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, has ignored the ruling.
The Philippines has pleaded with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to take a firmer stance against China, but this has also been futile. Years of lobbying by former Marcos president Rodrigo Duterte to Beijing have not slowed Chinese expansion.
This puts the US, and the rest of the world, in a tricky position: The Philippines gives the US access to military bases and has a mutual defense pact with Washington, and any escalation could draw the two superpowers into conflict.
President Joe Biden, unsurprisingly, has taken a firm stance, making clear that the mutual defense pact between the two countries would apply to any attack on the Sierra Madre. Of course, the US’s position would be stronger if it were itself a signatory to the UN Security Council.
Biden is seeking to strengthen the Indo-Pacific buffer zone against China by strengthening commitments to the Philippines and Japan, which could also take further advantage of Chinese overreach. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, traditionally allies with China, have expressed their own concerns about Beijing’s actions. The United States should step up efforts to engage these countries diplomatically and could consider training and equipping their navies.
It is impossible to predict how the situation will develop from here. Beijing’s “non-lethal” measures are meant to lower the risk of confrontation. But the situation could easily escalate. Water cannons can end up causing deaths, after all. All sides need to be careful. It is positive that Beijing and Washington have reportedly increased communication in the past week. Beijing should stop brinkmanship and the US should continue to deter Chinese aggression without resorting to provocations.
