Nearly five years after residents of the remote island of Bougainville overwhelmingly voted for independence from Papua New Guinea (PNG), local discontent is growing as the political process remains stalled.
More than 97% of voters in the self-governing island region of eastern Papua New Guinea, with a population of about 300,000, chose independence over greater autonomy in a 2019 referendum. But the island’s political status cannot be changed until the result is ratified by Papua New Guinea’s parliament.
Parliamentary ratification, which was due to take place last year, did not happen after high-level talks stalled. Achieving ratification this year is “possible but not yet certain,” Professor Anthony Regan, from the Australian National University’s School of Pacific Studies, told Al Jazeera.
Talks between the PNG and Bougainville governments collapsed last year due to major differences over how the ratification process should proceed, mainly because Bougainville wants a simple majority in its parliament, while PNG insists it should require a two-thirds majority.
Both parties agree that an international mediator is needed to break the deadlock, but appointing one is likely to take time.
“I’m not very happy with the current progress. [of Bougainville’s Independence]“It’s been almost five years since the referendum and we are yet to see a positive response from the Papua New Guinea government,” Barbara Tane, president of the Bougainville Women’s League, told Al Jazeera.
“It’s very frustrating,” added Teresa Gyington, a local councillor for Arawa in central Bougainville. “The resolutions passed after the joint government meeting are not being respected… The Papua New Guinea government must be clear so that Bougainvilleans know.”
The pressure is mounting for Ishmael Toroama, a 56-year-old former rebel fighter who was elected Bougainville’s president in 2020 and given the mandate for statehood.
Last month, he called on Papua New Guinea’s parliament to deliver on the promise.
“I am committed to Bougainville’s independence,” he said in a statement.
Bougainville, reluctantly incorporated into the new nation of Papua New Guinea in 1975, has long wanted to manage its own affairs. Over the next decade, calls for separation grew amid anger over the severe environmental and social impacts of the Panguna copper mine in central Bougainville, which was then majority-owned by Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto and the PNG government.
In 1989, an armed landowner rebellion led to the mine’s closure, and Bougainville and Papua New Guinea were embroiled in civil war until 1998. A peace agreement in 2001 led to the establishment of an autonomous government in 2005, after which a referendum was held.
But because Bougainville residents voted forcefully for independence, PNG leaders have given the impression they do not want the region to secede.
Last month, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape stressed the need for approval from the Papua New Guinea parliament and acknowledged Bougainville’s request to provide an independent moderator for the debate.
“I personally sympathize with Bougainville’s wishes, but as Prime Minister I must uphold our country’s sovereignty and the rule of law,” Marape said in an official statement on May 9.
That could spell trouble. “If the national government says no and doesn’t want to ratify the referendum result, the options for Bougainville could be tough and heavy,” Peter Irwin, a landowner from Panguna in central Bougainville, told Al Jazeera in an interview.
ANU’s Regan said a “no” vote from Papua New Guinea would “make it clear that discussions about possible independence are over. He said discussions could explore other options short of independence, such as greater autonomy, though Bougainville’s attorney-general and independence minister, Ezekiel Massat, rejected that idea.
“There is open talk in Bougainville that leaders risk losing their lives if they compromise… This potential threat means the Bougainville government has little room to maneuver,” Regan said.
Mining controversy
Meanwhile, the Panguna mine, once at the heart of the civil war, is now a party to two competing lawsuits.
In May, a class action lawsuit was announced against Rio Tinto by some 4,000 local landowners and residents harmed by the mine’s former operations. The lawsuit, funded by an unnamed foreign investor, seeks billions of dollars in compensation for the mine’s social and environmental impacts, including the contamination of farmland and waterways.
“Rio Tinto has had more than 50 years, and more than 25 years since the end of the civil war, to do the right thing for the people of Bougainville and they have failed to do so. We are tired of waiting for justice and we are tired of Rio Tinto deciding alone what is best for Bougainville through its Heritage Impact Assessment,” Martin Migliori, lead plaintiff, told Al Jazeera.
A Rio Tinto spokesman told media the company was investigating the details of the allegations.
But Bougainville’s Toroama denounced the lawsuit: “I strongly condemn the court proceedings and see them as aimed at sabotaging Bougainville’s economic independence plans… The people of Bougainville have committed treason of the highest order by pursuing this class action lawsuit,” Toroama said on May 24.
The lawsuit could disrupt a government-backed mediation process already underway between Rio Tinto and stakeholders in Papua New Guinea and Bougainville, supported by the Australia-based Human Rights Law Centre. Through this effort, Rio Tinto has agreed to fund an impact assessment of the Panguna mine, with the first report due to be released in September.
Rio Tinto “will consider its position after seeing the outcome…” [But] “Both local communities and government stakeholders in Bougainville have high hopes that following the release of the first phase of the impact assessment report, Rio Tinto will fund remediation of the enormous problems left by the mine,” Keren Adams, legal director at the Melbourne Human Rights Law Centre, told Al Jazeera.
Communities living around the mine suffer from copper pollution in rivers and waterways, unusable land for farming due to the dumping of mine waste, and associated health problems such as respiratory and skin diseases.
Some Panguna residents are wary of the lawsuit. “I do not support Panguna mine action because it is a process that most of us do not know about, unlike the Heritage Impact Assessments supported by Bougainville and national governments, and we do not know who the financial guarantors are. The implications are big and it is dangerous,” Irwin said.
The Panguna mine, which the Bougainville government wants to reopen, is seen as the developing region’s only major source of income that could give it economic independence, although it could take a decade and billions of dollars to rehabilitate.
Only about 10 percent of Bougainville’s residents have access to electricity, and only 16 percent of homes have adequate sanitation. With an estimated 40 percent of the population under the age of 15, the island faces high unemployment. Less than 20 percent of this year’s government budget is domestically funded, leaving the island financially dependent on the central government and international donors.
Some experts believe Bougainville may consider unilateral declaration if Papua New Guinea does not recognize its independence. Such a move would make international support from donors and governments even more crucial.
Toroama visited Washington DC in November last year to ask US President Joe Biden’s administration for support for the region’s political ambitions and also publicly called on Australia for support.
