With just days to go until the UK general election on 4 July, there is no doubt some relief for party leaders after a month of gruelling campaigning across the country.
The election campaign does not appear to have significantly changed the political direction, with the centre-left Labour Party still the favourite to defeat Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and return to power for the first time in 14 years.
If the polls are broadly accurate, and even the Conservative Party acknowledges the possibility of defeat, Labour leader Keir Starmer will be forced to meet King Charles III at Buckingham Palace sometime on July 5 to get approval to form a government.
The Conservative Party’s already lackluster election campaign has been dogged this week by growing allegations about election gambling.
Betting Cards
An investigation into widespread betting by people linked to Mr Sunak on the date and outcome of the general election is still ongoing.
In the UK, there is a market for predicting the date of the general election. Unlike in most other democracies, the decision rests solely with the Prime Minister. In the US, for example, everyone knows that presidential and parliamentary elections are held on the first Tuesday of the week following the first Monday in November.
People close to Mr Sunak within the Conservative party and even the police officers involved in his security have been caught up in the investigation.
Reports suggest the total number of parliamentary candidates and MPs could be as high as 15. The Gambling Commission, the gambling industry regulator, has not confirmed how many were involved. But it said “rapid progress” had been made and it would continue to work closely with the Metropolitan police, who are also investigating the actions of the seven officers.
Whatever the figures, this was a sordid affair that highlighted the culture of gambling in Congress — and not just because of the date.
Starmer also suspended a Labour candidate this week for betting against him in the upcoming election.
Is it really the best?
The debate started again, and thankfully it’s safe to say it’s not happening anymore.
When Britain first held leaders’ debates in the 2010 general election, there was an element of novelty; this year it often feels like there’s a debate every other day. And for football fans, at least Germany’s Euros were broadcast, giving them another chance to watch, no matter how disappointing the result of the England-Scotland match.
The latest and final debate was broadcast on the BBC on Wednesday night, with Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer repeating the arguments they have made for weeks now: Mr Sunak said a Labour government would lead to higher taxes, but Mr Starmer said now was the time for change.
Perhaps the loudest applause came not from either of them, but to one member of the audience, Robert Blackstock.
“Are you two really the right people to be the next prime minister of this great country?” he asked.
Financial luck
Whoever becomes prime minister next Friday, it is clear that the economic situation will not be rosy given the twin impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But many experts say the two major parties have not been entirely truthful in their manifestos about the agenda going forward.
“Whoever takes power after the general election, unless they’re very lucky, they’re going to be faced with some tough choices very quickly,” said Paul Johnson, director of the highly respected Institute for Fiscal Studies. “Either raise taxes more than they said in their manifesto, cut some of their spending, or borrow more and be content with that debt rising for a long time.”
Luck is perhaps the most underrated political resource, which is why many Conservatives clearly opposed Mr Sunak’s decision to call an early election, when he could have waited until January.
And while there are signs the economy is improving, after years of hardship, voters are not feeling it. Britain’s economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year, according to official figures, faster than most major economies.
Some argue that if Mr Sunak had waited, voters might have started to feel better about their situation, which would have been a potential advantage for the Conservative party.
Permanent Voting
The overall outcome of the election will be known a few hours after polls close at 10pm local time on Thursday.
In fact, the first constituency results will probably be known before midnight – this is an election that many constituencies are taking seriously – with Blyth and Ashington expected to be the first to announce their results at around 11.30pm, followed by neighbouring Houghton and Sunderland South.
But it’s a competition, and there will be bragging rights between neighbors.
Whoever wins that election, Labour remains the favourite to win the most seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Figures from major pollsters vary, but all show Labour with a double-digit lead that has barely changed since Mr Sunak called the election in the rain on May 22.
The odds of Starmer becoming Prime Minister are roughly 40 to 1. This isn’t a huge bet – you’d need to bet £40 to win £1.
