French voters are set to cast their ballots on Sunday in the first of two rounds to elect 577 members of the National Assembly, ushering the country into a new political era.
The election came after French President Emmanuel Macron called for early voting following the crushing defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rally National (NR) party in the June 9 European Parliament elections.
Opinion polls suggest this trend will be confirmed in the next elections, where the NRs have a large lead with 36 percent of the vote, followed by the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) with 28.5 percent and Macron’s centrist coalition, Ensemble, with 21 percent.
If the results match the opinion polls, Mr Macron may have to live with a hostile prime minister, regardless of who is elected.
How are French elections conducted?
Voting opened at 6am GMT and is due to close at 6pm GMT in most parts of the country, although polling stations in Paris and other major cities will remain open until 6pm GMT.
To win a majority in the National Assembly, a party or coalition needs to win 289 seats – just over half the number in the lower house. Macron’s outgoing coalition fell short of that number, limiting its ability to push forward its legislative agenda.
For any of the 577 seats to be decided on Sunday, July 30, two conditions must be met: first, voter turnout must be at least 25 percent, and second, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the votes cast.
In a multiparty system like France’s, most elections usually have a second round, this one scheduled for July 7.
Only candidates who receive at least 12.5% of the vote in the first round can run in the second round, effectively narrowing the field.
Why is this election so different?
Traditionally, parliamentary elections are held immediately after presidential elections, so they reflect the same public sentiment, resulting in a prime minister from the same party as the president, who can then enjoy a strong mandate to implement policies.
But the balance of power has now shifted, and for the first time in 22 years France finds itself in a state of coexistence: with a deeply unpopular president and a government elected by a vote of discontent with Macron himself.
“This would mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of the presidential agenda,” said Emmanuel Dupuy, director of the Institute for European Perspectives and Security Studies, a foreign policy and political analysis think tank. “Macronism has already almost collapsed and the elections will see it completely disappear.”
How did we get here?
Macron came to power in 2017 on a wave of support, pledging to forge a centrist coalition that would unite the moderate left and right. But his rhetoric soon began to sound alien to suburban ears, earning him the nickname Jupiter. His economic reforms were too right-wing for the liberals who had previously supported him, and his style of governing was seen as too autocratic by many voters on both the right and the left.
With France on the brink of a new political era, the elections could mark the end of Jupiter’s solo show.
“Macron runs the country like a company CEO,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate research fellow at Chatham House, “but a country is not a company and Macron has failed to build alliances with partners. He is a lone wolf.”
One of the most visible signs of Trump’s isolation was the violent “yellow vest” protests of 2018. What began as low- and middle-income workers outraged by plans to increase diesel taxes has expanded into a broader movement against what it sees as the president’s pro-elite bias. Trump’s second term was marked by a highly controversial bill introduced in 2023 to extend pension benefits by two years, which faced widespread opposition and became another major challenge at home.
And while Le Pen won a second term in 2022 by threatening rather than engaging voters about the possibility of the far-right taking over the presidency, the tactic appears to have tired many. “There is a sense of anger. People are tired of threatening Le Pen, while they feel compelled to vote for Macron to get rid of the far-right,” de Bendern said.
What is Le Pen’s “dememonization”?
Meanwhile, over the past two decades, Le Pen has carefully crafted a so-called “demonetization” strategy aimed at broadening the party’s support base while at the same time softening its radical rhetoric to distance it from many of the references that made NR so toxic for some voters.
The party has long been notoriously associated with racist, xenophobic and anti-Semitic slanders – her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was convicted of hate speech for saying Nazi gas chambers were “part of history” and was expelled from the party in 2015. Instead, Le Pen has persuaded the moderate right that she is not a threat to democracy, and she has conquered areas traditionally close to the far left, especially within the party, with promises of social welfare policies and tougher restrictions on immigration.
“many [by voting NR] “They are protesting against a system that is taking away what is rightfully theirs and that favours mainly foreigners and takes unfair advantage of them,” said Baptiste Roger Laquin, a historian and political analyst specialising in far-right parties in Europe.
The party’s current prime ministerial candidate is Jordan Bardella, an impeccably dressed 28-year-old who looks like a cross between The Wolf of Wall Street and Clark Kent, but he’s from the suburbs and speaks to tens of thousands of followers on TikTok as well as on the streets. He has no experience in national politics.
Meanwhile, far-left parties have coalesced under the New Popular Front, whose most vocal voice has been its support for the Palestinian cause amid the Gaza conflict, a stance that has made it popular among young voters and Muslims.
In contrast, NR strongly supports Israel, condemning “massacres on Israeli territory” and attacking Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left Insubordinate France party, for not calling the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel a “terrorist attack,” causing friction within Israel.
What does a victory for the far right mean?
The most serious impact of an NR victory would be at home: the party has said anti-Semitism is an issue for left-wing parties, but has shifted its focus to immigration and Islam. France is home to Europe’s largest Muslim community, where families have been settled for generations.
Bardella did not say what “specific laws” he would push for to combat “Islamist ideology,” but said the party had worked in the past to ban Muslims from wearing headscarves in public and facilitate the closure of mosques.
The RN’s top priorities include imposing strict border controls, abolishing birthright citizenship (a centuries-old practice that has granted citizenship to people born in France to foreign parents) and introducing a constitutional “national priority” through a referendum, which would exclude people without a French passport from social security rights.
“Obviously NR is still xenophobic, so foreigners have something to lose and if NR is elected, foreigners who don’t have European ancestry will lose something,” said Roger Laquin.
What about foreign policy?
With his eye on gaining power, Mr. Bardella has softened or reversed some of the party’s traditional positions, including reversing course on Ukraine, saying he would continue to provide military support to Kiev while rejecting accusations that some party members have ties to the Kremlin.
Still, given Macron’s unwavering stance on Ukraine and France’s role as a pillar of the European Union, a government led by Bardella that is less committed to the European project would mark a shift.
Bardella said at a press conference on Monday that he opposed sending French troops and weaponry capable of attacking targets on Russian territory.
“He is currently trying to reassure non-NR voters and possibly future EU partners, but it is clear that a government of his would create huge tensions between France and the rest of the EU,” said Roger Laquin, a former deputy editor-in-chief of the think tank Le Grand Continent.
Unlike Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who shifted to a more pro-Atlantic, pro-NATO and pro-EU position years before winning the 2022 election, NR’s shift “sounds very situational,” Roger-Laquin explains.
Still, if the far-right wins the election, observers say they will likely avoid any major upsets in the end because they are playing a long game, with their ultimate goal being to win the presidency in 2027.
