French voters headed to the polls on Sunday ahead of an unusual moment in the country’s political history: the first early parliamentary elections since the Nazi occupation during World War Two that could see the country’s first far-right government assume power — or fail to win a majority.
After a second round of voting on July 7 and a hectic election campaign, the outcome remains highly uncertain with the three major political forces in contention – the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, and the New Popular Front coalition, which includes the centre-left, the Greens and far-left forces.
Let’s take a closer look:
How does it work?
France has a complex electoral system that is not proportional to national support for political parties. MEPs are elected by district. To be elected on a Sunday, a candidate for parliament must receive at least 50% of the vote on that day.
If they can’t, the top two candidates, along with any other candidate who receives the support of at least 12.5 percent of registered voters, will advance to a second round of voting.
In some cases, three or four candidates advance to the second round, but some drop out to give other candidates a better chance – a tactic often used in the past to thwart far-right candidates.
Leaders of the major parties are expected to announce their strategies between the two rounds of voting, making the outcome of the second round highly uncertain and dependent on political maneuvering and voter reactions.
The far-right National Rally party, which is leading the pre-election polls, is hoping to win an absolute majority.meaning they would win at least 289 of the 577 seats.
The lower house of France’s bicameral parliament, the National Assembly, is the more powerful of the two chambers, having the final say in the legislative process compared to the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron has said he has no plans to step down before his term ends in 2027.
What is cohabitation?
If a political force other than his centrist coalition wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister who belongs to that new majority.
This situation is called “cohabitation” in France, The government will implement policies that differ from those planned by the president.
France’s modern republic has experienced coexistence three times, the last time from 1997 to 2002, under the rule of conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, leads the government and introduces legislation.
“In the case of coexistence, the policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” said political historian Jean Garrigue.
During this time, the president has less power domestically, but retains some authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s military, and holds the codes for nuclear weapons.
“The president has the power to sign or not sign government ordinances and decrees, which means he can block or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects,” Garrigues added.
“But the prime minister has the power to put these ordinances and orders to a vote in Parliament and can override the president’s reluctance,” he pointed out.
Who will lead defense and foreign policy?
Under the previous policy of coexistence, defence and foreign policy were considered the president’s informal “exclusive domain”, and the president was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to ensure France spoke with one voice abroad.
But the far-right/far-left coalition’s current views in both of these areas are fundamentally different from Macron’s approach, and any possibility of coexistence is likely to be tense.
According to the constitution, “the president is the head of the military, but it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“The president’s powers in the foreign affairs sphere are also significantly limited,” Garrigues added.
Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally, said that if he were prime minister he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – something Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse to allow France to hand over long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets inside Russia.
If the left-wing coalition wins the election, it could undermine France’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
The New Popular Front’s platform plans to “immediately recognize the state of Palestine” and “cut off the French government’s criminal support for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Macron has previously argued that recognition of a Palestinian state should come at a “useful moment”, suggesting that the war between Israel and Hamas would not allow such a move at the moment.
What happens if there is no majority?
The president can nominate the prime minister from the bloc with the most seats in the National Assembly, as has been the case with Macron’s own centrist coalition since 2022.
But the National Rally has already said it rejects such an option, saying an alliance between other parties could quickly lead to the far-right government being toppled by a vote of no confidence.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that’s an unlikely option given political differences.
Another complicated option, experts say, would be to appoint a non-party “expert government,” but it would still need majority approval in parliament. Such a government would mostly deal with day-to-day operations rather than implementing major reforms.
Garrigues said that if political talks dragged on over the summer holidays or the Paris Olympics, which run from July 26 to August 11, a “transition period” could be ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government would “remain in charge of current affairs” and take further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly, the Fifth Republic’s constitution seems flexible enough to withstand these complexities,” Melody Moc-Gruet, a public law expert at Sciences Po in Paris, said in a written statement. “Faced with this experimental situation, the system is more robust than it appears.”
“But there is another unknown in this equation: the ability of the public to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.
