Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right French Rally National (RN) party and member of parliament, is escorted by French President Emmanuel Macron after a meeting at the Elysee Palace. File image/Reuters
Today (30 June) marks one of the most significant political moments for France in recent history, with two separate legislative elections taking place on 30 June and 7 July.
The outcome of this election will have major implications not only for France itself but also for France’s role in a broader European context. At stake is the possibility that the far-right Rally National (RN) party could win a majority in parliament, which could lead to significant changes in domestic policy and international relations under the leadership of Marine Le Pen’s party.
How did this happen?
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early elections came on the heels of a crushing defeat for his centrist Renaissance party in European Parliament elections.
The surprising move is unprecedented in recent French political history and is motivated by Macron’s desire to regain power in a political climate increasingly dominated by polarization and populist sentiment.
In Macron’s own words, the call for elections was in response to the need for a new coalition government that could better reflect France’s diverse political spectrum while countering the “extremist fever” spreading across the country.
Without a majority in parliament, the party has frequently had to rely on presidential decrees to pass bills, a practice that has strained relations with the opposition and stoked public discontent.
What is the French electoral process?
France’s parliamentary elections are held in a two-round system, with candidates competing for 577 seats in the National Assembly.
To ensure victory in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote and the support of at least 25% of registered voters.
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If they fail, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff election, along with any candidate who receives more than 12.5 percent of registered voters, ensuring a fierce second-round election.
This system, historically designed to curb extreme political influence, now faces a crucial test as the RN, which currently holds 88 seats in parliament, gains increasing mainstream support and seeks to significantly expand its influence.
Who are the key players in the French elections?
The candidates competing in this election represent a range of ideological and strategic alliances. Macron’s Renaissance, the largest party in the current parliament with more than 170 members, is a centrist and pro-European party, but its public support has dwindled amid its controversial reforms. Its approval rating is 19%, and its electoral prospects are unclear amid shifting alliances and voter sentiment.
In contrast, the RN, led by Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella, has emerged as the main opposition party, polling 33 percent of the vote. Despite efforts to soften its image, the party remains rooted in populist and nationalist rhetoric, advocating policies such as “national preference” for French citizens and stricter immigration controls.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s indomitable France, the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing coalition of the Socialists, Communists and Greens, offers a strong alternative that could win up to 30 percent of the vote. Their platform promises to roll back Macron’s pension and immigration reforms, highlighting the stark choice between the far-right RN and their progressive policies.
What will be the outcome?
Predicting the outcome of the election remains uncertain given the unstable political situation. Analysts predict that while the RN may not win an absolute majority, it could significantly increase its number of seats in parliament, potentially tripling its current number of seats.
This scenario would put Macron in the precarious position of having to negotiate a legislative compromise with the opposition, which could lead to government gridlock and political instability.
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Moreover, there is a growing possibility of “coexistence” in which the president and prime minister would be elected from opposing parties, a situation not seen since the tenures of Jacques Chirac and Lionel Jospin in the late 1990s.
Whether Macron can appoint a prime minister acceptable to a potentially hostile parliament could determine the effectiveness of his governance for the next few years.
How will France’s role in the EU be affected?
Beyond the domestic implications, a growing parliamentary polarization could have implications for France’s role in the European Union and its global alliances. Issues such as economic policy, defense commitments and international diplomacy will be subject to intense scrutiny and negotiation, which could affect France’s stance on key international issues.
Whether France leans towards a far-right majority, a left-wing resurgence, or a fragmented coalition government, the outcome will undoubtedly reverberate across Europe, influencing policies and alliances in an increasingly divided geopolitical environment. Europe’s eyes are fixed sharply on the upcoming election results to anticipate what they may mean for the future of French democracy and its impact on the broader continent.
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