- China could seize Taiwan without invading, according to a think tank report.
- The report said China could take control of Taiwan by “isolating” it.
- The report comes amid rising tensions between China and Taiwan.
A leading think tank has said China could seize control of Taiwan without invading.
China has long viewed Taiwan as a separatist province destined to fall under its rule, but sees it as a separate entity from mainland China, with its own government, constitution and a staunchly pro-independence president.
A report from the Washington, DC-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said China has not ruled out using force to subjugate Taiwan, but that there are possibilities for it to exert power over the island without resorting to military means.
China may reportedly initiate full or partial “gray zone” quarantines to restrict access to Taiwanese ports, using its coast guard and other law enforcement agencies.
While this would not completely cut off Taiwan from the world, it “asserts China’s control over Taiwan by dictating the conditions for entry and exit from Taiwan,” the report said.
“The main aim is to force countries and companies to comply with China’s terms. If foreign powers largely comply with the quarantine measures, it will strengthen China’s assertion of control over Taiwan and weaken Taiwan’s claims to sovereignty,” the report added.
How the quarantine unfolds
The China Coast Guard and China Maritime Safety Administration will lead the quarantine and will likely patrol the waters around the island and seize any vessels that may violate quarantine conditions.
These forces could be supported by other air, naval, cyber, missile and other forces to “intimidate Taiwan, deter external intervention, and provide critical intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance,” according to the report.
This follows a separate report published last month by experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War which looked at the possibility of a potential Chinese “coercive operation” that, while also stopping short of an invasion, would bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.
China has already begun carrying out some of these operations, stepping up military drills around the island.
The report also noted that while the United States still needs to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, the possibility of a coercive operation represents a “serious flaw in U.S. strategic thinking.”
But Siddharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the Royal Institute for Security Studies, told CNN that “historical evidence shows that even strict lockdowns have limited coercive power, and that limited quarantines can lead to rallying around the flag effect.”
Why are quarantine measures appropriate in China?
According to the CSIS report, quarantine measures may be attractive to China for several reasons.
First, unlike an invasion or blockade (the latter of which CSIS defines as “a military-led operation to significantly reduce traffic flows into Taiwan”), a quarantine “is not considered an act of war.”
“The measure would also be more reversible and would not require closing the Taiwan Strait,” the report added.
The Taiwan Relations Act requires the United States to ensure Taiwan has the means to defend itself but is silent on whether to send in U.S. troops in case of an invasion. Nevertheless, President Joe Biden said in 2022 that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if China invaded.
But the CSIS report said “law enforcement-led grey zone operations” would complicate third-party intervention.
Tensions between China and Taiwan are rising day by day.
Relations between Taiwan and China remain tense.
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said at a conference in Singapore earlier this month that the idea of peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan was being “eroded” by Taiwanese separatists and outside forces.
“We will take decisive action to prevent Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a press statement last April that Taiwan was the “core” of China’s interests, adding that “it is an illusion and a blow to anyone who expects China to compromise or make concessions on the Taiwan issue.”
Beijing also continues to conduct military exercises around the island.
China last month launched a two-day “United Sword” drill around Taiwan, conducting “joint naval and air combat readiness patrols, comprehensive joint control of the battlefield, and joint precision strikes on key targets,” according to Chinese state media.
The training included mock fighter jet attacks and exercises involving multiple naval vessels.
Further large-scale training exercises were conducted in April 2023 and August 2022.
Tom Shugart, a former US naval officer and senior fellow at the think tank Center for a New American Security, previously told BI that the Chinese military has “effectively started to step up the pace of large-scale exercises that have a lot of blockade elements to them”.
He added that recent exercises in May showed that China’s fleet is “highly suited” to blockade or isolate Taiwan.
