In my analysis of the 2024 general election results, I have used rally data to argue that prominent leaders’ campaigning is unnecessary. However, I find that while the probability of victory remains the same, there is a difference in voter mobilization. Using an extensive dataset of formal campaign activities by the two most arguably important national leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, I demonstrate that their campaign events increased vote mobilization for their respective parties. Such leaders remain important in Indian politics. Parties and coalitions continue to rely on national leaders to secure votes across constituencies.
PM Modi is found to have participated in formal election activities (rallies or roadshows) in over 180 Parliamentary Constituencies (PCs) in 24 states and union territories from the day the elections were announced till the end of the seventh and final phase of campaigning. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi visited around 70 PCs in 20 states and union territories during the same period. Their activities are the largest single-person campaign in this election and their influence is worthy of investigation.
Did the presence of PM Modi and Rahul have an impact on the electorate? To assess the impact, I rely on the total voter mobilisation by political parties. Voter mobilisation measures the proportion of the total electorate that a political party was able to successfully mobilise, i.e. attract votes to the polling booth. For example, if a party gets 50% votes in a constituency and the total voter turnout is 60%, then the party has mobilised 30% of all voters/electors. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and Congress mobilised 24% and 7.74% voters respectively.
Voter mobilization gives insight into the ability of leaders to appeal to more voters and get them to vote for them. My analysis shows that vote mobilization for the BJP at the PC level was on average 2.02 percentage points higher in PCs where Modi campaigned compared to those where he did not visit. Similarly, vote mobilization for the Indian National Congress was 2.59 percentage points higher in constituencies where Rahul Gandhi campaigned. The difference in vote mobilization is significant given that a typical Indian Lok Sabha constituency has at least 1.5 million voters. More specifically, in the 2024 elections, several constituencies were closely contested and around 60 constituencies had a vote margin of 2.5% or less. Hence, the role of such national leaders in the party’s election campaign is crucial.
Moreover, political parties strategically position influential leaders. For example, Priyanka Gandhi, the Congress bench captain in Uttar Pradesh, held around 40 official campaign events in Rae Bareli, a crucial seat for the Congress.
Why does voter mobilization increase when influential leaders like Modi and Gandhi campaign in their constituencies? There are several possible reasons, centered around two aspects: voter mobilization and injecting energy into party cadres.
The presence of an influential national leader can elevate the debate among voters to issues of national importance, and such a leader is likely to be perceived favorably. The presence of a national leader also indicates a personalization of the seemingly distant and alien national politics, i.e., a leader who runs the affairs of state on behalf of the people engages directly with them. Moreover, the presence of a leader also allows voters to engage directly with the ideology of the party, as such influential leaders are also ideological carriers (Chibber and Verma, 2018). The role of leaders in mobilizing votes for parties is also evident in the CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey, where around six in ten respondents said that their preference for the prime minister influenced their vote choice.
Similarly, when top leaders spend time in their constituencies, party members are also motivated. They feel an added sense of responsibility to secure seats for the party. Moreover, party members may believe that their sweat and sincerity have somehow been justified and renew their passion to work for the party’s success in the PC.
Nevertheless, there is no denying that Prime Ministers Modi and Rahul Gandhi played a significant role in influencing the election outcome. To claim that their influence was marginal is a gross misunderstanding of the influence of these two leaders in shaping Indian politics. This analysis reinforces the prevailing view since 2014 that Indian politics is highly leader-centric.
Disclaimer
The views expressed above are the author’s own.
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