The far-right National Rally party took a big lead in France’s first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, pollsters projected, putting it closer to forming a government in the second round, dealing a major blow to centrist President Emmanuel Macron and his risky decision to call a surprise vote.
President Macron dissolved the National Assembly on June 9 after a crushing defeat to the French National Rally in the European Parliament elections, gambling that with France’s own fate hanging in the balance, an anti-immigration party with historical ties to anti-Semitism would not repeat the victory.
But that didn’t turn out to be the case. French pollsters predicted that the Rally National and its allies would win about a third of the national vote on Sunday, and Macron warned that France could end up with its first far-right government since World War II unless voters unite to thwart that scenario in next Sunday’s second round of voting.
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“The far right is opening the door to power,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Atal, who twice called the Rally National’s policy pledges “disastrous” and said “not a single vote should be cast for the Rally National” in the second round of voting.
French pollsters projected that Macron’s centrist coalition came in third in the first round, far behind the National Rally and a new left-wing coalition of parties that have banded together to stop him from taking power.
A parliamentary majority would allow National Rally leader Marine Le Pen to install her 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister, completing a years-long effort to rebrand the party to make it less repulsive to mainstream voters. She took over what was then called the National Front from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was convicted multiple times for racist and anti-Semitic hate speech.
Still, the national rally is not quite there yet, and a week of more intense campaigning is planned before a crucial final vote next Sunday, with the election’s ultimate outcome unclear.
Speaking to a jubilant crowd waving blue, white and red French flags, Ms. Le Pen called on supporters and voters who did not back her party in the first round to lead it to victory and secure a supermajority in parliament, which would force an awkward power-sharing arrangement between Mr. Bardella and Mr. Macron, who has said he will not step down until his term expires in 2027.
Only a second round of voting will reveal whether Ms. Le Pen’s party and its allies can secure the absolute majority needed to comfortably form a government and follow through on a pledge to dismantle many of Mr. Macron’s core policies and foreign policy platform, including preventing France from deploying long-range missiles in Ukraine in a war against all-out Russian aggression. The National Rally has historical ties to Russia.
A more confrontational stance from far-right parties towards the European Union, plans to roll back President Macron’s pension reforms and the National Rally’s promises to increase voters’ purchasing power without detailing how it would pay for it could also spook European financial markets.
Some polling agencies predict that in a best-case scenario for the far-right, the National Rally and its allies could collectively clear the 289-seat threshold needed for a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.
But pollsters have predicted that the far-right may lose out in the second round and no party may have a clear majority. The two-round system makes predictions difficult. Official results from the first round are due to be announced late Sunday.
Already on Sunday night, far-right rivals were preparing to withdraw some of their own candidates from the second round in order to concentrate votes against the National Rally.
Polls estimate turnout will be at least 66 percent, the highest for the first round of a parliamentary election in the past 27 years.
Many French voters are frustrated with inflation, other economic problems and a leadership under President Macron that they see as arrogant and out of touch with people’s lives. The National Rally party has been channeling that frustration, particularly through online platforms such as TikTok.
The national rally focused on the high cost of living and immigration, issues that matter most to many voters, but the movement was marred by a rise in hate speech.
“People don’t like what’s going on,” said Cynthia Justin, 44. “People feel like they’ve lost a lot over the last few years. People are angry. I’m angry.” With hate speech on the rise, she added, there’s a need to voice frustrations against those who hold or seek power.
She said it’s important for her to vote as a woman because women haven’t always had the right to vote, and “it’s even more important because I’m a black woman. There’s a lot at stake on this day.”
The Rally National has questioned the right of French-born people to citizenship and seeks to restrict the rights of French citizens with dual citizenship, which critics say violates human rights and is a threat to France’s democratic ideals.
Voter Philippe Lampeilleur, 64, said he is tired of politicians from the left, right and centre, who he sees as incapable of working together on issues like making sure people have somewhere to live and enough to eat. “By default, we vote for the best option,” Lampeilleur said. “I think voting is better than doing nothing.”
In New Caledonia, a restive French Pacific territory, polling stations were closed early under a curfew that authorities extended until July 8. Riots broke out there last month, leaving nine people dead, as Macron’s government sought to amend the French constitution and change voter rolls, which the indigenous Kanak people feared would lead to further marginalization of them, who have long sought to leave France.
Voters in France’s other overseas territories – Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and French Polynesia – as well as voters voting in offices opened by embassies and consulates across the Americas, cast their ballots on Saturday.
