Without a clear majority, France could face a long period of political deadlock, weakening the government’s ability to implement policies effectively.
 "French elections: Macron on the defensive as National Rally gains power")
Nandini Singh New Delhi
France prepares for a crucial week of political campaigning starting Monday after the far-right National Rally party won a landslide victory in the first round of parliamentary elections, dealing a major blow to President Emmanuel Macron and mobilizing an unprecedented number of voters.
The state decides
Voters elect their representatives to the 577-seat National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament and its most influential chamber. A second round of votes, scheduled for July 7, could completely change the political landscape in France. If a new majority emerges against Macron, he would be forced to appoint a political rival as prime minister, which could lead to a major shift in French domestic and foreign policy. This scenario would be particularly dramatic if Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the National Rally, were to become prime minister.
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Without a clear majority, France could face prolonged political deadlock. Macron, who has ruled out resignation, cannot call new parliamentary elections for another year, raising the possibility of instability.
The historic rise of the far-right
On Sunday, the Rally National made history by coming out on top in national parliamentary elections for the first time with 34 percent of the vote. The left-leaning coalition, the New Popular Front, won 29 percent of the vote, while Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and its allies received 22 percent. Mainstream conservatives lagged behind with about 10 percent.
Key points from the first round of the French elections
High voter turnout
Unlike past parliamentary elections, which have typically seen low turnout, the general elections called by President Macron saw turnout exceed 65%, a significant increase from 47.5% in 2022. The surge reflected high voter turnout and confidence among voters that their vote could have a decisive impact on Macron’s term in office.
Unpredictable results
To win an absolute majority, a party needs 289 seats. Projections suggest the Rally National could win 240 to 310 seats, while the New Popular Front could win 150 to 200. Macron’s Renaissance party is projected to win 70 to 120 seats. However, France’s complex electoral system often requires a second runoff election, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the second round based on the results of the first round.
Complex spill
In runoff elections, some districts may have multiple candidates, further complicating predictions. More than 200 three-way contests are expected this year, up from just eight in 2022, due to higher voter turnout. Many parties, particularly left-wing parties, are planning to withdraw their third-place candidate to prevent a far-right victory, but some of Macron’s allies are opposed to withdrawing if it could favor the far-left France Indomitable party.
Potential for far-right rule and gridlock
The most likely outcomes are either a National Rally-led government or political deadlock. If the National Rally wins an absolute majority, Macron would have to appoint Bardella as prime minister, leading to a far-right domestic policy agenda. In foreign policy, major clashes could occur, especially regarding France’s role in the European Union and its support for Ukraine. If the National Rally fails to live up to expectations, Macron could find his center-right coalition sandwiched between large forces on the right and left, leading to an unmanageable parliament.
The changing political landscape in France
The success of the National Rally meant the party moved from the political fringe into the mainstream, nearly doubling its vote share from 2022. A survey by polling agency Ipsos highlighted that the party has expanded its voter base and now enjoys significant support from retirees, women, young people, higher-income earners and urban residents.
The outcome of the upcoming second round of voting will be crucial as France enters a crucial election week. France is on the brink of either a far-right government or long-term political instability. The next few days will be crucial in determining the future direction of French politics.
(Based on the opinion of the agency)
