Today’s MLB betting trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a compilation of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and eligible for MLB games on Monday, July 1, 2024. This report is intended to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and the rest of the VSiN analytics team go through when handicapping the daily MLB boards.
AJ’s angle
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
“9” is the magic number of points to beat the other team in the next game.
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if a team is playing at home or away. If they scored 9 or more runs in their last game, they have a winning record 1,571-1,461 (51.8%) but have incurred a loss of -172.85 units due to overpricing by oddsmakers. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which means a lot in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (Fade): Houston (-142 in TOR)
tendency: COL is not much better in the NL Central/East (7-21, -10.16 units)
System Match: Faded Colorado (+130 vs. MIL)
tendency: Mackenzie Gore is 4-10 (-8.15 units) in home games against losing teams over the past two seasons.
System Match: Fade Washington (-105 vs NYM)
tendency: HOU is under-tending against the AL Central/West (11-22 O/U)
System Match: Play Under Total (Odds 8.5)
Strategies using MLB DraftKings betting split data
One of the most promoted features on the VSiN.com website, and one that we think is a great resource for bettors, is our Betting Splits page, a page we built using data kindly provided by DraftKings that provides a detailed breakdown of point spreads, money lines, total money and ticket splits.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website ahead of Opening Day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 systematic MLB betting trend strategies to effectively use the DK betting split data developed for the 2023 season: Below are the systems and eligible plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET based on Steve Makinen’s betting split system: These are subject to and may change, so for optimal use, keep track of the system and check eligibility right up until the first pitch.
>>VSiN MLB Betting Split
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting system based on VSiN’s stake split.
As a general rule, if you recognize a return of around -10% on all majorities and adopt the use of betting splits this season, choose to fade out the majority of your handle and bets to make them profitable follow angles, unless otherwise indicated in one of the systems below.
DK MLB Betting Split System #2: Last season, when the majority betting groups were less numerous, they proved to be at least reasonably successful, in fact the benchmark was above 60%. When the majority share of bets fell in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%), +0.88 units, an ROI of just over 0%. This is not the rate of return professional bettors would want, but it is not a loss and is certainly better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Match: Not yet today
DK MLB Betting Split System #8: Last season there was a clear pattern of ups and downs in the performance of most handle bettors from month to month, with ROI of -1.3% in March/April, abysmal -20.6% in May and rising to -6.9% in June. In July, it fell to -15.1%. This was followed by August’s return of -3.5% and finally September/October’s decline of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Split System #10: Last season, when over 85% of the bets were on either side of the MLB Run Line bet, this super-majority group performed much better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is obviously a very small return, but when you factor in the big losses across all MLB betting categories, it’s almost 8% higher than the ROI return of the overall majority bets, and if that continues into 2024, it will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Match: Not yet today (watching Milwaukee vs. COL).
MLB Bullpen System
The following MLB betting trend system and qualifying plays are from a weekly updated series handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to use a bullpen system
Higher-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or teams that are -190 or higher and have a win probability of 19% or higher, were 1,200-916 in the 2023 regular season, +45.66 units, for a 2.2% return on investment for the season. Approaching the midpoint of the 2024 regular season, through June 23, they are 585-477, -2.95 units, which is still below normal standards despite some solid weeks.
System Match: Milwaukee, New York Mets, Houston
(There are no other qualified bullpen systems today)
MLB Extreme Stats System
The following systems and qualifying plays are taken from an article titled “MLB Extreme Stats Systems,” which details eight MLB betting trend systems for teams to bet on based on notable statistics that the team has earned in their previous games.
“9” is the magic number of points to beat the other team in the next game.
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if a team is playing at home or away. If they scored 9 or more runs in their last game, they have a winning record 1,571-1,461 (51.8%) but have incurred a loss of -172.85 units due to overpricing by oddsmakers. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which means a lot in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (Fade): Houston (-142 in TOR)
A home team that scored in the previous game is actually a bad bet in the next game
Going back one more season to 2018, home teams that finished games with five or more points won 2764 times out of 3176 (53.5%) more often, but lost out to bettors by -391.12 units, or an ROI of -6.6%.
System Match (Fade): Colorado (+130 vs MIL)
MLB Winning Streak System
The following systems and qualifying plays are excerpts from our mid-season article, “MLB Win Streak Handicaps,” which details 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting on a team’s winning or losing streak.
There are no qualifying matches today
Today’s MLB Strength Rating
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com’s MLB tab.
According to the Makinen Strength Rating projections, today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15+ points) are:
System Match: Toronto +120 (+15 behind)
Today’s underrated favorites (over 15 points) according to the Makinen Strength Rating predictions:
System Match: Milwaukee -155 (+35 difference)
According to the Makinen Strength Rating projections, today’s total projection is in favor of the Over (0.5 runs or more).
System Match: NYM-WSH 8 or higher (+0.6)
MLB Team Status MLB Betting Trendspot
The following MLB betting trends by team situation and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB situation report, which is updated daily.
(951) New York-NL (40-41) vs (952) Washington (39-44)
tendency: NYM tends to be over on the road (22-10 O/U)
System Match: Total overs played (8 over/under)
(953) Milwaukee (50-34) vs (954) Colorado (28-55)
tendency: MIL is slightly underperforming for LH starters (6-12 O/U)
System Match: Play Under Total (Odds 11.5)
tendency: COL is not much better in the NL Central/East (7-21, -10.16 units)
System Match: Faded Colorado (+130 vs MIL)
(955) Houston (42-41) vs (956) Toronto (38-45)
tendency: HOU is under-tending against the AL Central/West (11-22 O/U)
System Match: Play Under Total (Odds 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Status MLB Betting Trend Spot
In the following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays by situation, we look at how current starting pitchers have performed in similar situations over the past five years.
(951) New York-NL (40-41) vs (952) Washington (39-44)
tendency: Mackenzie Gore is 4-10 (-8.15 units) in home games against losing teams over the past two seasons.
System Match: Faded Washington (-105 vs. NYM)
(953) Milwaukee (50-34) vs (954) Colorado (28-55)
tendency: COL is 2-8 (-6.75 points) against NL Central opponents with starting pitcher Austin Gomber over the past three seasons.
System Match: Faded Colorado (+130 vs. MIL)
Top betting trends for MLB matchup series
Series #8: Milwaukee vs. Colorado, July 1 (Mon.) – July 4 (Thurs.)
Trend: In the last 16 meetings between Colorado and Milwaukee, the home team is 13-3 (81.25%, +9.65 units).
– The ROI for this trend is 60.3%
System Match: Consider a matchup with Colorado (+130 vs MIL)
Team-specific momentum build/decline angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are excerpted from an article titled “Betting Opportunities After MLB Rivalry Series.”
There will be no qualifying momentum angle today (next one is on Friday, July 5th)
