With the final outcome still unclear, France’s staunchly anti-immigration Rally National party and its long-taboo far-right opponents rushed on Monday to take advantage of an inconclusive first round of unexpected parliamentary elections.
Sunday’s first round put the Rally National closer than ever to winning power, but voters could still block its path to power in a decisive second round. France now faces two scenarios in what is sure to be a tightly contested final week of elections.
The Rally National and its allies won the first round after a surge in support but are not yet the overall winner and could secure a parliamentary majority in the final round next Sunday – or fall short, blocked at the final hurdle by opponents still keen to prevent France from forming its first far-right government since World War Two.
Either scenario is full of uncertainty for France and its influence in Europe and beyond. “Just imagine France, the country of human rights, the country of enlightenment, suddenly becoming a far-right state. It’s unthinkable,” said Olivier Faure of the Socialist party, which is comfortably holding on to its seat.
The far right has exploited voter dissatisfaction with inflation, low incomes and the sense that many French families are being left behind by globalization.
National Rally leader Marine Le Pen’s party campaigned on promises to boost consumer spending power, drastically cut immigration and take a tougher stance on European Union rules, and her anti-immigration policies have helped many French people of immigrant descent feel unwelcome in their own country.
Winning more than 289 members of the 577-seat National Assembly would give Le Pen an absolute majority and give her the leverage to pressure President Emmanuel Macron to accept her 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, as France’s new prime minister.
Such a power-sharing arrangement between Bardella and the centrist president would be messy and conflict-prone, as Macron has said he will not step down until his second term expires in 2027.
Approaching the 289-seat mark could also work in Le Pen’s favour, as she could attract enough new MPs to her side by promising them a government post.
A National Coalition government in France would be another victory for other far-right and populist parties in Europe that have steadily risen to power in several countries, including Hungary.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union for the next six months, but if France’s first round vote is inconclusive and its complicated two-round voting system doesn’t leave a single bloc with a clear and viable majority, France will be entering unchartered territory.
But Le Pen’s opponents still see that scenario as more appealing than a victory for her party, which has a history of racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism and hostility towards France’s Muslims, as well as historical ties to Russia and a hostile stance towards the EU.
“We are facing a Trumpization of French democracy,” warned Sandrine Rousseau, an environmentalist lawmaker who was re-elected in the first round. “The second round will be crucial.”
The election’s importance and deadline have added to the tension, casting a shadow over preparations for the Paris Olympics, which open in less than a month.
Candidates who did not win directly in the first round but qualified to go to the second round have until 6pm on Tuesday to decide whether to continue the campaign or withdraw. If they withdraw, opponents of the National Coalition could siphon votes to other candidates who have a better chance of winning against the far-right party next Sunday.
Some candidates announced their own resignations, citing the defeat of the Rally National as their top priority, while others said they would withdraw candidates from some constituencies to give party leaders direction and block Le Pen’s path to power.
She took over the party, then called the National Front, from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has been convicted multiple times for racist and anti-Semitic hate speech. Overall, the National Rally and its allies won a third of the national vote on Sunday, according to official results.
The New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition of parties mobilized in a fast-paced three-week campaign to defeat the far right, won 28% of the vote, with Mr Macron’s centrist bloc third on 20%, but the 577 seats are elected on a constituency basis.
Therefore, while the national results indicate the overall performance of each side, they do not provide an accurate indication of how many seats each side will ultimately win.
Bardella urged voters to win a majority, saying they were faced with a choice between left-wing “firebrands” who pose an “existential threat” to France and his party’s proposal for a “responsible break” with Macron’s government.
Support for the National Alliance and the New Popular Front was so strong that both parties won more than 50 percent of the vote and more than 30 seats in several districts on Sunday, meaning there will be no second round of voting in those districts.
Turnout was about 67 percent, the highest since 1997, ending nearly three decades of deepening voter apathy towards legislative elections and, increasingly, French politics in general.
Following France’s crushing defeat to the National Rally in the European Parliament elections, President Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called general elections on June 9.
The deeply unpopular and weakened president gambled that the far-right would not repeat their success at a time when the fate of the country hung in the balance. But Macron’s plan backfired.
He has even been accused by members of Macron’s own camp of opening the door to the National Rally by bringing voters back to the ballot box at a time when many are angry about inflation, the cost of living, immigration and the president himself.
If his party forms a government, it has pledged to repeal many of President Macron’s key domestic and international policies, including pension reforms that have raised the retirement age.
The party has also said it would stop France from deploying long-range missiles in Ukraine in the event of a war with Russia. Opponents of the National Rally fear that a government of its own would threaten civil liberties.
The government plans to strengthen police powers and restrict the ability of dual French nationals to work in some jobs in the defense, security and nuclear industries, and Macron himself has warned that far-right forces could lead France down the path of civil war.
