Coach Brent Pry has made a 360-degree turn with the Virginia Tech football program. After finishing the 2022 season with a 3-8 record, the Hokies are red hot and coming back for the 2023 season with a 7-6 record. Virginia Tech closed out the season with a dominant 41-20 win over Tulane University in the Military Bowl. This bowl victory was the Hokies’ first since winning the Belk Bowl in 2016, and expectations are clearly high for the Virginia Tech program.
Pry has also done a great job with the productivity of returning players; in fact, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s return productivity calculator, the Hokies are returning 84% of their total productivity and an astonishing 91% of their offensive productivity.
It also helps that the team has a young star quarterback returning. Baylor transfer Kyron Doanes was a big factor in Virginia Tech’s success last season. Doanes finished with an impressive 2,903 yards, including 2,085 through the air and 818 on the ground.
That being said, Virginia Tech has one of the easiest schedules in the ACC, which has created some excitement among Virginia Tech fans. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index schedule strength system, Virginia Tech ranks as the 79th toughest schedule in the country. Of note, this gives Virginia Tech the second-easiest schedule in the ACC and Power 4 conferences, behind only Syracuse, which is currently ranked 82nd in the country.
This gives VT a strong chance of winning the ACC title game, and while they weren’t the preseason favorites to win the conference, they certainly have a chance.
Tech will open the season against Vanderbilt, which ironically may be one of the toughest games on the schedule — not because Vanderbilt is “good,” but simply judging by the fact that the first game on the schedule is an away game against an SEC school — but this is expected to be a relatively easy game for Tech to start the year.
VT has played all of its non-conference games to start the season, with the easiest two games on the schedule following the matchup against Vanderbilt.
Virginia Tech will open with a home schedule against Marshall University and Old Dominion University, who are ranked 85th and 108th, respectively, in the ESPN FPI. I think Virginia Tech will have no problem dealing with these two teams. There’s no doubt that Marshall is a solid team in the Sun Belt and has given the Hokies a tough time in the past, including a 24-17 loss during the 2023 season. Despite this, Marshall doesn’t look like the team it was last year and Virginia Tech should win these two games with ease.
After three games to start the season, Tech will face their toughest OOC opponent all season. Rutgers, ranked 45th in the ESPN RPI, is another team looking to bounce back. This is the first game VT can compete against on even terms. Rutgers went 7-6 last year and won their first bowl game since 2014, especially since their first year in the Big Ten. Winning this game could be the key to a trip to the ACC Championship Game, but if VT wins this game, they’ll be well on their way.
Tech could be 4-0 heading into ACC play, a far cry from Tech’s lone win coming against Old Dominion in 2023. Having a record like that will be a big motivator when VT begins conference play.
In the ACC, the Hokies will only face two teams ranked in the top 50 in ESPN’s preseason FPI: Miami (FL) and Clemson. Clemson, ranked 15th in the FPI, is ranked second in the ACC’s FPI, behind preseason conference favorite Florida State, while Miami is ranked fourth in the ACC. Miami is loaded with talent, but the question remains whether Mario Cristobal can get the most out of his team.
The Hurricanes have three relatively easy games before playing at Lane Stadium, which makes it more likely that Miami won’t take the Hokies too seriously at home, making this a very winnable game for Virginia. This game really does seem like a game where the stars are aligned for Virginia. Coming off their biggest game of the year at home against Rutgers, Virginia opens their ACC season at home in what should be an eventful game.
Really, if Virginia wins this game, they won’t need to beat Clemson later in the season to reach the conference title game.
Last year, ACC fans watched Louisville reach the Finals despite an early season loss to Pittsburgh. The ACC eliminated divisional play in 2023, meaning the two teams with the best conference winning percentages will qualify for the Finals.
So Virginia Tech’s path forward will be to perform well in non-conference games to build confidence early in the year, win one of two-game series against Miami and Clemson, and then beat all of the easier ACC opponents.
Outside of Miami and Clemson, the ACC schedule looks like an easy task for the Hokies, with home matches against Boston College, Georgia Tech and Virginia, while the Hokies travel to face Stanford, Syracuse and Duke.
All of these teams are not ranked in the top 50 in the ESPN FPI and, while they are certainly tough opponents, none of them stand out as “trap games” or games in which the Hokies might struggle.
Overall, if Virginia Tech can remain undefeated in ACC play, it will have a chance to reach its first ACC Championship Game appearance since 2016.
And if he can get his team in a game, who knows what could happen. While it’s certainly unlikely, Tech’s schedule gives them a slight chance of winning their first conference championship since Tyrod Taylor and the Hokies in 2010.
