“Uncertainty remains in the forecasted track and intensity of Beryl in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend,” the National Hurricane Center said in a statement Wednesday. “Concerns in the western Gulf of Mexico, including South Texas, should monitor Beryl’s track.”
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Hurricane Center’s forecast cone — the projected area through which the storm’s center could move — included much of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.
Computer model simulations also suggest that this region is where beryl is most likely to migrate.
Beryl is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday before emerging into the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night, at which point forecast confidence drops significantly.
If Beryl is a weaker system, it will have a stronger tendency to continue moving westward, possibly making landfall in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, just south of the Texas border, sometime over the weekend.
However, if Beryl maintains its strength, it could move north toward Texas and Louisiana. Strong storms are more susceptible to high-altitude currents when thunderclouds are high. The jet stream is expected to flow into the central United States, which could help push Beryl northward.
Another consideration in the track forecast is the strength and location of high pressure over the southern U.S. If the high pressure remains strong, the clockwise circulation will keep Beryl moving west toward Mexico. However, if the high pressure weakens and moves east, a weakened jet stream over the central U.S. will tend to pull the storm northward.
Computer model simulations suggest that one storm is heading south toward northeastern Mexico, while the other is heading toward the Texas coast between South Padre Island and Houston.
It’s unclear how strong the storm will become if it travels north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. It will certainly weaken as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will weaken to a tropical depression.
But as the storm moves into the Southwest Gulf, it will likely reintensify into a hurricane sometime Saturday into Sunday due to the influence of very warm waters.
Even if Beryl makes landfall in northeastern Mexico, it could bring dangerously high surf, significant rainfall, and strong winds to South Texas.
The National Weather Service forecast office in Brownsville, Texas, urged residents to monitor the storm’s progress.
“A tropical storm may make landfall approximately 80 miles south of Brownsville, potentially producing heavy rainfall with potential for flooding, high winds with potential for damage and power outages, isolated tornadoes, and high surf with potential for severe coastal erosion (on local coasts),” the report states. “The extent to which these events occur will depend on the size and strength of Beryl when it ultimately makes landfall.”
