France’s left-wing and centre parties are working together to stop the far-right from winning a majority of seats in parliament in a final vote this weekend.
They will know early Monday whether their attempt is successful or whether 28-year-old Jordan Bardella will become the next prime minister.
It would be perhaps the worst imaginable outcome for President Emmanuel Macron, who called surprise elections last month, years earlier than planned.
A guide to understanding the French election and what happens next.
Who are the parties involved?
There are three main parties taking part in this election.
In the center is President Macron’s party. Renaissance.
The current prime minister is also from the same party and only took up his post in January.
He presides over a minority parliament that is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to manage.
The one on the far right is National MeetingIn French it is called Rassemblement National. R.N.
Formerly known as the National Front, the party was founded in 1972 by far-right figure Jean-Marie Le Pen.
His daughter, Marine Le Pen, is now leader and has embarked on a program of “detoxification” to make the party’s right-wing policies more acceptable to voters and distance it from its racist and anti-Semitic past.
As part of this, she expelled her father from the party in 2015.
The party may now be on the brink of a major breakthrough in French politics.
The party topped the vote in last month’s European Parliament elections and is hoping to repeat that success in the domestically-focused parliamentary elections that Macron called on the night the European results were announced.
To counter the National Coalition in surprise elections, left-wing parties formed a broad coalition; New People’s Frontor Nouveau Front Populaire.
The coalition includes a range of candidates, from socialists to center-left parties.
How did the first round of voting go?
The national rally came in first in the first round of voting last week.
They received about a third of the votes nationwide.
The left-wing group received around 28.5% of the vote, while Macron’s party came in third with around 21%.
According to an Ipsos exit poll, rejection of the president’s party was strongest among younger voters.
The only age group to rank first in Renaissance’s survey was those over 70.
Among young voters aged 18 to 24, the left-wing coalition won almost half of the vote, while the far-right won a third.
All of these figures are national vote totals, but like Australia, elections are decided seat by seat.
Why vote twice when you’ve already done so?
Voting in France’s legislative elections is held in two phases, one week apart.
If turnout is high enough in the first round and a candidate receives more than half the votes in his or her district, the election is over and the candidate advances to Parliament.
However, if no candidate receives a majority, any candidate with less than 12.5% of the vote is eliminated and a second round of voting takes place a week later.
In this election, most seats will proceed to a second round of voting.
Typically, most runoff elections are contested between two candidates.
But this time, three major groups ran and performed so well that three candidates out of hundreds of seats qualified to go to a second round of voting, known in French as a “triangulaire.”
If this weekend’s election were a rematch of last week’s, the far right would likely win.
The National Coalition came in first with 296 seats, while the other two major groups came in first with 221 seats.
If all these candidates remain in the race, it could split up votes outside the National Alliance and give the party a majority in parliament.
Instead, the New Popular Front and Renaissance joined forces to stop it, forming a very broad-based political alliance united in opposition.
More than 210 candidates who finished third dropped out, funneling their votes to one non-far-right candidate.
One of Macron’s supporters told French media the move was a “no brainer”.
What happens next?
Voting takes place in France on Sunday, with the results of each party’s vote known on Monday Australian time.
Once parliament has made its decision, Macron will need to convene the parties to form a government.
It is highly likely that the next prime minister will not be from Macron’s party, meaning France will be left with a power-sharing arrangement known as “coexistence” for the next few years.
What’s even more uncertain is whether the prime minister will be the National Coalition candidate, Jordan Bardella, or a candidate from the left.
If the 28-year-old Bardella becomes prime minister, it would mark a fundamental change in the history of post-war French politics.
This would also be Macron’s biggest political gamble to backfire, making his final years in office (he cannot be re-elected after 2027 due to term limits) extremely difficult and driving French politics into a deadlock.
Of course, this is assuming that France’s next parliament can function and doesn’t need to start all over again right away.
