The second round of France’s parliamentary elections began on Sunday, with the far-right National Rally (RN) aiming to gain seats while President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is seeking a comeback.
Voting has already begun, with polling stations opening at 11.30am (6am GMT) on Sunday and closing at 6pm in towns and smaller cities and 9.30pm (7pm GMT) in larger cities.
After being defeated by the far-right in recent European elections, Macron dissolved Parliament and called for two general elections three years earlier than planned. With opinion polls predicting that his party would win the most votes, Macron’s gamble appears to have backfired.
What happened in the first round?On June 30, the far-right National Rally (RN) party won with more than 30% of the vote.
Marine Le Pen’s RN won about 34% of the vote, beating left-wing and center rivals including Macron’s Together coalition. Macron’s coalition is expected to win 20.5% to 23%, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition is expected to get about 29% of the vote, Reuters reported, citing exit polls.
In Le Pen’s constituency of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, supporters waved French flags and sang the Marseillaise, Reuters reported. “The French people have shown their will to put an end to contemptuous and corrupt power,” she told a cheering crowd.
Poll forecastOpinion polls predict that the RN will win the most seats compared to other parties. However, the party’s lead has shrunk as other parties have joined forces to form a united opposition against the RN. It seems unlikely that the RN will win a substantial majority in parliament.
The left-leaning New Popular Front and a coalition of centrist parties backing President Emmanuel Macron withdrew more than 200 candidates from the second round to improve the chances of winning for strong anti-RN candidates in their respective constituencies.
So far, the far right has benefited from a fragmented political landscape. The latest polls, conducted after candidates withdrew, suggest this strategy is working. The most likely outcome is that the far right fails to win an absolute majority, leaving parliament in limbo.
This potential outcome would lead to the highest levels of political uncertainty.
What will happen if the RN wins the election?Opinion polls predict the RN will win the election, which would make the party’s chairman, Jordan Bardella, the next prime minister.
Reuters reported that the party could pursue anti-immigration, eurosceptic policies if it wins.
In this scenario, Macron’s Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, would have to resign and, in accordance with Article 8 of the Constitution, Macron would nominate a new prime minister who would then be tasked with forming a government.
Macron has the right to veto a nomination if he deems the person unfit for the role.
The RN has been tentative about what it will do if it falls just short of a majority. Reuters reported that Bardella has said he would not lead a shaky minority government, but the RN’s Marine Le Pen has said she could enlist the support of other lawmakers if she was just a few seats short.
What were the main issues that prompted your support for the National Assembly?The National Coalition’s policy platform, which includes strict immigration controls and nationalist policies, has resonated with voters who are disillusioned with traditional parties and concerned about issues such as immigration and national identity.
What happens if no one wins a majority?Without a majority party, France could slip into political paralysis with little or no legislation being passed and Macron would have to navigate complex political negotiations while a caretaker government ran basic day-to-day operations.
Unlike other European countries, France has never formed a broad-based coalition government in its modern political history, according to Reuters.
Voting has already begun, with polling stations opening at 11.30am (6am GMT) on Sunday and closing at 6pm in towns and smaller cities and 9.30pm (7pm GMT) in larger cities.
After being defeated by the far-right in recent European elections, Macron dissolved Parliament and called for two general elections three years earlier than planned. With opinion polls predicting that his party would win the most votes, Macron’s gamble appears to have backfired.
What happened in the first round?On June 30, the far-right National Rally (RN) party won with more than 30% of the vote.
Marine Le Pen’s RN won about 34% of the vote, beating left-wing and center rivals including Macron’s Together coalition. Macron’s coalition is expected to win 20.5% to 23%, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition is expected to get about 29% of the vote, Reuters reported, citing exit polls.
In Le Pen’s constituency of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, supporters waved French flags and sang the Marseillaise, Reuters reported. “The French people have shown their will to put an end to contemptuous and corrupt power,” she told a cheering crowd.
Poll forecastOpinion polls predict that the RN will win the most seats compared to other parties. However, the party’s lead has shrunk as other parties have joined forces to form a united opposition against the RN. It seems unlikely that the RN will win a substantial majority in parliament.
The left-leaning New Popular Front and a coalition of centrist parties backing President Emmanuel Macron withdrew more than 200 candidates from the second round to improve the chances of winning for strong anti-RN candidates in their respective constituencies.
So far, the far right has benefited from a fragmented political landscape. The latest polls, conducted after candidates withdrew, suggest this strategy is working. The most likely outcome is that the far right fails to win an absolute majority, leaving parliament in limbo.
This potential outcome would lead to the highest levels of political uncertainty.
What will happen if the RN wins the election?Opinion polls predict the RN will win the election, which would make the party’s chairman, Jordan Bardella, the next prime minister.
Reuters reported that the party could pursue anti-immigration, eurosceptic policies if it wins.
In this scenario, Macron’s Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, would have to resign and, in accordance with Article 8 of the Constitution, Macron would nominate a new prime minister who would then be tasked with forming a government.
Macron has the right to veto a nomination if he deems the person unfit for the role.
The RN has been tentative about what it will do if it falls just short of a majority. Reuters reported that Bardella has said he would not lead a shaky minority government, but the RN’s Marine Le Pen has said she could enlist the support of other lawmakers if she was just a few seats short.
What were the main issues that prompted your support for the National Assembly?The National Coalition’s policy platform, which includes strict immigration controls and nationalist policies, has resonated with voters who are disillusioned with traditional parties and concerned about issues such as immigration and national identity.
What happens if no one wins a majority?Without a majority party, France could slip into political paralysis with little or no legislation being passed and Macron would have to navigate complex political negotiations while a caretaker government ran basic day-to-day operations.
Unlike other European countries, France has never formed a broad-based coalition government in its modern political history, according to Reuters.
