A left-wing coalition that unexpectedly formed ahead of France’s early elections won the most seats in the vote, according to opinion poll projections on Sunday.
The unexpected result put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition in second place and the far-right in third place. With no coalition able to secure a majority, France has been plunged into political and economic chaos. The final results of the highly precarious general election, announced just four weeks ago as a major gamble for Macron, are not expected to be announced until late Sunday or early Monday.
According to projections, the deeply unpopular president lost control of parliament, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party made a big gain in seats, but fell far short of expectations.
The sudden legislative elections in this nuclear-armed country and major economy will have implications for the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy, and the economic stability of Europe.
France now faces weeks of political maneuvering to decide who will become prime minister and lead parliament, and Mr Macron faces the prospect of leading the country with a prime minister who opposes most of his domestic policies.
France’s left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called the prediction “a great relief for the majority of our country” and called for the prime minister to resign. Mr. Mélenchon is the most prominent of the left-wing leaders who have unexpectedly rallied together ahead of two general elections.
If that forecast is confirmed in official figures due to be released late Sunday or early Monday, it will plunge France, a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy, into a moment of great uncertainty: it is completely unclear who will be the prime minister to run France alongside President Emmanuel Macron.
The timing of France’s political plunge into the unknown could hardly be worse: With the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks and the world watching, the country will find itself grappling with domestic instability.
The parliamentary elections were a major setback for Macron, 46, who is a centrist. After the European elections saw a surge in far-right support in France, he surprised many in France and his own government by dissolving the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
Macron argued that bringing voters back to the ballot box would bring “clarity” to France. The president was betting that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far right and far left to more center-leaning mainstream parties. Macron would return to the center-leaning mainstream parties that gave him much of his support when he won the presidential elections in 2017 and 2022. That, he hoped, would strengthen his remaining three years in office.
But in France’s increasingly polarized political landscape, far from supporting Mr Macron, millions of voters on both the left and right saw his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger and sideline him by casting him in a parliament that is likely to be populated by lawmakers hostile to him and, in particular, his pro-business policies.
In the first round of voting last weekend, voters supported the far-right National Rally candidate in greater numbers than they did in the European Parliament elections, with the left-wing coalition coming in second and the centre-right coalition a distant third.
A hung parliament, with no party coming close to winning the 289 seats needed to gain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France’s two major legislative bodies, is uncharted territory for modern France and would lead to political turmoil.
Unlike other European countries accustomed to coalition governments, France has no tradition of lawmakers from opposing political camps coming together to form a majority.
The sharp polarization of French politics, particularly this fierce and fast-paced election campaign, will undoubtedly complicate coalition-building efforts. Racism, anti-Semitism and a Russian disinformation campaign marred the race, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked, highly unusual for France.
The government announced the deployment of 30,000 police to Sunday’s runoff election, a sign of the importance it is placing on the vote and fears that a win for the far-right, or even if neither side wins clearly, could spark protests.
The makeshift majority is fragile and a vote of no confidence could bring the government to its knees, and prolonged instability could strengthen calls from opponents for Macron’s second and final term to be cut short.
The French constitution prohibits dissolving parliament again within the next 12 months, making it impossible to dissolve it as a way to bring more transparency to France.
