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On Sunday night, there was jubilation: French voters had once again ousted the far right from power. On Monday morning, there was uncertainty: a hanging parliament, uneasy alliances and the threat of a tumultuous few years ahead.
President Emmanuel Macron said France’s early parliamentary elections were meant to “clarify” the political situation, but following the shock results of the second round, it has become the most chaotic in decades.
A surge in support for the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) led to the defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party, but French politics is more chaotic than before the vote.
So what did we learn last night, who will be the next Prime Minister of France, and did Macron’s gamble “pay off”?
The RN came in first in the first round of voting last Sunday, moving closer than ever to power and on the verge of forming France’s first far-right government since the Vichy regime during World War II.
But after a week of political maneuvering, in which more than 200 left-wing and centrist candidates withdrew from the second round to avoid splitting the vote, the NFP, a coalition of parties from the far left to moderates, won the most seats in the decisive second round.
The NFP won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest party in the 577-seat parliament. Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition came in a distant third in the first round of voting but bounced back strongly to win 163 seats. The RN and its allies won 143 seats despite leading in the first round.
Does this mean the NFP “won” the election? No. The coalition government won the most seats, but it was far short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, and France is now hanging in the balance. If this is a victory of anything, it is a victory of the “cordillera”, the principle that mainstream parties must stick together to prevent the far right from taking power.
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It was meant to be a coronation. Thousands of supporters packed RN headquarters in Paris and at election night events in chapters across the country to watch a moment that many felt had been decades in the making: confirmation that their party, and its long-taboo anti-immigration platform, had won the most seats in the French parliament.
But that didn’t happen. The enthusiastic mood cooled as supporters learned that the RN had dropped to third place. Its leader, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old chosen by Ms. Le Pen to renew the party’s image and root out its roots of racism and anti-Semitism, was in a bad mood. He denounced the “dangerous electoral deal” struck between the NFP and Ensemble, saying it had “robbed the French people” of an RN-led government.
“With his decision to deliberately paralyze our institutions, President Emmanuel Macron has now led the country into uncertainty and instability,” Bardella said, dismissing the NFP as an “unholy alliance”.
Kevin Coombs/Reuters
A disappointed Jordan Bardella spoke at RN headquarters in Paris on election night.
Still, the RN’s success should not be underestimated. In the 2017 elections that Macron won in a landslide, the party won just eight seats. In 2022, that number jumped to 89. Sunday’s vote gave it 125 seats, the most of any single party. This unity means the party is likely to remain a powerful force in the next parliament, although the solidity of its left-wing coalition has yet to be tested.
Will the left remain united?
A month ago, the NFP didn’t exist. Now it’s the largest force in France’s parliament and could produce the country’s next prime minister. The NFP chose its name to try to revive the original Popular Front that stopped the far-right from taking power in 1936. Sunday’s result means the NFP has succeeded again in that endeavor.
But while it has achieved its objective, it is unclear whether the large, potentially divisive coalition, hastily assembled and made up of several parties including the far-left France Indomitable, the Socialists, the Green Ecologists and the centre-left Plus Publik, will hold.
This many-headed hydra does not speak with one voice. Each party celebrated the results in its own election campaign, not in unison. Its two most prominent figures, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the populist Indefatigable France, and Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the more moderate Plus Public, have barely spoken a word.
The NFP’s big spending plans, which include raising the minimum wage, capping certain food and energy prices and repealing Macron’s pension reforms, are threatening to clash with strict European Union fiscal rules and France’s need to rein in a ballooning budget deficit, with potential spillovers to disagreements over economic and foreign policy.
Emmanuel Dunant/AFP/Getty Images
A largely young crowd gathered at the Place de la Republique in Paris to celebrate the defeat of far-right forces.
Mr. Macron once said his ideas were “too complicated” for journalists. Yet his decision to call elections three years earlier than needed and with his approval rating far behind has confounded the most astute political analysts, caught his closest allies off guard and baffled many French voters.
Macron recorded the vote shortly after his party’s crushing defeat to the Luxembourg Liberal Party in last month’s European Parliament elections. He said the outcome of the elections would not affect domestic politics but that he could not ignore the message sent by voters and wanted to clarify the situation.
But Sunday’s results suggest that Mr Macron achieved the opposite. “What was meant to be clarification has instead led to greater ambiguity,” said Edouard Philippe, a former French prime minister and Mr Macron ally. Mr Macron’s party recovered from the first round but lost about 100 seats compared to the 2022 election.
Mohammed Badla/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
President Emmanuel Macron, accompanied by his wife Brigitte Macron (right), holds a second-round ballot at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France.
Macron’s first decision will be to appoint a new prime minister, a process he has already delayed by refusing to accept Gabriel Attal’s resignation and asking him to stay on for the time being.
Typically, the French president appoints the prime minister from the strongest faction in parliament, but it is unclear which faction of the New Liberal Party will be appointed. Mélenchon’s party won the most seats in the party, but Macron’s allies have repeatedly refused to work with France Indefatigable, arguing that it is as extreme as the RN and therefore unfit to govern.
To reach the majority needed to pass the bill, the NFP would need to ally with the Ensemble, as the two coalitions would join an even larger coalition spanning a wide ideological spectrum. Finding common ground will be a difficult task and deadlock is likely. Without a clear majority, the minority government would face the risk of a no-confidence vote as early as this month, potentially leading to multiple government changes.
One solution would be a “technocratic” government, with Macron appointing non-party ministers to manage day-to-day operations. But this would be seen as undemocratic and would fuel the fires of populism. Look at Italy, where technocrat Mario Draghi became prime minister and then OutstandingIn 2010, France elected its most far-right government since Benito Mussolini, and while France has so far avoided a far-right government, the RN threat is likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future.
