French elections: What happens next as country faces political paralysis

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Contrary to opinion polls’ predictions, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came out on top in France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, followed by President Macron’s centrist bloc.

The far-right National Rally came in third. Surprising defeat This is given the party’s historic vote numbers in the first round of parliamentary elections on June 30 and the European Parliament elections on June 9.

Parliament is divided, with the Left winning 181 seats, the Presidential Majority 159 seats, and the National Alliance 143 seats. 3 different blocks.

Neither coalition has secured the 289-seat majority needed to form a government in the National Assembly, leaving France facing a hanging parliament and possible political paralysis.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal I offered my resignation President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition government lost its relative majority in the general election, but with no successor in sight, Macron has asked them to remain in power as caretaker.

So who will rule France and what scenarios are possible in the coming weeks?

How are the Prime Minister and Cabinet appointed?

According to the French constitution, the president has the power to appoint whoever he wants as prime minister.

Macron is therefore under no obligation to nominate someone from the NFP, which is currently the strongest party.

But institutional logic requires that a prime minister-designate must garner enough support in parliament to avoid a vote of no confidence that would bring down the government.

As no political force currently has the power to form a government with an absolute majority, Macron and the NFP will need to reach an agreement.

Political scientist Bruno Cottrell says that at least in order to get “tacit support, abstention or explicit support from other parties” He told the French newspaper Le Parisien.

Once appointed, the Prime Minister is responsible for selecting the Ministers of his Cabinet.

Here too, by convention the President is more or less involved, especially when it comes to key appointments such as the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense, which are the power of the Head of State. Unofficial “reserved domains”.

What are some possible scenarios?

Outcome 1: Left coalition as minority government

NFP is Many left-wing parties These include the Unfurled France (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Green Party and the Communist Party.

There is a lot of internal fighting, especially over the delicate issue of who will lead France as a future prime minister.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left party Indefatigable France (LFI), has repeatedly said he would be willing to take on the role. But he remains Extremes Within the NFP.

“Mr Mélenchon has alienated many voters and his nomination would pose serious problems,” said sociologist Erwan Lecourt, an expert on France’s far-right and Green parties.

“The problem for the left is that it has no natural prime minister who can impose its will, so it has to find a middle ground,” Lecourt said, citing figures such as Marine Tondelier. Leader of the Green Party Alternatively, Clementine Autun, a less controversial member of parliament for the Indomitable France party, could be a possible candidate.

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Nicholas Tenzer, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis and author of Our War: Crimes and Forgetting, said the chancellor does not have to be from a political party.

“It could be someone coming out of the political arena. Socialist MEP Raphael Glucksmann “I proposed nominating Laurent Bergé, the leader of France’s largest trade union. He could be a good compromise for the prime minister,” Tenzer told Euronews.

But a minority government with fewer than 289 seats means the left-wing coalition will be constantly under threat of a vote of no confidence from other parties.

However, Macron’s government has maintained a relative majority of 246 seats since 2022 because other parties did not cooperate to topple the government.

The presidential camp had to secure a majority of votes separately to put each bill to a vote and frequently made use of Article 49(3) of the constitution, which allows Macron’s cabinet to pass bills without a vote, a move that was deeply unpopular among voters.

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But some analysts believe the controversial appointment of Mélenchon could lead to a vote of no confidence.

Result 2: Macron wins an absolute majority through his Rainbow Coalition

Macron may try to forge a fragile coalition government with moderates from the left and right.

“We’re in a situation of relative political paralysis, so it might be possible to form a fragile rainbow coalition, but there’s still a huge divide from an ideological standpoint,” said constitutional law expert Benjamin Morrell.

But France does not have the political culture to form large coalition governments that are common in other countries. Germany and other EU countriesAccording to Lecourt, yes.

“France needs to learn to compromise. Neither the NFP’s policies nor those of Macron’s party are viable. Something in between is needed,” Tenzer said.

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“Otherwise France will fall into chaos – a godsend for the far-right, who are seizing every opportunity to prepare for the 2027 presidential elections,” he added.

But this option appears less likely after several party leaders, including the Liberal Party’s Mélenchon, voiced their outright opposition to any particular alliance.

Meanwhile, Macron’s strategy has been to isolate the LFI from the political stage since the start of the legislative campaign, even though Mélenchon’s party remains the largest party within the NFP, holding 74 out of 178 seats.

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and current EU and Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Séjourné Denied any alliance With the LFI party.

“The presence of many small political groups in parliament and the prospect of new elections in a year’s time means that many parties may not be able to give any real benefit to others,” Morell told Euronews.

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Option 3: Macron appoints a technocratic government

Another option for Macron would be to appoint a technocratic government of current affairs ministers with no particular political affiliation, supported individually by each group in the National Assembly.

“France will remain in a state of non-political but very technical confusion, but it will not last more than a year or two,” Lecourt said.

But some experts, like Tenzer, are denying that this is even an option.

“I think it’s impossible to have a technocratic government because every choice is political. For example, budget decisions are always political because the government has to decide whether to allocate more money to education, social measures, etc.”

“We have to dispel this illusion,” Tenzer told Euronews.

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When is your next big date?

The French constitution does not impose a deadline for appointing a new prime minister after parliamentary elections.

However, the first session of the National Assembly is scheduled for July 18, which itself will be the first deadline.

If the NFP and other parties cannot agree on a new prime minister, France could slip into an unprecedented situation of institutional deadlock and political paralysis.

Macron will not be able to dissolve the National Assembly until next summer, which would eliminate the possibility of new parliamentary elections.

In such extreme cases, experts like Lecourt believe the head of state “has no choice but to resign.”

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