Hurricane Beryl’s deadly and record-breaking ferocity is largely over, but forecasters say the storm confirms concerns about a dangerous hurricane season.
On Tuesday, forecasters at Colorado State University upgraded their already record-breaking hurricane forecast: They’re now expecting one more hurricane (bringing the season total to 12) and two more named storms (bringing the season total to 25).
“Hurricane Beryl, a tropical Category 5 hurricane, will likely herald an active season,” the latest forecast said.
But there is some good news in the short term: “After Beryl, the Atlantic season is likely to quiet down temporarily.” Phil Klotzbach“The storm is likely to continue for a long time, but it’s likely to continue for a long time,” a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University told USA Today.
This grace period is not expected to last long, as Klotzbach believes the risks could increase by the end of the month.
When storm season resumes in a few weeks, forecasters say the storms may return with more force.
Hurricane forecasters prepare for dangerous hurricane season
Some experts say Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, confirms concerns about this hurricane season.
It’s “a very ominous start to the season,” Steve Bowen, chief scientific officer at reinsurer Gallagher Re, said on Twitter. “If you were wondering about the seasonal overactivity forecast, this should be a wake-up call.”
Forecasters are expecting a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year, with one forecast predicting as many as 33 named storms, compared with the average of 14.
“We are likely to see more record-breaking and intense storms this season as ocean temperatures remain abnormally warm and we transition to a La Niña weather pattern, which reduces vertical wind speeds in the tropical Atlantic, contributing to increased hurricane activity,” University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy wrote in a blog post.
The Atlantic hurricane season occurs during August, September and October, with the most active period being from August 15th to October 15th.
When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
There’s not much major activity in the tropics right now, and it’s not unusual for July to be “generally quiet” when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, according to Weather.com meteorologist Daniel Banks.
In fact, the long-term average for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in July is just 1. This is based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) going back to 1851.
And overall, only about 8 percent of named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season since 1851 have occurred in July, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division.
For now, the dust makes it difficult for hurricanes to form.
One reason for the calm in storms over the next few weeks is dry, dusty air spreading across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert in North Africa. “Ocean temperatures are warm enough to encourage tropical development and further intensification, but the dry air and dust are suppressing storm development,” Banks said.
“Essentially, the dust acts like a lid, making it harder for storms to form,” she added.
The dust plume could reach the continental U.S. and also suppress storms in the Gulf of Mexico, WTXL-TV forecaster Casanova Nurse said.
According to NOAA, a mass of extremely dry, dusty air known as the Saharan air mass forms over the Sahara Desert and moves across the North Atlantic every three to five days from late spring through early fall, peaking between late June and mid-August.
