Presidential election: Kamala Harris replacing Biden unlikely to save Democrats, says professor who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections

US President Joe Biden is lagging behind in many national polls, especially after the first presidential debate. Many Democrats desperately searching for an alternative to Biden at the ballot box have found a unified candidate in Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden has not resigned and has indicated his intention to run for office. As the Democratic Party tackles this challenge, Alan Lichtman, a presidential historian and professor who has correctly won nine of the last 10 elections, is giving the Democrats advice. He says Biden is the best person to run in the upcoming election and that Harris cannot save the Democratic Party. Lichtman previously said that a 90-minute debate is not enough to judge which candidate’s track record, such as saving the US economy from crisis and creating more jobs, weighs more in the minds of voters.

Why is Biden a good candidate?

Alan Lichtman said there were 13 key indicators in the form of true or false questions, and if a party fails on six or more of the 13 indicators, it will lose the election. He said Biden passed on seven key indicators, including being the incumbent, having no significant primaries, having no recession during the election period, a strong long-term economy based on real per capita economic growth compared to the average of the past two terms, no major policy changes, no major scandals directly linked to the president, and having a challenger who lacked charisma.

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Kamala Harris:

Lichtman believes that by removing Biden and nominating Harris, Democrats would lose two of the key positions Biden secured: incumbency and primary contests, which he said would likely cost Democrats the election.

The only way for Democrats to replace Biden with Harris would be for Biden to step down as US president and for Harris to take over for a few months, which would give her control of the incumbent’s office.

Alan Lichtman:

He has accurately predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1984, a record nine out of the last ten elections. The only time he was wrong was in 2000 when he predicted that Al Gore would win the election. George W. Bush won the electoral vote and became the President of the United States.

FAQ:

What are Alan Lichtman’s political views?
He has personally voiced his opposition to Trump running in the election, saying a Trump presidency would only lead to more chaos, and voiced his support for Biden.

What is the “White House Key Model”?
This is a set of 13 indicators or keys that a candidate seeking to become president of the United States should achieve. It was developed by Alan Lichtman and Vladimir Kaylis-Borok.

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(First published on July 9, 2024)