Washington DC – Eight gunshots have upended the US election campaign, throwing an already unprecedented election contest into even more uncertainty.
More details emerged Sunday after the attack at a rally for presidential candidate Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, along with early signs of how the violence may affect US political debate, election campaigns and voter attitudes in the days leading up to the November 8 election.
But for US political strategist Lina Shah, one thing became clear in the aftermath of the attacks: “No matter what happens, everything is going to be different from now on.”
She said that will be especially evident at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Republicans are due to meet starting Monday to begin the formal process of nominating Trump as their candidate.
The event comes just two days after a gunman, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, opened fire at a President Trump rally from a nearby rooftop outside the Secret Service security perimeter.
One bullet grazed Trump’s right ear, sparking panic on the packed stage, while others struck members of the audience, killing one and wounding two.
“I would say this is a shock to the consciousness,” Shah said in a television interview with Al Jazeera. “With less than 120 days to go, this resets everything.”
Calls for unity met with criticism and censure
Indeed, the attack at the rally – which made Trump the 13th US president or presidential candidate to suffer an assassination attempt and the eighth to survive – prompted swift calls from elected officials to reset the polarization that has defined modern US politics.
U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the violence as “sick,” ahead of a call with his rival later Saturday. “Everyone must condemn this attack,” he said.
“It’s more important than ever that we come together,” Trump said Sunday, a departure from the harsh rhetoric that has characterised his campaign so far.
Experts on political violence say it is vital that leaders continue to de-escalate to prevent further violence and retaliatory attacks.
In an Al Jazeera television interview after the attack, Colin P. Clark, director of research at the security consulting firm Soufan Group, said the violence at the rally was “emblematic” of the extreme aspects of U.S. democracy today.
Recent studies have found that Americans are not as ideologically polarized as they perceive themselves to be, but are increasingly “affectively polarized,” meaning they “feel strong aversion to members of the other party,” according to an analysis published last year by Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Several studies have shown that threats against elected officials and public servants have increased in recent years, spiking after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to overturn Biden’s electoral victory.
Meanwhile, a June University of Chicago poll found that about 7% of respondents said the use of force to restore Trump to office would be justified, while an additional 10% said it would be justified to use force “to stop Trump from becoming president.”
Clark, the national security analyst, added that while the violence at the Trump rally could be a unifying moment for Americans, “it could also be divisive.” He predicted “a very dangerous political season.”
His comments have since proven prescient, with many Republicans pinning the blame for the attacks on Biden, including Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, who said Biden’s comments portrayed Trump as “an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs.”
At least one Republican lawmaker has embraced the conspiracy theories, with Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia calling for authorities to arrest Biden on baseless charges of “soliciting assassination.”
Political conflict
Political commentators are waiting to see whether the shooting will intensify or ease political polarization in the US, but nearly all analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera agreed that Trump’s approval rating is likely to soar in the wake of the attack.
The incident occurred just before the Republican National Convention, but Trump’s campaign has said he will still attend, which could give the remarks a boost.
Its momentum will also be fuelled by the images and stories that emerge from the attacks.
“The iconic shot of Trump with his fist raised, blood streaming from the side of his head and the flag perfectly draped over him is what’s driving this narrative,” Republican strategist James Davis told Al Jazeera.
“After this, he’s going to be viewed sympathetically in the national press,” he said.
He will never stop fighting to save America 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/qT4Vd0sVTm
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 13, 2024
In a race expected to be decided narrowly, even a small jump in the polls could mean the difference between victory or defeat, and both Trump and Biden are hoping to attract voters who typically don’t show up to the polls, while also garnering support from a handful of undecided voters in several key battleground states.
Trump has largely weathered his historic conviction in May on charges related to paying hush money to adult film stars, though some polls have shown him to soften slightly among undecided voters, while Biden has faced growing calls from within his own party to step down amid growing concerns over his age.
Still, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released last week showed Biden with slight leads over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump with slight leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Fears of further violence
Democratic strategist Arshad Hasan also acknowledged to Al Jazeera that Trump is likely to gain more support in the wake of the attack, especially as the Biden campaign has vowed to suspend all communications and advertising critical of Trump for 48 hours as a mark of respect.
Hasan said Democrats were wise to focus on “humanity” in the wake of the attack, but that they should continue to call for stricter gun control, something Biden has already made a central part of his presidency. “The time to talk about gun violence is when gun violence is happening,” he said.
The political strategist said he was at a conference of the party’s progressive wing when the attack occurred, and he witnessed the shock among attendees, many of whom had planned to attend various campaign events and Trump rallies-like events over the next few months of the campaign.
He added that beyond the attacks on President Trump, the 2011 shooting of Rep. Gabby Giffords at a voter rally and the 2017 attack on lawmakers while they were playing a baseball game in Alexandria, Virginia, were still fresh in many people’s minds.
Hasan said the election season will likely be marked by the spectre of that fear.
“There are hundreds of people running for Congress and the Senate, thousands of people running for state legislatures, and on top of that there are a lot of issues that people are advocating for,” he said.
The attack has prompted a review of security at prominent candidates’ campaign events, but most candidates run for office with little or no security.
“The fear is that violence will lead to more violence,” Hasan said.
