- Over the past 18 days, the 2024 election has been completely flipped in Trump’s favor.
- It began with Biden’s debate chaos and the two weeks of infighting within the Democratic Party that followed.
- Having just survived an assassination attempt, he now won a document lawsuit.
There’s no denying it: Donald Trump has been incredibly lucky.
Having just survived an assassination attempt, the former president enters this week’s Republican National Convention with a political boost as Democrats struggle with whether to support President Joe Biden following his dismal debate performances.
On Monday, Trump scored another victory, at least for now, when Judge Eileen Cannon dismissed the federal classified documents lawsuit against him.
With President Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in the polls only growing, it’s hard to see how Democrats can reverse that. This could be the luckiest 18 days ever for a presidential candidate.
June 27: Biden debate collapse
As we all know by now, the first debate was a complete disaster for Biden, with the president looking weak, stuttering and occasionally uttering incoherent syllables.
Biden’s performance confirmed long-held concerns among voters, including most Democrats, that the president is too old to seek reelection. Trump may be just a few years younger than Biden and he told plenty of lies during the debate, but he still managed to put on an energetic performance that kept Biden in the spotlight.
Even more damaging for the president was the bickering over the debate that followed, with Democrats openly disagreeing about whether Biden still represented the best chance to beat Trump.
Twenty House Democrats and one Senate Democrat have publicly called on Biden to drop out of the race, while several others have noted that Trump is likely to win the November election unless he simply corrects course.
These discussions largely subsided following the assassination attempt on President Trump, but are unlikely to stop completely if subsequent events continue to boost the former president’s approval ratings.
July 13: Survives an assassination attempt
Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday.
On the one hand, Trump was simply lucky not to die: one of the gunman’s bullets grazed his ear; if he had stood an inch to the right, the wound could have been fatal.
“I wasn’t supposed to be here, I was supposed to be dead,” Trump told the New York Post. “A lot of people say it’s either luck or God that I’m still here.”
But there is also no denying that the assassination attempt has given Trump a political advantage.
Trump and his allies have a long history of inciting political violence, particularly the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, but this incident allows Trump to flip the script and convincingly portray himself as the victim of political violence, even as the shooter’s motive remains unclear.
Trump said Sunday that his speech at the Republican National Convention on Thursday would focus on unity, rather than attacking Biden.
The image of Trump raising his fist at a rally shortly after he was shot is also haunting.
Such images will be a powerful motivator for supporters and build enthusiasm ahead of the election.
July 15: Judge throws out Trump’s classified documents lawsuit
On Monday, President Trump received another bit of good news.
Judge Eileen Cannon has dismissed the federal government’s classified documents lawsuit against President Trump, finding the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith unconstitutional.
The case, widely seen as the most powerful one against a former president, isn’t completely over yet: Smith is expected to appeal the judge’s ruling, and it could ultimately end up in the Supreme Court.
But at the very least, Cannon’s move will further delay the litigation and play a key role in boosting morale for the president and his supporters heading into the convention.
It also highlights the lasting impact that President Trump’s first term has had on the American justice system. Cannon was nominated by Trump in 2020 and confirmed by the then-Republican-controlled Senate later that year.
