Why US elections matter to Jordan’s interests
The next US presidential election will be a monumental event on the world stage. This election will not only have significant implications for the state of affairs of the United States itself, but will also determine the fate of more conflicts than ever before, influence the geopolitical situation and affect many countries in different ways.
Such is the case in Jordan. Amid drug trafficking and Bashar Assad’s Syria, an economically troubled and armed militia-plagued Iraq, a politically complex and humanitarianly disastrous Israel-Hamas war, and rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Jordan’s strong ties with the United States have been of great benefit in maintaining the country’s stability during some of the region’s most turbulent times.
Perhaps this was never more evident than when Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Israel in April, leaving Jordan caught in the middle: It closed its airspace and took a pragmatic approach to objects flying through it, but its closest allies, led by the United States, helped ensure the security of Jordanian territory.
The United States is also helping Jordan strengthen its border security in response to the ongoing issue of arms and drug trafficking on its northern border with Syria, pledging $500 million in the second half of 2022 to that end.
A seven-year memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Jordanian governments will provide $1.45 billion in assistance to Jordan through 2022. Additional funding and assistance packages were recently announced, bringing U.S. assistance to Jordan to a total of $2.1 billion, the highest annual funding to date.
As the two countries celebrate 75 years of diplomatic relations, it is no exaggeration to say that the United States is Jordan’s most important and most reliable partner, and with the help of President Joe Biden, King Abdullah, and the role of both countries’ diplomatic missions, the relationship is currently at its best.
Beyond the government, U.S. appeal among the Jordanian public dipped in Washington’s early response to the Israeli-Hamas war but has recovered significantly in recent months. A May poll by NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions found that three-quarters of Jordanians believe the war in Gaza has not affected U.S.-Jordanian relations.
The poll also found that 31.7% of Jordanians see the United States as Jordan’s most important political ally, second only to Saudi Arabia at 32%, up from 20% when asked in November 2023. Similarly, 38% named the United States as Jordan’s most important economic donor, up from 29% last November.
The strong ties between Jordan and the United States have been of great benefit in maintaining stability during some of the region’s most volatile times.
Mohammed Abu Darhoum
While negative sentiment remains widespread about America’s role in the Gaza conflict, this does not appear to affect Jordanians’ desire for stronger ties between the United States and Jordan. More than half of Jordanians are in favor of stronger ties between the two governments, up 10 percentage points; 36 percent say they want relations to remain at their current level. Equally important, more than three-quarters of Jordanians do not want their country to have stronger ties with Russia or China any more than they want their country to have stronger ties with the United States.
There are several factors that lead Jordanians to maintain a positive attitude towards US-Jordan relations, despite their opposition to US foreign policy regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the war in Gaza has had a significant impact on Jordan and Jordanian public opinion, steadfast US support for Jordan offsets many of the differences. This means that Jordanians have a realistic and rationalistic approach in assessing their country’s foreign relations.
Jordan’s most important foreign policy priorities are centered on gaining support for its economy and helping to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in which the United States far surpasses all others, and the Jordanian people recognize and understand this reality.
However, the enormous diplomatic efforts between the United States and Jordan over the past four years, and especially the past nine months, will come to a halt in anticipation of the outcome of the crucial presidential election in November. It is unclear how the Trump administration will approach U.S. support for Jordan this time around, but the current administration’s support is clear and demonstrated.
America’s appeal among Jordanians has increased significantly since Biden took office: According to a NAMA poll, 75% of Jordanians viewed U.S.-Jordanian political relations positively in 2018, but that figure is expected to rise to 85% by early 2021 and 88% by May 2024.
U.S. assistance to Jordan has increased 65 percent under the Biden Administration compared to the Trump Administration. This assistance has been critical to Jordan’s economic recovery, political reform, and security measures. Equally important, U.S.-Jordan trade volume increased 32 percent between 2018 and 2023.
While Jordan certainly enjoys positive bipartisan support, it is undeniable that the country suffered to some extent under the Trump administration, especially in the way that its historical custody rights over Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem were ignored.
Will a second term for President Trump be deja vu for Jordan? Or will the Arab nation, which has once again emerged as a reliable partner of the US during the region’s most turbulent and unstable times, maintain US support and its strategic geopolitical importance through the new Biden administration? The Jordanian government will be watching the election with anxiety, as it means more for Jordan’s future than meets the eye.
• Mohammed Abu Darhoum is President of MENAACTION and Senior Research Analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the authors in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
