Markets are expecting Donald Trump to return to the presidency in the next US elections.
The assassination attempt on the Republican candidate has boosted expectations that Trump will win the November election, boosting shares of cryptocurrency, gun stocks and other companies that could benefit from a Donald Trump presidency.
Trump, who survived being shot in the ear during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, extended his already sizable lead over U.S. President Joe Biden in betting odds on Monday.
On the political betting website PredictIt, a contract for a Trump election win was trading for 68 cents on Monday, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a potential payout of $1. A contract for a Biden victory was trading at 26 cents.
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, majority owned by President Trump, have soared 30%, giving the company a market capitalization of $7.6 billion, with revenue equivalent to that of two U.S. Starbucks stores.
Trump Media is the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, whose shares have risen 129% in 2024 after retail investors predicted that Donald Trump would win a second term as U.S. president. He served as president from 2017 to 2021.
“There are almost four months left [until the election] “Things could change, but right now the market is expecting Trump to win,” said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI, adding that Trump media is “the tip of the spear and most sensitive to a Trump victory.”
Shares in electric car maker Tesla rose 5.2% after billionaire CEO Elon Musk publicly supported Trump after the shooting.
Crypto stocks surged, tracking bitcoin’s 10% rise to a two-week high and Trump’s self-described champion of the cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global and bitcoin miners Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital each jumped more than 10%.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose on expectations that Trump administration policies will boost government debt and stimulate inflation, while the benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.5%, approaching a new record high.
“Most investors haven’t changed their overall stance on U.S. stocks. After all, the overall stock market rose under the Trump administration and is rising under the Biden administration,” said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments.
Stock prices soar
Gun makers and ammunition stocks Smith & Wesson Brands Inc., Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. and Ammo Corp. rose between 7 and 15 percent. Firearms stocks have surged in the past in the wake of mass shootings, civil unrest and concerns about gun control, as people who fear restrictions on access to firearms increase their purchases.
Shares of private prison operators Geo Group and CoreCivic rose about 8% each, both of which could benefit from President Trump’s pledge to crack down on illegal immigration, which could lead to increased demand for detention facilities.
Funware, a software development company tapped by President Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign to develop a phone app, rose 4%, while Rumble, a video-sharing platform popular with conservatives, rose 13%.
Clean energy stocks fell after President Trump said he would roll back many of the Biden administration’s signature climate change policies, including tax breaks, if he wins the election.
The Invesco Solar ETF fell 5.6%, and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF dropped 3.7%.
The iShares MSCI China ETF fell 2% as investors believe President Trump’s reelection could escalate trade tensions between Beijing and the United States.
A Biden administration is set to benefit from a robust economy with slowing inflation and falling unemployment, but U.S. voters see Trump as the better candidate for the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“In the absence of substantive policy announcements from President Trump, traders are being forced to speculate,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial Corp.
“President Trump’s reelection would generally mean more stimulus, lower income taxes, less regulation and higher tariffs.”
