Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Yahoo ADP: QB14 vs. My Rank: QB9
Washington will likely regret drafting Daniels over Drake May, but that doesn’t mean Daniels can’t be an immediate fantasy force. Last season, Daniels averaged the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels averaged over 60 rushing yards and 34 rushing touchdowns in college, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray become a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s tactics ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons at Arizona and generated the run at the league’s highest rate against light boxes.
Daniels is a truly elite runner, leading all NCAA quarterbacks in tackles per missed tackle (0.72) last year while also leading all Power Five quarterbacks in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF rushing grade (92.4 – best). Until nowRunning not only gives fantasy quarterbacks an edge, it also gives them a floor, and Daniels is more likely to run as a rookie than any quarterback in the league.
Daniels is certainly an injury risk, but the quarterback depth is deeper than it’s ever been (and he wasn’t drafted as a QB1), and Daniels’ ADP rose over the summer but is still too low.
Malik Neighbors, WR, New York Giants
Yahoo ADP: WR29 vs. My Rank: WR15
Neighbors had a prolific collegiate career at LSU, racking up over 3,000 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns in three seasons. In his final season, he led all WRs in yards per route run and career yards per team attempt, two of the highest signal metrics, and he’s not even 21 yet. He’s an elite tackle breaker who can play in the slot or on the outside.
While New York’s QB situation isn’t ideal, Neighbors had a monster rookie season in an otherwise great situation. The Giants arguably have the thinnest WR depth in the league, losing both Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller during the offseason. Brian Daboll, despite a dismal offense last season, posted a top-five no-huddle rate as one of the quickest in the league, and the entire NFC East should be high-tempo and generate a ton of plays.
The Giants bolstered their offensive line during the offseason, and Daboll led a Buffalo offense that averaged 165 targets on Stefon Diggs in 2020-2021. Daboll seems to like Neighbors enough to spend the sixth overall pick on the LSU star. Neighbors has only a 45% chance of having a better fantasy season than Marvin Harrison Jr., but curiously, the latter’s ADP is 55th higher.
Neighbors is expected to receive over 140 targets as a rookie and has the potential to rise further, making his WR29 ADP look wildly off.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP: RB21 vs. My Rank: RB11
Typically it’s best not to target a 29-year-old running back with a history of missing games, but Conner’s ADP remains very low due to injury concerns and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most RB fantasy points since Week 13 last season and finished third in rushing yards above expectation behind Christian McCaffrey and Devon Achan. Conner is an underrated 3-down back who quietly led all RBs in rushing yards of 20+ yards last season.
The Cardinals had a top-10 offense after Week 10 last season after Kyler Murray returned. Arizona’s rushing attack led the NFL in yards per game (5.3) and EPA per attempt. Murray should improve in his second year back from surgery, and the Cardinals got a weapon in Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride looks like a star tight end, and Arizona played snaps with the sixth-longest seconds on the play clock last season (despite shaky quarterback play before Murray returned).
Conner has missed multiple games every season so far in his career, so it’s best to plan for him to miss 2024 as well. Drafting Benson can be seen as a plus for Conner, since it’s unlikely that Benson will take away too many touches (3rd round with a low athleticism score). But if Conner misses a game, he’s clearly an RB2. Use a 9th or 10th round pick as insurance, since Benson will be drafted as RB30 with the 115th pick (for the games Conner misses, Benson could be a top 15 RB in this system).
All running backs carry significant injury risk, but Conner could very well be a top-five fantasy RB when healthy, and he’s a bargain to acquire in the fifth or sixth round.
Jonathan Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Yahoo ADP: RB37 vs. My Rank: RB22
Brooks was rated as equal to or better than Bijan Robinson in most rushing/receiving categories as the Texas starting running back in 2023. He’s a three-down back and arguably the best running back prospect in this year’s draft (and would have been drafted higher had he not had ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans to run the ball a lot, and top-50 players have historically performed well in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the ninth-best fantasy running back through the final seven weeks of last year, and Canales should be a big boost for a bolstered Carolina offense that also added Dionta Johnson during the offseason. Brooks may need to be patient as he’s coming off surgery, but his ADP factors that in too much. If Brooks is healthy, Hubbard and Miles Sanders shouldn’t be obstacles. Brooks should be a workhorse in Canales’ scheme for the second half of the season, which is what matters most in fantasy.
There is a big tier break from RB20 onwards, and Brooks is the most fantasy potential of them all.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP: WR21 vs. My Rank: WR12
Kupp’s performance undoubtedly declined last season while playing through obvious injuries. However, when out of shape, Kupp was able to match Puka Nacua’s targets, including the lead in target share, when he was on the field with him. Kupp ranked ninth in red zone receptions after playing just 12 games on one leg. Nacua emerged as a true alpha as a rookie and will continue to demand targets, but Kupp will finally be healthy in 2024.
Kupp just turned 31, but fantasy wide receivers typically don’t show much decline even in their eighth year in the league. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play last season when the offense was fully healthy, and Sean McVay is a master at scoring fantasy points for wide receivers. Kupp went 191-145-1,947-16 in his two seasons, but is available in the fourth round of the Yahoo Draft, with 20 wide receivers taken ahead of him.
The Rams have WR3 Demarcus Robinson, TE1 Colby Parkinson and a RB1 who has been injured multiple times in his short career, so the targets will be extremely limited. Additionally, Nacua ran more routes last season than he did in college, so there’s little guarantee he’ll hold up, making him a big possibility for Kupp.
I rank Kupp as a top 12 fantasy WR, but he is available in the fourth round.
