Donald Trump’s stance on China risks angering Republicans

President Donald Trump’s doubts about the US’s security posture towards Taiwan appear to be at odds with Republican views on protecting the island from Chinese aggression, an exclusive Republican poll has found. Newsweek.

The survey by Redfield & Wilton Strategies was conducted on Monday, the day before Bloomberg published an interview with Trump in which he said, “Taiwan should pay for our defense.”

While there are no formal diplomatic ties between the two countries, the United States is Taiwan’s most important international backer and is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the means for its defense. Washington, however, maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its sovereignty over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory – a claim Taiwan denies.

China’s belligerent stance in the South China Sea has been a constant source of concern for Taiwan and its neighbors. Shortly after Lai Ching-te took office as president of Taiwan in May, China conducted military drills around the island.

Trump’s comments added uncertainty about what his policy toward Taiwan would be if he wins the November election. He told Bloomberg that Taiwan is “9,500 miles away” but “only 68 miles from China.” He also complained that Taiwan “has taken our semiconductor business.”

Redfield and Wilton Strategies Poll Newsweek The results of the 3,500-person poll offered a glimpse into American voters’ support for a China invasion of Taiwan.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 1.44 percentage points, asked how much Americans support the United States and allies such as Britain coming to Taiwan’s aid if China invaded the island.

Among Republicans, 43% approved or strongly approved of U.S. assistance, more than double the 18% who disapproved or strongly opposed such measures. Twelve percent of respondents said they didn’t know.

This Republican support was roughly in line with that expressed by voters across the board: About 44% of respondents approved or strongly approved of U.S. assistance to Taiwan, again three times as many as the 14% who disapproved or strongly disapproved of the move. Just over a quarter (26%) neither approved nor disapproved, and 16% said they didn’t know.

Asked for comment, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Chang said: Newsweek, “There was peace during President Trump’s time in office. Unfortunately, President Joe Biden represents more war, more conflict and more unnecessary aggression.”

“The president is a very strong supporter of the Democratic Party,” said Jiqun Zhu, a political science professor at Bucknell University in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Newsweek“Polls show that Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to support the U.S. defending Taiwan,” but other survey questions may yield different answers. “If asked if they would support the U.S. sending troops to Taiwan in a war with China, they would still not have a majority say yes.”

“President Trump has not been proactive in defending Taiwan,” Zhu said, adding that what the United States would do if Taiwan were invaded under Trump’s administration would depend on the situation.

“If China were to launch a sudden, unprovoked attack, the United States would definitely come to Taiwan’s aid,” Chu said, but if Taiwan moves forward with de jure independence from China, “it is likely that the United States will not intervene, or will only engage minimally, if war breaks out.”

“Many people in Taiwan also have clear ideas about the possibility of U.S. assistance. They have seen the war between Russia and Ukraine and realize that relying entirely on the U.S. for Taiwan’s self-defense is not a good idea.”

Trump also reversed his stance as president after trying to ban the Chinese social media giant TikTok, telling Bloomberg that he supports TikTok because “we need competition.”

“Trump could be criticized for being soft on China,” said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at the Watson Research Center.

“In the past Trump administration, U.S.-China relations plummeted as China hawks like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo came to power,” he said. NewsweekThese are references to a former national security adviser and former secretary of state who later became critics of Trump.

But Goldstein said it’s worth noting that Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, supports more support for Taiwan, and that leading Republican strategists have criticized Democrats for focusing too much on Russia and ignoring the threat from China.

“While both are certainly troubling situations, neither constitutes a significant national security interest for the United States,” he added.

Taiwan will work with the United States and other allies to “strengthen national defense capabilities” to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, Kuo Yu-chiao, deputy director-general of the North American Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan, said on Thursday.

“We need to put President Trump’s remarks in broader perspective. He wasn’t saying the US won’t defend Taiwan. He was saying Taiwan should shoulder more of the costs of collective defense,” said Miles Yu, director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center.

“The big difference between President Trump and President Biden is that the former places the greatest emphasis on deterrence and the latter places less emphasis on it,” he said. Newsweek. “Preventing war with Taiwan through a credible deterrent is a hallmark of President Trump, and he has publicly stated that he would bomb Beijing if China invades Taiwan.”

“The common defense of Taiwan is the consensus of the people,” Yu added, saying “it will be extremely difficult to change that.”

Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at University College London, said Taiwan would find ways to cooperate and “pay an insurance premium if necessary” if Trump was re-elected.

“An invasion of Taiwan would still be a more difficult operation than the Normandy landings, and President Xi Jinping would not want to order an invasion unless he was confident of success,” he said. Newsweek“For this to happen, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) must be fully prepared. Recent turmoil within the PLA leadership suggests that it is not.”