Netanyahu’s visit to the US could be crucial to reaching a ceasefire agreement, but does he want one?

Tel Aviv, Israel
CNN
—

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Monday without the attention he had expected the day before.

Netanyahu’s highly anticipated visit, packed with meetings with senior US officials and a rare speech in Congress, will undoubtedly be overshadowed by US President Joe Biden’s shock decision to withdraw from the presidential race. But Netanyahu’s visit will remain crucial for prospects for a Gaza ceasefire as detailed ceasefire negotiations aimed at turning the Agreed Framework into a final agreement enter their third week.

U.S. officials say a deal is within reach, but its prospects may depend on the answer to one key question: Does Prime Minister Netanyahu really want a deal?

Conventional wisdom in the Israeli media, politics and on the streets of Tel Aviv would say the answer to that question is no: Netanyahu has much to gain by prolonging the war and much to lose by ending it.

The war has allowed Netanyahu to postpone accountability for the failures leading up to the October 7 attacks, and with a resolute wartime resolve he has rejected calls for new elections. His party’s prospects in the next elections have actually improved in recent months, and his right-wing coalition partners who keep him in power have threatened to quit if he cuts a deal to end the war.

Even Biden said people have “good reason” to believe Netanyahu is prolonging the war in Gaza in order to stay in power.

There are also signs that Netanyahu is creating last-minute obstacles to an agreement. He has reneged on a key Israeli concession included in Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal to allow unrestricted Palestinian access to northern Gaza, and now appears to insist that Israel maintain control of the Philadelphia Corridor, a 14-kilometer stretch of land that serves as a buffer zone on the Egyptian-Gaza border. And publicly, his comments are undermining confidence in Israel’s resolve to reach a deal that could end the war.

But Prime Minister Netanyahu and his negotiating team are also steadily negotiating, exchanging proposals with Hamas and bringing the two sides closer to an agreement. There is growing demand from Israeli citizens, particularly from hostage families, for the government to reach an agreement.

Shortly after arriving in Washington, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with families of hostages being held in Gaza and said a deal to secure their release could be close.

“The conditions for their return are in place for the simple reason that we are putting very strong pressure on Hamas,” Netanyahu said in a statement from his office on Monday.

Netanyahu’s allies insist he is keen to strike a hostage release deal – just the right one, one that would allow Israel to resume fighting in Gaza.

These tensions will be inevitable now that Prime Minister Netanyahu has sought to bolster Israel’s standing in the United States and his own political standing at home.

While Prime Minister Netanyahu will seek to demonstrate that he still has support in Washington (a standing ovation from a majority of members of Congress would likely suffice), the visit is also an opportunity for U.S. officials and lawmakers, publicly and privately, to push, nudge, cajole and persuade the prime minister toward a deal.

Leading the way among those eager to make that case will be the U.S. president, who will meet face-to-face with Netanyahu this week for the first time since Biden visited Israel in October in a dramatic show of wartime support.

The warmth and sympathy that filled the air during my October visit will likely be replaced by something much colder.

Biden has become steadily more critical of Israel’s war in Gaza – which has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry – while Netanyahu has resisted U.S. pressure and shown open contempt for the White House.

While Biden maintains strong support for Israel, he became the first president since Ronald Reagan to withhold U.S. military supplies to Israel, suspending shipments of 2,000-pound bombs in May over concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has strengthened his political standing in Israel by not only resisting U.S. calls to curb Israeli military operations in Gaza, but also by defying White House calls for restraint, including in a speech just days before his visit to the U.S. in which he stressed his refusal to bow to pressure from Biden to end the war and abandon a planned attack on Rafah.

Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race just two days before he meets Netanyahu will undoubtedly further shift the balance of power between the two men, but how that will play out remains to be seen.

Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader to meet with the lame-duck president, who still has six months in office and will continue to steer US foreign policy.

Freed from the constraints of electoral politics and with more of an eye on his own accomplishments, how will Biden approach Netanyahu, the future of the Gaza war and US policy towards Israel — and to what extent will Netanyahu feel the need to heed Biden’s pressure?

While the Israeli prime minister is considering new developments, Netanyahu, a keen observer of US politics, may be looking to another man – former US President Donald Trump – to decide whether to take steps towards a ceasefire.

Trump, a staunch supporter of Israel, has criticized Biden’s efforts to rein in Israeli actions in Gaza. In a speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump warned that the hostages “had better be home before I take office, or there will be a very heavy price to pay.”

But in April, Trump called on Israel to “end and end quickly” the war in Gaza.

And Prime Minister Netanyahu no longer enjoys the close relationship he once had with Trump.

“The first person to congratulate Biden was Bibi (Netanyahu). Not only did he congratulate him, he did it on tape,” Trump told CNN analyst Barak Rabid in 2021. “He was very quick, quicker than most people. I haven’t spoken to him since. Shithole.”

Netanyahu will have ample opportunity to gauge whether those feelings remain when he meets with Trump allies in Washington this week. There are no immediate plans for him to meet with Trump.