During the third week of July, prices continued to rise in most of Europe’s major electricity markets compared to the previous week. However, a drop in prices over the weekend meant that the weekly price increase did not exceed 10%. Portugal again set a new all-time record for solar power generation on 16 July, while France recorded its highest monthly production using this technology in July on 18 July. On the same day, Italy recorded its highest electricity demand so far in 2024.
Photovoltaic power generation, solar thermal power generation, wind power generation
During the week of July 15th, Solar Energy Production Germany, France and Portugal all saw increases compared to the previous week. The German market recorded the largest increase of 9.3%, followed by France at 5.8% and Portugal at 2.9%. Portugal saw its third consecutive week of growth in solar PV, while Germany and France saw their second consecutive week of growth. Solar power and Solar power generationIn Italy, solar power production also fell by 0.9% compared to the second week of July.
During the third week of July, the Portuguese market again set a new all-time record for solar photovoltaic energy production on Tuesday, July 16, surpassing the record set on Saturday, July 13. Meanwhile, the French market recorded its highest daily solar photovoltaic energy production for the month of July, reaching 127 GWh on Thursday, July 18.
The fourth week of July AleaSoft Energy ForecastAccording to the PV production forecast, the German, Spanish and Italian markets are expected to see increases compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the third week of July Wind-power generation Most of the main European electricity markets saw a decrease in production compared to the previous week. France was the only market to increase, at 31%, while Spain’s production using this technology remained at the same level as the previous week. Meanwhile, Germany saw the largest decrease of 15%, followed by Italy at 14%. Portugal saw a slight decrease of 0.1%.
according to AleaSoft Energy ForecastAccording to the forecast, wind power production will increase in the German, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets during the week of 22 July, but will decrease in the French market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Power Demand
In the third week of July, Power Demand The main European electricity markets showed some variation compared to the previous week. Demand increased in the Italian, Spanish and French markets. Italy saw the largest increase of 7.1%. Spain, which saw its fifth consecutive week of demand growth, saw an increase of 3.4%, while France saw the lowest increase of 1.6%. Meanwhile, demand decreased in Portugal, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. In this case, Portugal saw the largest increase of 2.7%, while Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands all saw a decrease of 0.8%. The United Kingdom saw the smallest decrease in demand, at 0.6%. Germany and Belgium maintained their third consecutive week of declines.
On Thursday 18 July, the Italian market recorded its highest demand this year, at 1,158 GWh.
During the week, Average Temperature Compared to the second week of July, temperatures increased in all surveyed markets. The Belgian and Dutch markets recorded the largest increases, with 3.2°C and 2.8°C respectively. In the United Kingdom, the average temperature increased by 2.4°C. Markets on the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Germany and France saw increases ranging from 0.5°C in Italy to 1.9°C in France.
During the week of July 22nd, AleaSoft Energy ForecastThe demand forecast predicts that the Spanish, Portuguese and Dutch markets will see an increase in electricity demand compared to the previous week, while the German, French, Belgian, Italian and UK markets will see a decrease in demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity market
In the third week of July, prices increased in Europe’s main electricity markets compared to the previous week. However, due to price declines over the weekend, the weekly average price increase did not exceed 10% compared to the previous week. The exceptions were: Nordpool Market In the Nordic countries, there was an 11% decrease. IPEX Market Italy recorded the lowest growth rate at 2.2%. In contrast, EPEX Spot Market France recorded the highest price increase of 10%. AleaSoft Energy ForecastIn Germany’s EPEX SPOT market, prices rose 3.6%; Mibel Market Spanish.
In the third week of July, the weekly average in most European electricity markets analysed fell below €75/MWh. N2EX Market The exceptions were the UK and Italian markets, with averages of 88.55€/MWh and 115.27€/MWh respectively. The Nordic markets had the lowest weekly average, at 24.63€/MWh. In the other markets analysed, prices ranged from 57.62€/MWh in the French market to 73.82€/MWh in the Portuguese market.
In terms of hourly prices, most of the analyzed European markets recorded negative prices on the 20th and 21st of July. The exceptions are the UK, Italian and Nordic markets. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets also recorded negative prices on the 15th and 16th of July. On Tuesday 16th of July, between 14:00 and 15:00, the German market recorded the lowest hourly price of the third week of July, at €11.48/MWh.
During the week of July 15, prices increased in European electricity markets due to a slight increase in the weekly average gas price in most analyzed markets and a drop in wind power production. In the Spanish and Italian markets, solar power production also decreased. Furthermore, electricity demand increased in Spain, France and Italy.
AleaSoft Energy ForecastAccording to the price forecast, prices in the fourth week of July are expected to be similar to the previous week. In some markets, prices will fall, while in others, the price increase will be smaller than in the third week of July. A recovery in wind and solar power production in most analyzed electricity markets will contribute to this development.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuel, CO2
Brent Crude Oil Front Futures? Monthly ICE Market The third week of July began with a decline in prices. Prices recovered on July 17 and 18, and on Thursday, July 18, these futures reached the highest settlement price for the week, $85.11/bbl. However, on Friday, July 19, prices fell 2.9% from the previous day. The settlement price on that day was the lowest for the week, $82.63/bbl. AleaSoft Energy ForecastThe price was down 2.8% from last Friday and the lowest since mid-June.
Concerns over Chinese demand, a strong dollar and a possible Gaza ceasefire had a downward impact on Brent crude futures prices in the third week of July, but the possibility of a US interest rate cut from September and supply concerns due to wildfires in Canada limited the price decline.
In the fourth week of July, US President Joe Biden’s announcement that he will not run for reelection and developments in the Middle East conflict could affect these futures prices.
As for TTF Gas The front-month futures price on the ICE market hit a weekly minimum settlement price of 31.37€/MWh on Monday, July 15. On Tuesday, July 16, a 5.9% increase was observed compared to the previous day, resulting in futures reaching a weekly maximum settlement price of 33.24€/MWh on the same day. AleaSoft Energy ForecastThis was the highest price since July 5. In the final session of the week, prices fell but remained above €32/MWh. The settlement price on Friday, July 19, was €32.17/MWh, 1.4% higher than the previous Friday.
Supply levels and high European reserves have kept TTF Gas futures settlement prices below €33/MWh for almost all sessions in the third week of July, despite rising temperatures in Europe. Forecasts of milder temperatures and increased wind power generation could have a downside impact in the fourth week of July. Additionally, operations at the Freeport liquefied natural gas export plant are expected to gradually resume as repairs from damage caused by Hurricane Beryl are completed.
Payment price CO2 Emissions allowance future EEX Market As for the benchmark December 2024 futures, they fell in almost every session during the third week of July, with the exception of Tuesday 16 July, when these futures reached their highest settlement price for the week, 68.02 EUR/ton, while on Friday 19 July, as a result of the recorded decline, these futures reached their lowest settlement price for the week, 66.30 EUR/ton. AleaSoft Energy ForecastThe price was down 4.2% from last Friday and the lowest since the end of April.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting provides analysis on European energy market outlook and renewable energy project financing and valuation
In July, AleaSoft Energy Forecast and Alea Green We have updated our long-term price curve forecasts for the European market. These forecasts are: Renewable Energy Project Financing, crisis management and hedge, Paper negotiation, Portfolio Assessment and auditlong-term energy trading, and other applications related to renewable energy development.
Long-term forecast report AleaSoft Energy Forecast and Alea Green Hourly forecasts with 30-year forecast horizon and confidence intervals, and Wind and Solar powerand annual scenarios for explanatory variables.
