Weeks after Hurricane Beryl caused devastation in the Caribbean and knocked out power to millions in southeast Texas, new chaos is brewing in the tropics, as the National Hurricane Center tracks a central Atlantic system that shows signs of gaining strength.
Meteorologists say that extremely dry air and a plume of dust made of sand and fine minerals rising from the Sahara Desert in Africa have stunted thunderstorm activity and tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the past month, but as the dry, dusty air dwindles and ocean temperatures continue to rise, activity is expected to pick up in late July and early August.
“We’re going to see a lot more tropical weather in the region, especially as we see La Niña begin to develop,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Leppert told USA Today on Sunday. “We were expecting at least a temporary lull in the weather until early August, when we’re going to start to see more opportunities and threats for development.”
Last weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported that there was an “area of disturbing weather” over the Central Atlantic that was forecast to interact with an approaching tropical storm over the next few days. By Sunday morning, officials said there was a 40% chance that the system would develop over the next seven days.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance is expected to develop within the next day or two and could develop into a tropical storm while it is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, or the southwest Atlantic Ocean sometime mid-to-late this week.
The hurricane occurred two weeks after tropical activity in the Atlantic had subsided. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season got off to an “explosive start” when Category 4 hurricane Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island on July 1, before weakening to a Category 1 the following week and slamming into the Texas coast.
Dry, dusty air could hinder tropical development
AccuWeather meteorologists said a low-pressure system that recently moved off the coast of Africa could develop into August, but the chances of a low-pressure system developing in the next 48 hours are low, near 0 percent, the National Hurricane Center said.
“We have dry, dusty air over much of the Atlantic Ocean that could prevent development,” Reppert said. “The system is still well east of the Leeward Islands and has several hundred miles to go before it gets anywhere near where it’s expected to at least try to develop.”
Dr. Gilles Trepanier, an associate professor in the Department of Geography and Anthropology at Louisiana State University, noted that tropical development is “somewhat sporadic” during the earliest stages of the hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
“August and September is the most active period of the Atlantic season,” Trepanier told USA Today. “We’re entering the area where we’re most likely to see more sharks than any other time of the year.”
Trepanier said the Mid-Atlantic disturbance is currently a collection of smaller thunderstorms that could form into a single system. AccuWeather Chief Forecaster Bernie Rayno said the system could face “more favorable conditions” for tropical development in August if it breaks through the severe conditions.
Dangerous hurricane season
Forecasters have warned of a dangerous hurricane season, and they remain true to their belief: Despite a period of calm after Beryl, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be very active.
Beryl broke records, rapidly intensifying into the fastest Category 5 hurricane on record. After making landfall on the Texas coast, forecasters at Colorado State University raised their hurricane forecast for this season to a total of 12 hurricanes and 25 storms.
“Hurricane Beryl, a tropical Category 5 hurricane, will likely herald an active season,” the latest forecast said.
In May, NOAA predicted an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with the agency predicting a total of 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 of which would become hurricanes.
The unusual season is the result of a confluence of factors, including warmer than normal water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, a La Niña weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, and reduced trade winds and wind shear in the Atlantic, the agency said.
USA Today previously reported that daily ocean temperature records have been broken since the start of 2023, with experts calling Atlantic water temperatures “utterly astonishing.”
Contributors: Cheryl McLeod and Jennifer Sangaran, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida
