The data shows that reported crime in Austin through the middle of the year has fallen to its lowest level in the past five years for the same reporting period, but homicides are higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic and car thefts remain elevated.
The decline in crime is in line with a trend that the Austin Police Department said in April was “cautiously optimistic” crime would continue to decline throughout the year.
“I’m more optimistic than I was in the past,” said Augie Krobatch, the police department’s acting data initiatives and analytics strategy officer. “I want to reiterate that I’m cautiously optimistic, but it does appear that we are seeing a downward trend, and that trend is continuing, so that’s definitely a reason to be optimistic.”
To record crime data, the police department uses the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, which it switched to in 2019. The system breaks down reported crimes into three categories: crimes against people, property, and society. Austin had the lowest crime totals in the first half of 2024, according to crime reporting data available for January through June of each year.
The only area that saw an increase this year was crimes against society, which is primarily made up of drug arrests. Crimes against persons and crimes against property were down about 10% and 13%, respectively, compared to 2020.
Krobach said arrests are also up this year and while crime appears to be down, police are still responding to a high number of critical incidents, which he believes may be the reason Austin has seen an increase in suicides this year.
Earlier this year, Austin Police released a new crime data portal that includes a crime dashboard going back to 2020.
Murders, car thefts remain high in Austin
While most crime categories show declines in Austin, the number of murders reported from January through June is nearly double the number reported during the same period in 2019.
Crime analyst Jeff Usher added that while the number of reported murders is high, Austin’s crime rates are generally lower than other major cities, so there’s nothing unusual about Austin’s crime numbers, and that data from just the first six months of the year is not enough to draw any conclusions.
“Austin in general has lower homicides and gun violence than other areas,” Usher said. “When it comes to property crime, Austin is average. … What stands out is that there’s nothing that really stands out, Austin is seeing similar trends to other areas. Murders are down significantly, violent crime and property crime are down overall, but it’s much more gradual and mild.”
Homicide cases have spiked nationwide during the pandemic, with Austin recording its highest number of homicides of any year in 2021. Reported homicides have continued to decline since then, but the 29 recorded through June marks an increase compared to the 14 reported in the first six months of 2019 and the 23 reported during the same period in 2020.
The Council on Criminal Justice, which recently released its midyear crime analysis, found that two-thirds of the 29 cities studied have higher homicide rates so far in 2024 than they were in 2019.
Austin has followed a national trend, reporting higher numbers of auto thefts every month this year. Data shows June saw the fewest auto thefts since January 2023. However, other months this year have also seen higher numbers of auto thefts.
Asher said there has been an increase in car thefts across the country sparked by social media challenges, but that it’s a rare crime trend.
Is crime in Austin decreasing or just being reported less?
Crime data is tricky because many crimes go unreported, but Usher said it’s not a new phenomenon and there’s no evidence to suggest more people are not reporting crimes.
In 2022, only about a quarter of crimes, such as theft of personal property and rape, were reported, according to the Pew Research Center.
“I would say the trends we’re noticing are accurate, but they should not be considered exact,” Usher said.
Krobach said under-reporting of crimes is “definitely a statistical factor” to consider when looking at crime data, but he believes Austin has seen an overall decrease in violent crime this year based on the reported data.
Krobach said it’s very important for anyone who is a victim of a crime to report it because even if police are unable to make an arrest, it could lead to the crime being solved at a later date.
“We need to let the community know that your report isn’t just going into the system, that there is someone looking at it,” she said. “We don’t want people to lose trust and stop reporting it if it feels like it’s not going anywhere.”
