Harris vs. Trump race widens gender gap: From Politico Desk

Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.

In today’s edition, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray examines the widening gender gap in the polls for the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, plus we cover how VP candidate and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is reassessing his position on abortion rights.

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Harris vs. Trump gender gap widens

Mark Murray

Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, a series of polls conducted nationwide and in battleground states have shown the race to be much closer than it was after his dismal debate performance.

But these polls reveal another important trend: There is a huge gender gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and in some cases that gap is larger than it was in 2016 or 2020.

Take a look at the latest New York Times/Siena College poll: Harris holds a 14-point lead over Trump among female voters (55% to 41%), while Trump holds a 17-point lead among men (56% to 39%) — a net 31-point difference between the sexes.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll finds the gap even wider, with women beating Harris by 16 points (56% to 40%) and men beating Trump by 23 points (60% to 37%). (Note: the Quinnipiac poll was conducted before and after Biden dropped out of the 2024 race.) That’s a staggering 39-point gender gap.

View this graphic on nbcnews.com

Compare this to the 2016 Trump-Hillary Clinton race, where NBC News exit polls found the gender gap was 24 points. In exit polls following the 2020 Biden-Trump race, the figure was 23 points.

Other recent surveys have shown the gender gap narrowing: A national CNN poll put Harris ahead of Trump by 16 points, while an NPR/PBS/Marist poll put it at just 4 points.

And remember, there’s a large margin of error in scrutinizing these demographics, so the numbers will fluctuate from poll to poll.

But overall, these new polls highlight that the widening gender gap could be a big factor in the new Harris vs. Trump fight, and that Trump’s advantage among men appears to be larger than Harris’ advantage among women.

Vice Presidential Election: Beshear’s abortion record faces new scrutiny

by Adam Edelman, Yamis Alcindor, Amanda Turkel, Sahil Kapoor, Alex Seitz-Wald

One of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s strengths as Harris’ running mate is that he can appeal to centrist voters as a Democrat who was re-elected in a state that Donald Trump won by more than 20 percentage points.

Beshear won his 2023 campaign by touting his support for abortion rights in a state where abortion is almost totally banned, but some Kentucky reproductive rights advocates feel he hasn’t gone far enough on an issue of vital importance to the party nationally, which could affect his chances of joining the presidential tally.

“The low bar here doesn’t help him,” Savannah Trebner, abortion fund director for the Louisville-based reproductive rights advocacy group Kentucky Health Justice Network, said of expectations for a Democratic governor in a Republican-leaning state.

“Certainly, he’s doing better than conservatives and I’m grateful for that,” she continued, “but I worry about how that record will look on the national stage.”

Critics point to Beshear’s choice of Democrat Jacqueline Coleman, who describes herself as “personally pro-life,” as lieutenant governor, his focus on rare exceptions when talking about abortion, and his administration’s avoidance of working closely with reproductive rights groups in the state.

During his first gubernatorial campaign in 2019, Beshear’s allies clashed behind the scenes with reproductive rights groups over what messaging to put in his ads, but sources involved in the effort said his team wanted to focus on the unpopular Republican incumbent governor rather than abortion.

The question is whether Gov. Beshear’s approach will be a negative by confusing the Democratic message, or a positive by fielding a governor who has won on this issue in a Republican-leaning state.

“I think everybody’s looking for the perfect candidate. There’s no one,” said former Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.). “The voters who can be persuaded at this point are not issue voters. If you’re an issue voter, you’ve already made up your mind. They’re more of a visceral voter. And that’s why I think Andy has a great advantage, because he has the scent of empathy.”

Read more about Beshear →

More on Harris’ vice presidential search:

• Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is seen as a possible vice presidential candidate who could strengthen Democrats’ “blue wall,” by Adam Edelman
• ‘The Ultimate Team Player’: Why some Democrats think North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is Harris’ best running mate, by Alex Seitz-Wald

That’s all from the Politics Desk. If you have any comments, please email us here. politicsnewsletters@nbcuni.com

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