2024 Paris Summer Olympics
As much as I hate to admit it, the pool competition is already a third over – in fact, more than a third over if you count the morning session, since there is no qualifying session on the final day of swimming.
We’ve gotten a lot more information on the U.S. Medley Relay over the past few days. The men’s and women’s 100m breaststroke, women’s 100m butterfly, and men’s 100m backstroke have all been completed, with the women’s 100m backstroke semifinal taking place this evening. With the 4x100m freestyle relay thrown in, the only event we haven’t seen yet is the men’s butterfly.
There may have been changes to the men’s and women’s relays as well as the mixed medley, so let’s take a closer look stroke by stroke.
backstroke
woman: Regan Smith She recorded the fastest time in tonight’s women’s 100m backstroke semifinal, a time of 57.97 seconds. Katherine Berkoff She placed third in the preliminaries in 57.99 seconds and in the finals in 58.27 seconds. It would take a major upset for Berkoff to overtake Smith, but even if she does, the coaching staff may still lean on Smith, since she is the fastest woman of all time.
male: Ryan Murphy He won the bronze medal with a score of 52.39. Hunter Armstrong Despite missing out on a spot in the semifinals, finishing in 11th place (53.11), Murphy is all but guaranteed a spot in the backstroke medley relay, but Armstrong could still be in the boys’ medley relay.
Breaststroke
woman: It’s quite easy to understand. Lily King In the 100m breaststroke final, he tied for fourth place with a time of 1 minute 5.60 seconds, ahead of fellow American swimmer Emma Webber In the qualifying round, he tied for 23rd place with a time of 1 minute 7.65 seconds.
male: Like the women, not much changed from the trials to Paris. Nick Fink In the 100m breaststroke he won silver in a time of 59.05, while Sharrie Swanson failed to get out of the semi-finals, finishing 14th in 1:00.16. Hopefully nothing happens, but Fink was in extended close contact with Adam Peaty last night, with the Briton only recently testing positive for COVID.
butterfly
woman: Here’s where things get a little dicey. Gretchen Walsh At last month’s U.S. Olympic Trials, she set a world record of 55.18 and an Olympic record of 55.38 in the semifinals of the 100 butterfly. But she lost to her compatriot in the final. Tori Fuske He reached the wall first and won the gold medal in 55.59, just 0.04 behind Walsh’s 55.63.
male: This event hasn’t happened yet, Caleb Dressel Probably still going to be chosen.
Freestyle
woman: The individual 100 hasn’t been run yet, so we only have the results of the 4×100 relay and Olympic selection to draw on. Kate Douglas Douglas won the Olympic Trials in 52.56 seconds, but did not compete in the individual events. Douglas anchored the 4 x 100 freestyle relay in the preliminary heats with a time of 52.63 seconds, and led the relay in an American record time of 52.98 seconds. Husk and Walsh, who also represented the United States in the individual events, competed in the final relay and won with times of 52.06 and 52.55 seconds.
male: The men’s 100m individual race has also yet to be contested, so the relay result is the only additional information available. Chris Juliano and Jack Alexie In the individual events, the two posted times of 47.38 and 47.47 in the preliminaries. In the relay finals, Alexi took first place with a time of 47.67, and Juliano took second place with a time of 47.33. The results will be more clear in the 100 individual. Hunter ArmstrongHis 46.75 flying split is also not to be missed.
analysis
woman: The first half would likely be a disaster if Smith didn’t take the lead on the relay, leaving King in her familiar position as the breaststroker.Douglas has the fastest personal best in the 100m freestyle (and has also been under 52 seconds), but if you subtract reaction times from the relay split times (to even out relay start advantages somewhat), Douglas’ best time so far is 52.31 seconds and Husk’s is 52.06 seconds.
There are many races between now and the medley relay, but on paper the team of Smith, King, Walsh and Husk seems like the best option. However, it is still early days and we may have more answers in the mixed medley relay.
male: The men’s side is much simpler. Murphy and Fink are solid in the first half, and Dressel’s butterfly ability is hardly in doubt after his lack of success in the 100 butterfly. But there are some questions about his freestyle.
Applying the same formula as for the women, split times and reaction times, Armstrong still leads by a large margin. Her backstroke time was 46.75 seconds, and her slow flying start added up to 0.37 seconds, giving her a time of 46.38 seconds. The next fastest was Jack Alexiehad a leadoff split of 47.67 and a reaction time of 0.69 for a total time of 46.98. Hopefully the 100 will provide some further insight, and if Alexie can improve her time to the U.S. qualifying time of 47.08, she will be guaranteed a spot. As of now, the medley relay looks to be Murphy, Fink, Dressel and Armstrong in that order, but with a strong performance in the 100, it wouldn’t be surprising to see fast Juliano and/or Alexie in the Anchovy.
mixture: Pre-meet calculations put the fastest combination, FMFM, with a combined time of 3:38.90 for Smith, Fink, Walsh, and Juliano. The second-fastest combination was FMMF, with 3:38.96 for Smith, Fink, Dressel, and Douglas. However, Smith has yet to swim the final, and the fastest combination I can find (using only best times/splits this week) is the traditional MMFF order. Individual medalists Murphy and Fink will start, handing off to Walsh, who was 55.38 in the semifinals, and anchor Husk (who was 52.06 in the relay). The team total was 3:38.88, but FMFM’s Smith, Fink, Walsh and Armstrong were not far behind with a 3:39.16, and if Smith could improve her time from 57.92 to 57.42, this relay would be on paper the fastest.
Douglas will face the toughest doubles competition of the night, as the mixed relay also coincides with the men’s 100 butterfly final, 200 individual medley final and 50 freestyle semifinals. (Dressel could compete in the 100 butterfly final and Walsh in the 50 freestyle semifinals.) If she makes it to the individual medley final, Husk would likely replace Douglas in winning the freestyle event.
