A hostess walks past U.S. and Chinese flags ahead of a bilateral meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Guangdong Pearl Island Guesthouse in southern China’s Guangdong province, April 6, 2024. Smoldering tensions between Beijing and Washington remain a top concern for U.S. companies doing business in China, according to a report released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China on Tuesday, April 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, Pool, File)
A congressionally created commission concluded in a report released Monday that without major changes to the national defense strategy, the United States could lose a future global war with Russia or China.
The National Defense Strategy Commission said in a 132-page report that the security environment is the most dangerous since World War II, but that the United States is “unprepared” for a new global conflict.
The committee noted that the United States is being overtaken by China, estimating that Beijing spends at least $711 billion a year on defense, compared with the U.S.’s annual defense budget of nearly $900 billion.
“The committee concludes that China has outperformed the United States in many respects and has significantly negated U.S. military advantages in the Western Pacific through two decades of intensive military investment,” the report said. “Unless the United States makes significant changes, the balance of power will continue to tilt in China’s favor.”
China already has the world’s largest navy and army, surpassing the United States, and continues to modernize its military.
The threat from China has grown more serious in recent years, with Beijing threatening to unify the self-governing island nation of Taiwan, by force if necessary. The United States has an informal relationship with Taiwan but has pledged to defend it. China has also clashed more frequently with the Philippines, a U.S. ally, in disputed waters in the South China Sea.
While the United States identifies China as its greatest threat in its 2022 National Defense Strategy, the committee said it is “not convinced that U.S. forces could prevail” against Chinese forces in a regional conflict.
The Pentagon also has been unable to adapt to growing alliances between hostile nations, including Russia, North Korea and Iran, that could threaten Washington on multiple battlefields, the committee argued.
“A bipartisan call is urgently needed to ensure that the United States makes big changes and critical investments now, rather than waiting for another Pearl Harbor or 9/11,” the report said. “The support and resolve of the American people is essential.”
The group also criticized the Pentagon’s “complex research and development” and use of outdated military equipment, and called for the modernization of the United States.
“The committee concluded that the U.S. military lacks both the capabilities and capacity necessary to be confident that it can deter and win a conflict,” the researchers wrote. “The U.S. military needs to improve its efforts to incorporate new technologies at scale, field more and more capable platforms, software, and weapons, and deploy innovative operating concepts to employ them in combination more effectively.”
They also cited problems with the defense industrial base, calling for a modernization of the industry with diverse companies working among allies. While they acknowledged progress with new efforts such as Replicator, which aims to develop thousands of autonomous drones, the committee said U.S. industry “will not be able to meet the military’s equipment, technology, and munitions needs” in the event of a protracted conflict.
The problem is well documented, with the U.S. industrial base struggling to supply Ukraine with the shells it needs for a war with Russia, which has a much larger artillery arsenal.
The defense industry has also become more consolidated under a handful of large defense contractors that have been accused of overcharging the Pentagon and providing it with undeveloped technology and weapons.
The committee noted that political polarization in the United States also endangers national security, but Americans are still not fully aware of the threats from Beijing and other hostile countries.
To address growing threats, the group recommended the U.S. increase defense spending, continue to strengthen alliances, address talent challenges, and for the Department of Defense to proactively phase out unnecessary programs and invest wisely, particularly in cyber, space, and software. The researchers also called for a national effort in which the government, private companies, and nonprofits work together to support national security needs.
The National Defense Strategy Board was established by Congress in response to the Biden administration’s 2022 defense strategy and began activities in April 2023, including meetings with government and private industry stakeholders.
