Since February 2006, Pakistan and India have met in 33 ODIs, of which India have won 21, and Pakistan just 11, with one match producing no result.
Over the last decades, whenever these two have met in an ODI, it’s India that is pretty much unanimously seen as the favourites. Pakistan’s supporters may tip them to come out on top but that’s largely due to sentimental attachment and not logic.
After all, why won’t a better coached lot, with set systems in place to hone its talent consistently, look better than a lot run as haphazardly as Pakistan. It’s common sense.
Despite that, before every clash, there is that (at least) one raw hope that makes PCT fans think it could be their day. What if Babar and Rizwan do that 152-0 thing again, what if Shaheen gets that early swing, what if Fakhar goes berserk à la CT 2017, or what if Haris finds an extra 5kmph of pace?
It’s always a hoping game.
In all honesty, someone will have to play out of their skin for this team to come out on top. Without the once-in-a-blue-moon kind of magic, the chances of Pakistan coming out of this victorious appear slim on paper.
India, on the other hand, look unfazed to the point of being almost dismissive of the idea that a Pak-India clash brings any added pressure. Sure, the political side of things means that it will always appear to be a rivalry on paper, but India’s body of ODI work against Pakistan over the past two decades tells us that the sporting side of this rivalry is waning.
That’d be a bitter pill to swallow for PCT faithful but the numbers don’t lie.
The data says it all
Since February 2006, Pakistan and India have met in 33 ODIs, of which India have won 21, and Pakistan just 11, with one match producing no result. That’s a win percentage of 66pc for India and just 34pc for Pakistan. We can find comfort in the fact that Pakistan are still far ahead in the overall head-to-head count, leading with 73 wins to India’s 57, but much of that 73-win record was cemented pre-2006.
In fact, up until Pakistan’s tour of India in 2005, India only had 35 ODI wins against Pakistan, who had a staggering 62. Just imagine, 62-35 (64 to 36 in percentage terms) advantage. That’s almost two Pakistan wins for every one of India’s. It’s a stat that should have us find some newfound respect for all the pre-2006 Pakistan sides. While we’re at it, we should put some added respect to the names of the Imrans, the Miandads, the Akrams and Anwars of the past. But let’s not digress.
The tide of Pakistani dominance turned circa 2006 when India left Pakistan with a 4-1 away win under the captaincy of Rahul Dravid — one of the best thinkers in the game. A year on, the MS Dhoni era would begin during which India won 11 of the 19 Pak-India matches. But once Virat Kohli took over from him permanently, India’s ODI dominance over Pakistan became unprecedented.
In the Kohli era, the neighbours played six matches, of which India won five and Pakistan just once. Meanwhile, under Rohit Sharma’s captaincy, India have won two out of two ODIs.
Those numbers may perhaps have been far more in favour of India, had the bilateral cricket continued all through the 2010s and 2020s. Since 2006, Pakistan and India have met only 1.73 times a year in ODIs, down from playing an average of 3.59 matches from 1978 to 2005.
What lies in store
That’s enough of the history. Fast forward to the Feb of 23, 2025, and we see why the trend of India’s upper hand appears set to continue. Thanks to the Indian board’s pull, Sharma and Co will play all their matches in Dubai, where other teams will visit them before going back to Pakistan for their other fixtures. In a way, the home team is Pakistan but the real advantage of familiarity with conditions would lie with India because they play all their matches in one place.
In their first game of the CT 2025, India were a little slow off the blocks but still got the win, thanks to a five-for by a 34-year-old (Mohammad Shami) and an unbeaten century by a 25-year-old (Shubman Gill) — a sign that there is both a blend of experience and youth in their eleven.
That’s not to say that India do not have a few irritations of their own. Virat Kohli, by his standards, is out form. The man who averages 57.78 runs in ODIs has only one half century and a total of 137 runs in his last six outings. Former Indian spinner Anil Kumble thinks Kohli is trying too hard to find form and needs to relax a little. Interestingly though, all five of his dismissals during this stretch have come to spinners, especially leg-spinners, which is why Abrar Ahmed might hold the key to the tie tomorrow.
Pakistan, on the other hand, were outclassed by New Zealand in the tournament opener, losing not just the match by 60 runs but also losing CT 17 hero Fakhar Zaman to injury. Their star batter Babar Azam’s laborious 64 off 90 balls as an opener with a target of 321 has made him a target of criticism from all angles, while the much heralded pace attack just does not seem to win the team any matches like that lot of 90s used to.
Oh, and Fakhar’s replacement is Imamul Haq, who has not played any white-ball cricket at the international level in more than a year. More depressingly, Imam has scored a grand total of 36 runs across five ODI innings against India. That’s an average of 12.8 compared to his career average of 48.27.
In fact, averages are down across the board against India, with Babar’s number dipping from 55.8 (career) to 31.14 (vs India) and Rizwan’s plummeting from 42.1 to 25.5. The only one whose numbers are India-proof is the man who will play no further in CT 2025: Fakhar Zaman. His average of 46.8 against India is actually a slight improvement on his career average of 46.21.
The fast bowlers show a similar pattern. Shaheen Afridi’s bowling average dips from 24.16 for career to 27.42 against India; Naseem Shah’s goes down from 23.08 to 29.66 and Haris Rauf’s plummets the hardest from 26.1 to 42.66.
There can’t be any bigger proof than this story of averages that confirms that there is something about facing India that makes most of our players not play up to their usual potential.
So what do PCT fans do? Wait for the semi-inevitable? Not watch? Pretend to not care?
Not really. Pakistan do have more than a puncher’s chance. On the fans’ part, they can’t throw a ball on the team’s behalf but they can definitely throw in a prayer or two, for this Indian side may have a stronger chance against Pakistan at cricket but it can’t beat a miracle.
