Is the humanoid robot industry ready for its ChatGPT moment?

Humanoid robots, which have made significant technological advances this year, may be at the precipice of a ChatGPT-like spike in investment and popularity — or at least, that’s what many in the industry believe. 

So-called humanoid robots are artificial intelligence-powered machines designed to resemble humans in appearance and movement, with expected use cases across the industrial and service sectors. 

Makers of these robots have been working on the technology in the background for years. Now, they say they’re ready to unleash the technology into the world. 

“There is a consensus in our industry that the ChatGPT moment for humanoid robots has arrived,” Xiong Youjun, general manager at the Beijing Innovation Center for Humanoid Robotics, said during a panel in Singapore on Thursday, alongside other professionals from China’s robotics industry.

“This year has been defined as the first year of mass production of humanoid robots,” Xiong, chief technology officer and executive director of robotics firm UBTech, said in Mandarin translated by CNBC. He added that there had been rapid progress in both the mechanical bodies and the AI-powered “brains.”

The original “ChatGPT moment” occurred in late 2022, when OpenAI released its groundbreaking generative AI chatbot to the public, leading to mass adoption of large language models and widespread recognition of their potential. 

Robotics players hoping to recreate that impact include Tesla’s Optimus. Meanwhile, a growing number of humanoid robot start-ups are emerging in China, with companies like Unitree, Galbot, Agibot and UBtech Robotics bringing products to market. 

While humanoid robots are yet to reach a fraction of the adoption seen with generative AI, many experts do expect the technology to have a transformative impact on the global economy in a matter of years. 

Meanwhile, robots have begun to appear everywhere, from factories to technology conferences and sporting events. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said he expects the company to produce 5,000 of its Optimus robots this year, with the technology expected to eventually make up the majority of the EV maker’s business.

Meanwhile, humanoid robot firms in China say their products are already being used in factories and for commercial services. 

Speaking on Thursday, Zhao Yuli, chief strategy officer at Galbot, said the start-up had already deployed almost 1,000 robots across different businesses. 

Other companies, such as UBTech Robotics and Galbot, have also installed robots in local factories, according to local media reports. 

According to Zhao, these deployments have come alongside a surge of investor interest and government support in the sector, as well as the maturation of both robotics and generative AI technology. 

Industry experts noted that this maturation in technology has been on display at a number of conferences and events this year, such as China’s World Humanoid Robotics Game, which sees robots compete in practical scenarios. 

Galbot won a gold medal in the Robot Skills event after placing first in a pharmaceutical sorting challenge. 

Improvements in Chinese humanoid robots’ motion control have also been on display in recent months at sporting events such as marathons and boxing matches. 

Guo Yandong, founder and CEO of AI² Robotics, added that improvements in generative AI have also enabled robots to learn on the job rather than rely solely on preset commands, a shift that could expand the uses of humanoids across sectors. 

Despite the hype from humanoid robotics companies, however, many experts resist the idea that mass public adoption will occur anytime soon. 

“Humanoids won’t arrive all at once in a ChatGPT moment, but slowly enter more and more positions as their capabilities increase,” said Reyk Knuhtsen, analyst at SemiAnalysis, an independent research and analysis company specializing in semiconductors and AI. He added that their first uses will be in low-stakes, failure-tolerant tasks.

That’s not to mention long manufacturing timelines and high costs, which will also slow adoption compared to generative AI, he added. 

Even UBTech’s Xiong conceded that some hurdles remain for the sector, such as ethical considerations, laws and regulations that need to be addressed.

Still, analyst Knuhtsen expects investment in the space to continue as long as the autonomy of the robots continues to improve. 

“The market opportunity for humanoids is enormous, contingent on how well the AI performs … If the technology works, it has the chance to transform many labor processes around the world,” he said. 

Merrill Lynch analysts recently estimated in a research note that global humanoid robot shipments will reach 18,000 units in 2025 from 2,500 units last year. It also predicts a global robot “population” of 3 billion by 2060.