ISLAMABAD:
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were among the world leaders who attended the Arab-Islamic summit in Doha earlier this week. Both the leaders met on the sidelines of the gathering. The Saudi crown prince, who also holds the portfolio of prime minister, told his Pakistani counterpart that he was ready to welcome him in Riyadh in two days’ time.
It raised eyebrows as to what was the need for Prime Minister Shehbaz to travel to Saudi Arabia when he had already met MBS in Doha. At the time, no one, except those who are at the helm — both in Riyadh and Islamabad — knew what was in store. Two days later, there was another surprise.
When the prime minister’s plane entered the Saudi airspace, it was escorted by Saudi Air Force F-15 jets. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a longstanding relationship but in recent times it was not common for the Pakistani prime minister to get that sort of welcome.
By the time he landed in Riyadh and later arrived at the Saudi Palace for the meeting with the crown prince, it was evident that something extraordinary was about to happen. Even before the meeting between the two leaders kicked off, messages were relayed back to the authorities in Islamabad to light up all government buildings with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags. Similar orders were given to the Saudi authorities in Riyadh.
Just before midnight on Wednesday, following the meeting between the prime minister and the Saudi crown prince came the big news.
The prime minister and the Saudi de facto ruler signed a landmark “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement”. The pact has the potential to reshape regional security dynamics at a time when the Middle East is undergoing profound upheavals, according to experts.
Under the deal, any aggression against either Islamabad or Riyadh would be deemed an attack on both. Both countries may have longstanding defence ties but the latest agreement goes beyond the traditional cooperation the two states have long maintained.
While officials in Riyadh stressed that the agreement is not a response to any single event, the timing makes it difficult to ignore the backdrop of rising instability across the region.
The defence ties between the two countries are not new. For decades, Pakistani military trainers have been stationed in the kingdom, while Riyadh has come to Islamabad’s aid during repeated financial crises. What sets the latest pact apart is its formalisation of joint deterrence, a clause usually associated with military alliances.
The accord suggests that both sides are looking to elevate their relationship beyond transactional arrangements into a more binding security partnership. The optics surrounding Shehbaz’s visit reinforced this message: his plane was escorted by Saudi jets, and the presence of the army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, underscored the military’s stake in the agreement.
For Islamabad, the agreement signals both opportunity and risk, according to observers. On the one hand, it secures deeper engagement with a wealthy ally that has repeatedly served as Pakistan’s economic lifeline. On the other, the commitment to joint defence could drag Pakistan into conflicts far from its borders, something successive governments have sought to avoid, particularly after resisting Saudi pressure to join the Yemen war in 2015.
Yet, Pakistan may also calculate that Riyadh’s growing defence diversification, investments in indigenous arms production and closer ties with China, could be leveraged to its own benefit.
Also, it is important to note that the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran helped Pakistan’s cause. In the past, Islamabad was wary of explicitly siding with Tehran or Riyadh because of wider implications. In fact, a day before the landmark agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Ali Larijani, a senior aide of the Iranian Supreme leader, met with the Saudi crown prince in Riyadh. It is believed that the Saudi leader took the Iranian official into confidence about the imminent deal with Pakistan.
Officials in Islamabad also pointed out that following the Iran-Israel war in June, there has been tremendous goodwill about Pakistan in Tehran. Therefore, they were of the view that the Pakistan-Saudi defence pact would not upset Iran.
Experts in geo-strategic matters say that Pakistan’s strategic capability is India-centric and not for accomplishment of any religious or ideological objectives.
They further say that neither Pakistan nor KSA have any aggressive ambitions against any country; therefore, any confusion being created in this regard is based on assumptions with malicious objectives.
The defence pact will also revive old traditional ties between the two countries. In recent years, Saudi Arabia seems to have drifted away from Pakistan and was getting close to India. There will now be a strategic shift in favour of Pakistan as Riyadh would be more receptive to Islamabad’s concerns. Therefore, it came as no surprise that India was quick to react to the Pak-Saudi pact, insisting it will study its implications for the region.
At a broader level, the pact highlights how Middle Eastern states are recalibrating their alliances amid shifting US engagement in the region. With Washington increasingly reluctant to act as the Gulf’s security guarantor, Riyadh appears intent on crafting alternative mechanisms to safeguard its interests.
By aligning with Pakistan in such an explicit defence framework, Saudi Arabia not only taps into Islamabad’s vast military manpower and expertise but also sends a signal to both allies and adversaries that it is expanding its security umbrella.
While the true test of the agreement will come only in the event of a crisis, its announcement alone is a reminder of how turbulent the regional environment has become.
India says analysing pact
India on Thursday said it was analyzing the “implications” after Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact late on Wednesday, significantly strengthening a decades-old security partnership a week after Israel’s strikes on Qatar upended the diplomatic calculus in the region.
Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal said in a post on X that India was aware of the development, and that it would study its implications for New Delhi’s security and for regional stability.
“We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability. The government remains committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains.”
The statement added that the Indian government was already aware that the development, which it said “formalises a long-standing arrangement between the two countries”, was under consideration.
The Saudi deal comes months after Pakistan fought a brief military conflict with India in May.
A senior Saudi official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the need to balance relations with Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power.
“Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace whichever way we can.”
Pakistan and India fought three major wars since the two countries were carved out of British colonial India in 1947.
After they both acquired nuclear weapons in the late 1990s, their conflicts have been more limited in scale because of the danger of nuclear assets coming into play.
(With additional input from Reuters)
