Stocks gain on upbeat tech sentiment but a stronger dollar keeps investors cautious
Asian stocks rose on Monday as the US-China trade truce and surging investment in artificial intelligence buoyed risk sentiment, while the dollar firmed to a three-month high on easing rate cut wagers after hawkish comments from policymakers.
Investors are still focused on developments from last week, including central bank meetings and the US-China agreement on a year-long trade truce that was within broad expectations. But doubts remain if the truce will last for the full duration.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.63% at 729.82, hovering near the 4-1/2-year high it touched last week. The index is up more than 27% this year, on course for its best year since 2017.
Nasdaq futures rose 0.25%, while European futures also pointed to a higher open ahead of manufacturing data from the region.
In Asia, data showed big manufacturing hubs struggled to fire up in October as weak US demand and tariffs under President Donald Trump hit factory orders across the region.
Japan markets were closed for a holiday on Monday.
South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 2% to yet another record peak. China’s blue-chip stocks were 0.1% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1%.
“We advise investors to lock in some gains on the rises and accumulate on the corrections, and rotate into more defensive positioning toward year end,” said BofA strategists, noting that optimism tied to the US-China trade truce has been priced in.
Hawkish Fedspeak
A clutch of Federal Reserve bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates, even as influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market.
Following the October monetary policy meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut at the next meeting in December was “not a foregone conclusion”. Investors had expected that move to be almost a done deal.
“We continue to think that the motivation for the rate cuts is consistent with our premise for further dollar downside: the US economy will not outperform to the same degree as it did before,” Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note.
“That will lead to a weaker dollar over time given its strong starting point.”
Traders are now pricing a 68% chance of a rate cut in December, down from a near certainty last week before the Fed meeting, where the central bank lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected.
That has left the dollar firmer. The euro last bought $1.1524 at a three-month low. Sterling eased 0.2% to $1.3142, while the yen was at 154.05 per US dollar, near its lowest since mid-February.
With the US government shutdown set to extend this week, there will be no data for job openings as well as non-farm payrolls. The spotlight instead will be on a private employment report from ADP later this week.
The US shutdown, which started on October 1, is now the second-longest ever behind the 2018-2019 shutdown that lasted 35 days.
Earnings season in focus
After a mixed bag of earnings from the megacap companies that showed investors were keen to see a return on the extensive capital spending on AI infrastructure, focus will be on tech firms reporting this week.
Enthusiasm over AI has helped drive global stock markets, but investors are wary of potential overexuberance tied to the theme and eager for evidence that AI investments are paying off.
Semiconductor firms Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm and data analytics company Palantir Technologies are due to report. Other companies set to report this week include McDonald’s and Uber.
In commodities, gold was back above $4,000 as traders bought the dip.
Brent crude futures rose 0.32% to $64.98 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.16 a barrel, up 0.28%, after OPEC+ decided to hold off hiking production in the first quarter of next year.
