KARACHI:
The year-on-year (YoY) increase in Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) eased to 2.83% for the week ended December 24, 2025, reflecting continued short-term inflationary pressure, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI decreased 0.09%, indicating a marginal fall in the cost of essential goods. Out of the 51 monitored items, prices of 11 items decreased, 13 items increased, while 27 items remained unchanged – a broadly balanced price movement during the week.
The YoY increase of 2.83% was primarily driven by higher prices of essential commodities and utilities. Notable increases were recorded in gas charges for Q1 (up 29.85%), wheat flour (22.56%), sugar (16.32%), beef (13.01%), gur (12.46%), and bananas (11.24%).
Other items contributing to the annual rise included chilli powder, eggs, powdered milk, firewood, and selected clothing items such as lawn (printed fabric) and shirting.
However, these increases were partially offset by steep YoY declines in several perishable food items. Tomatoes showed a massive drop of 74.92%, followed by potatoes (down 49.79%), garlic (38.17%), onions (29.23%), and pulse gram (29.66%).
Prices of tea (Lipton), pulse mash, pulse masoor, electricity charges for Q1, and LPG also registered YoY declines, providing relief to consumers.
Every week, the sharpest decreases were observed in potatoes (down 10.37%), tomatoes (9.64%), onions (7.43%), and sugar (4.22%). In contrast, prices of chilli powder (up 6.26%), chicken (5.29%), bananas (2.46%), and electricity charges for Q1 (1.67%) recorded notable increases during the week.
Data across consumption quintiles showed that the YoY increase ranged from 1.35% for the lowest income group to 2.56% for the highest, which underscored a relatively contained inflation impact across income segments.
JS Global Research Head Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia noted that Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to clock in close to 6% for December 2025. For 1HFY26, average inflation is likely to stand at 5.2% compared to 7.3% during the same period of last year.
“I expect food inflation to clock in at 4.4% YoY; however, on a MoM basis, a decline is anticipated, driven by lower prices of key vegetables,” he said.
Housing, gas and electricity are projected to post a 1.4% month-on-month increase for December. Should these components remain broadly stable, the headline inflation could moderate to around 5.7%.
