What is Russia’s reaction to Trump’s Greenland bid?

When U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had to take over Greenland as a matter of national security, saying Chinese and Russian ships were “all over the place” in the Arctic region, the comments attracted a swift rebuke from Beijing.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian on Monday hit back, accusing Washington of “using the so-called ‘China threat’ as a pretext for itself to seek selfish gains.”

Russia, on the contrary, has been notably silent on Trump’s Greenland takeover ambitions and his threat to use military force to seize the Arctic island if necessary.

The silence emanating from the Kremlin on the Greenland matter could partly be explained by the fact that it’s been a holiday period for Russians, with Orthodox Christians celebrating Christmas on Jan. 7. Russia’s leadership has yet to comment on the capture of Russian ally Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s leader, last weekend.

Russia’s foreign ministry issued a statement criticizing the U.S.’ “aggressive actions” in Venezuela, and on the seizure of a newly Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic on Wednesday. But it too has been silent when it comes to Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory belonging to Denmark.

Moscow has arguably far more reason than China to be vocal about any potential U.S. “takeover” of a giant Arctic entity like Greenland, as Russia has had a laser-like focus on rising (and rival) geostrategic interests in the Arctic in recent years.

That’s with good reason: Russia is the largest Arctic nation by far, spanning 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, and it has longstanding geopolitical, strategic and socio-economic interests in the region.

The Arctic is a strategic driver of jobs, investment, and growth for the Russian economy with oil, gas, and mineral extraction industries based there, as well as fisheries and infrastructure and transportation logistics, particularly related to the Northern Sea Route — a major Arctic shipping route for Russia between Europe and Asia.

In addition, Russia maintains its sea-based nuclear deterrent in the Arctic and has a number of military bases and airfields there, as well as a specialized fleet of icebreakers to facilitate trade, transportation, and resource extraction in the territory.

Russia’s Arctic interests could well be impacted by the U.S.’ fixation on Greenland, and in particular, any move to take over the island by force. But analysts told CNBC that Moscow was more interested in seeing its ultimate goal — the destruction of NATO — realised.

“The Russian stake in Greenland is tiny,” Jamie Shea, former deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges at NATO, told CNBC Wednesday.

“The U.S. would have a larger presence in the North Atlantic [if it increased its presence in Greenland] but NATO is already limiting what Russia can do in the High North with Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the U.K. all increasing their military presence and capability in the region, and Sweden and Finland joining NATO. So not much would change for Russia strategically,” Shea, an international defense and security expert at think tank Chatham House, added.

Putin would be “delighted to see further divisions and incoherence in NATO and a massive transatlantic crisis that could lead the U.S. to stop its support for Ukraine and withdraw U.S. troops from Europe,” the analyst noted.

If the U.S. were “tied up in the Western Hemisphere,” that would ultimately give Russia more space to increase its influence in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe. So, on balance, [it would be] a massive win for Putin for which he pays no price,” he added.

Trump’s renewed Greenland bid, and the threat to use military force, if necessary, have sent shockwaves through NATO and its European member states this week.

Both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly told Trump that the island is not up for grabs, or up for sale, and that any military action to seize it would spell the end of the NATO alliance.

European leaders have also pushed back against Trump, stating that “it is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet with Danish officials next week.

The obvious alarm among European leaders, and the growing possibility of NATO’s dissolution, are “an absolute gift to Putin,” Edward R. Arnold, senior research fellow at RUSI, told CNBC.

“Putin’s always known, and Soviet leaders before him knew, that Russia can’t defeat NATO militarily. It’s too powerful, so it needs to defeat NATO politically, which is basically to make Article Five out to be hollow [and to] try and move the U.S. away from European interests to the point that they can expose that,” he added.

If Greenland’s annexation did become a more realistic prospect, “NATO is effectively going to eat itself politically,” Arnold added.