PUBLISHED
March 15, 2026
KARACHI:
If you’re at a fuel station and find yourself in disbelief, if you are at a grocery store, with your mind racing to recall the price tags from just last week, or if you’re at a pharmacy being told the medicine on your prescription is yet to arrive, you can assure yourself that you are in Pakistan.
For most people, the US-Israel war against Iran exists on television screens and news alerts. But the proximity is beginning to register closer to home. At the centre of this unfolding crisis, a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global markets, the Strait of Hormuz, through which the fuel and goods that power much of the country’s daily routine quietly pass.
A large share of the oil exported from Gulf countries travels through this important corridor before reaching international buyers. Pakistan, heavily dependent on imported fuel and several other essential commodities, is particularly exposed to any disruption in this passage.
When shipping routes grow uncertain or oil prices begin to jump, the effects rarely stay confined to energy markets. In a country like Pakistan, they move quietly through the economy. Transport becomes more expensive, freight costs rise, and wholesalers start pushing prices up. By the time these changes reach neighbourhood shops and local markets, they start showing up in the everyday expenses of ordinary households.
If tensions in the region continue and supply routes remain under pressure, experts warn that many Pakistanis may soon find themselves asking a practical question: which of the things they rely on every day could start becoming harder to find — or more expensive?
Fuel dependence
Among the many sectors that could feel the effects of a disruption in Gulf shipping routes, fuel is likely to be the first. Pakistan runs much of its daily economic activity on imported petroleum products. From the trucks carrying vegetables and grain between cities to factory machinery and backup generators that keep businesses running during power outages, fuel quietly powers a large part of the country’s routine economic life. The challenge, however, is that most of this fuel comes from abroad.
Pakistan imports the bulk of its petroleum requirements, much of which travels through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching its ports. When uncertainty surrounds this corridor, it raises a question that goes beyond prices, whether enough fuel will continue reaching the country in the weeks ahead.
This dependence leaves little room for comfort if shipping disruptions persist. Pakistan is often said to maintain petroleum reserves for around 30 to 45 days, but experts caution that reserves are only a temporary buffer in a crisis where global supply chains themselves are under pressure.
Economist Dr Kaiser Bengali believes the problem may not be limited to rising prices alone. “Other than the price of oil going up, there will be an issue of quantitative availability,” he said, referring to the possibility that supplies themselves could tighten. “That will have to be faced by Pakistan as well.”
In such a situation, countries with greater purchasing power tend to secure available shipments first. Smaller economies like Pakistan may find themselves competing in an increasingly expensive global market. “When there is a worldwide shortage, the one who will pay the highest price will get oil,” Dr Bengali noted. “If Pakistan is desperate to get oil from whatever is available in the global market, then Pakistan will have to offer a very high price for that to get it. And that means the prices here will also rise.”
For consumers, the effects of such increases rarely remain confined to petrol pumps. Fuel costs are deeply embedded in the broader economy, influencing the price of transportation, agricultural inputs and the movement of goods across the country. Dr Bengali pointed out that even a single increase in petrol prices quickly cascades across markets. “You have increased petrol by 55 rupees per litre,” he said. “So that will have an immediate impact on every commodity.”
The ripple effects can be particularly pronounced in Pakistan, where road transport dominates the movement of goods between cities and markets. Trucks carrying food, raw materials and consumer goods travel thousands of kilometres across the country every day, and each increase in diesel prices eventually finds its way into the final cost paid by consumers.
In other words, when fuel becomes expensive or scarce, the consequences are rarely limited to energy alone. They travel through the entire economic chain, raising costs for businesses and households alike, and turning a geopolitical crisis into a domestic economic challenge.
From fuel to food
Fuel disruptions rarely stay confined to petrol pumps. In a country like Pakistan, they quickly travel further along the supply chain and eventually reach the kitchen table. The first pressure point often appears in items that the country already depends on imports for.
One of the clearest examples is edible oil. Pakistan imports the overwhelming majority of the cooking oil consumed in households across the country. Industry estimates suggest that around 85 to 90 per cent of the country’s edible oil requirement is imported, with palm oil making up the largest share. Pakistan typically imports close to three million tonnes of palm oil annually, mostly from Indonesia and Malaysia, before it is refined and sold in local markets.
When uncertainty creeps into global shipping routes, the first signs of pressure often appear in items Pakistan already relies on imports for. Cooking oil is one of the clearest examples. Pakistan imports the vast majority of the edible oil used in homes across the country, which means disruptions in international supply chains can quickly ripple through local markets. For many households, cooking oil is a daily staple, so even a small disturbance in shipments or freight costs tends to show up quickly on grocery store shelves.
Lentils tell a similar story. Pakistan does grow pulses locally, but domestic production is not enough to meet national demand. To make up the difference, the country imports large volumes of lentils every year from countries such as Canada, Australia and Russia. Those supplies travel thousands of kilometres before reaching Pakistani ports. If shipping becomes irregular or transport costs rise, traders often begin adjusting prices long before consumers fully understand why the change has occurred.
Yet the pressure does not stop with imported food. Even crops grown within Pakistan depend on a steady flow of fuel to move from farms to markets. Vegetables harvested in rural districts must travel by truck to wholesale markets in major cities before reaching retailers and neighbourhood shops. When fuel becomes scarce or expensive, that journey becomes harder to sustain, and food that is plentiful in one area can suddenly become difficult to find somewhere else.
Dr Bengali explained that rising fuel costs can quickly translate into higher prices for everyday food items. “Prices will increase, because fuel prices increase,” he said, noting that transport costs are deeply embedded in the movement of goods across the country. “And in the future perishables may become in short supply.”
The challenge becomes even clearer when transport itself begins to slow down. Produce that is grown in one region must often travel hundreds of kilometres before reaching consumers elsewhere. If fuel becomes scarce or expensive, those supply chains can begin to break down.
“There may be areas producing tomatoes but they cannot be transported because there is no fuel,” Dr Bengali said while describing how disruptions can distort food markets. In such cases, vegetables might remain abundant and cheap near farms but become scarce and expensive in urban markets where consumers actually buy them.
Dr Bengali noted that Pakistan lacks a robust system to track local surpluses and shortages before they escalate into supply problems. If authorities were able to monitor where produce is available and where shortages are emerging, distribution could be managed more effectively before markets begin to feel the pressure.
“First of all, the government does not really have a mechanism to monitor local shortages,” he said, pointing to the difficulty of identifying where supplies are abundant and where they are running low. Without such coordination, even food produced within the country can fail to reach the places where it is needed most.
This imbalance between supply and accessibility illustrates how quickly energy disruptions can spill into the food economy. When transport becomes uncertain, it is not only imported commodities that come under pressure. Even crops grown within the country can struggle to reach the markets where they are needed most, turning a supply chain problem into a kitchen-table concern for millions of households.
A digital disruption
If the war continues, as it is expected, the fallout may not be limited to the essentials. It could also begin to interfere with something many people now consider indispensable — internet connectivity.
Pakistan’s telecom network runs on thousands of cellular towers spread across the country. Industry estimates suggest there are more than 50,000 telecom sites supporting mobile and broadband services. These towers are connected to the national grid, but because electricity outages remain common, operators cannot rely on grid power alone. To keep networks running during load shedding, most sites are equipped with backup power systems.
In practice, that backup power largely comes from diesel generators. When electricity goes out, generators automatically start running to keep the towers operational. Over the past few years, telecom companies have started installing solar panels at some locations to reduce fuel costs and improve energy efficiency. However, those installations still cover only a portion of the network, and many sites continue to depend on fuel to stay online.
A telecom industry expert familiar with network operations said this dependence could become a challenge if fuel supplies tighten. “Most cellular towers rely on generators when grid electricity fails,” the expert said. “Some sites are solar powered, but a large number still depend on diesel generators. If fuel availability becomes constrained for a longer period, connectivity in certain areas could also start to suffer.”
The implications would go beyond dropped calls or slower internet speeds. A growing share of everyday activity in Pakistan now depends on mobile connectivity. Offices rely on digital communication platforms, freelancers and remote workers depend on stable internet, and millions of people use mobile banking or digital wallets for routine transactions. Services such as ride-hailing apps, online marketplaces and food delivery platforms also function almost entirely through mobile networks.
If fuel shortages begin affecting the ability of telecom operators to keep tower sites running, those services could experience disruptions as well. In that sense, an energy crisis would not only affect how people travel or cook. It could also start showing up in the reliability of the digital tools that many businesses and households now rely on every day.
A supply chain vulnerability
While fuel, food and transport often dominate discussions around supply disruptions, the pharmaceutical sector faces its own set of vulnerabilities. Pakistan’s medicine industry largely operates as a formulation-based sector, meaning that many of the critical ingredients used to manufacture medicines locally are imported from abroad. These ingredients, known as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), form the core component of most medicines used to treat common illnesses.
According to industry estimates, the country imports the overwhelming majority of these raw materials from international markets, particularly from China, India and parts of Europe. That dependence means disruptions in global shipping routes can eventually filter into the healthcare system as well.
Javed Ghulam Mohammad, Group Managing Director and CEO of a pharmaceutical company said the sector remains heavily dependent on imported ingredients. “Pakistan is importing almost like 90 percent of the APIs,” he explained. “We are heavily dependent on imported API because we are the formulation industry, we are not the API industry.”
The challenge becomes more pronounced when supply chains begin to face uncertainty. Many of the raw materials used by Pakistani pharmaceutical companies arrive through shipping routes that connect to Gulf ports. If disruptions occur in that corridor, shipments can slow down or become more expensive.
“Disruption in the Gulf will definitely affect the overall supply of raw material to Pakistan,” Mohammad said. “And it will impact the availability of medicines.”
Despite these vulnerabilities, the pharmaceutical sector does maintain a limited buffer to absorb short-term disruptions. Companies typically maintain stocks of raw materials, medicines in production and finished products in warehouses. Additional inventory is also held by distributors before medicines reach pharmacies.
“Pharmaceutical companies generally keep around four to five months of stock,” Mohammad said, referring to the combined inventory of raw materials and production-stage medicines. “With another one to one and a half months with distributors.”
That cushion means immediate shortages are unlikely unless disruptions persist for an extended period. However, the situation can become more complicated if shipments remain delayed for several months.
For patients, the concern is not necessarily limited to rising prices. The more pressing issue is whether essential medicines remain available when they are needed. “Price is not the issue here,” Mohammad said. “The real concern is accessibility of medicine to patients.”
In a country with a large and growing population, even small interruptions in pharmaceutical supply chains can affect a significant number of people. If global shipping routes remain under pressure for a prolonged period, ensuring a steady flow of essential medicines could become yet another challenge tied to a crisis that began far beyond Pakistan’s borders.
The broader economic risk
Disruptions in Gulf shipping routes do not only affect the availability of commodities themselves; they also reshape the cost of moving goods across the world. When conflict spreads across a key maritime corridor, freight costs begin to climb, insurance premiums increase and shipping companies become more cautious about operating in the region.
Economist Dr Bengali said these hidden costs often surface quickly in international trade. “Freight will go up anyway,” he explained while describing the impact of conflict on shipping. “And where there is a situation of war, war risk premium is added to the insurance of freight.”
That additional insurance coverage, often required when vessels pass through conflict zones, can significantly raise the cost of transporting goods. “So the insurance cost goes up, which means your imports become more expensive,” Dr Bengali noted. “And your export goods also become more expensive, so they become less competitive compared to markets that are not near a war zone.”
For a country like Pakistan, which depends heavily on imported energy, raw materials and consumer goods, these additional costs can compound quickly. Even if shipments continue to arrive, the price of bringing them to local markets can increase sharply. In some cases, the issue may go beyond price and extend to availability itself.
“You are ready to pay a price, but it is not in the market,” Dr Bengali said while describing how shortages can emerge during global disruptions. “Availability will become an issue.”
Such pressures can place additional strain on an economy that is already operating under tight financial conditions. Pakistan’s external accounts remain heavily dependent on foreign loans, remittances and periodic financial support from international partners. In such circumstances, sudden spikes in import costs can become particularly difficult to absorb.
“Our biggest vulnerability is that we are now a bankrupt economy surviving on every dollar of loans,” Dr Bengali said bluntly, referring to Pakistan’s fragile economic position. According to him, the country’s limited financial space reduces its ability to absorb global shocks in energy or commodity markets.
That vulnerability can also translate into geopolitical pressure. Countries that rely heavily on external financing often find their economic choices constrained during global crises. In a conflict that already involves major powers and critical shipping routes, such financial dependence can complicate how governments respond to rapidly evolving developments.
For Pakistan, this means the impact of a distant war may not be confined to higher prices at petrol pumps or grocery stores. It may also test the resilience of an economy that remains closely tied to global financial and energy markets.
The everyday consequences
For now, the war remains distant from Pakistan’s borders. Life in the country continues much as it did before the conflict escalated in the Gulf. Yet the chain of connections that links Pakistan to global energy routes means that events unfolding thousands of kilometres away could gradually begin to shape everyday life at home.
The most immediate pressure would likely appear in fuel supplies. Petrol and diesel sit quietly at the centre of how goods move across Pakistan. Trucks carrying vegetables, grain and other supplies travel long distances every day between farms, wholesale markets and cities. When fuel becomes scarce or expensive, that movement begins to slow down and the effects eventually reach consumers.
In such situations, everyday items that already rely on imports such as cooking oil and lentils can become harder to keep stocked in markets. Medicines may also face pressure because the pharmaceutical industry depends on imported raw materials to manufacture many of the drugs sold in local pharmacies.
The effects may not stop there. Pakistan’s mobile and internet networks also depend on fuel in ways many people rarely think about. When electricity outages occur, telecom towers switch to backup generators to keep signals running. If fuel supplies tighten for a prolonged period, keeping those generators running across thousands of tower sites could become more difficult.
In a country where people increasingly rely on the internet for work, banking, communication and everyday services, even small interruptions in connectivity can quickly become noticeable in daily life.
At the moment, however, Pakistan itself is not a participant in the conflict. Dr Bengali cautioned that the situation remains uncertain and could evolve in unpredictable ways. “Right now we are not in a state of war,” he said, noting that the country’s current exposure is largely economic rather than military.
But he also warned that geopolitical dynamics could shift if the conflict deepens. According to Dr Bengali, if the United States fails to achieve its objectives in the region, it may attempt to open another front against Iran. “It is possible that they ask Pakistan for facilities to attack Iran from the eastern side,” he said, referring to the possibility of the conflict expanding geographically.
Such a development could place Pakistan in a difficult position, particularly given its economic dependence on external support. “If you don’t have economic sovereignty, you cannot have political sovereignty,” Dr Bengali said. “Our biggest vulnerability is that we are now a bankrupt economy surviving on every dollar of loans.”
For now, these remain possibilities rather than certainties. But the broader lesson is already visible: in a globalised economy, a geopolitical crisis rarely remains confined to the battlefield. If tensions continue and supply routes remain uncertain, the effects could eventually reach Pakistani homes, through kitchens, pharmacies, petrol pumps and even the mobile networks people rely on every day.
