Few expected Maldives President Mohamed Muiz’s party to win Sunday’s parliamentary elections in a landslide. This is because this is the person who won last year’s presidential election by a fluke.
At the time, the 45-year-old mayor of the capital Male entered the presidential election as a proxy candidate at 11 p.m. after the Supreme Court barred opposition leader and former president Abdullah Yameen from contesting the vote. Conviction for bribery.
Yameen’s face was the most prominent feature on the campaign’s banners and posters. And at election rallies, the front and center seats remained empty, reserved for imprisoned leaders.
Mr. Muiz will free Mr. Yameen, end what they call New Delhi’s vast influence in the Maldives, an archipelago of 500,000 people in the Indian Ocean, and expel Indian military personnel stationed there. He persuaded voters with a promise to see through the politician’s “indo-out” campaign.
However, shortly after his election victory in October, Muiz and Yameen, who was placed under house arrest, fell out, leading the president-elect to found a separate party, the People’s National Congress (PNC). Amid bitter divisions, Muiz appeared to face an uphill battle to win enough support in Sunday’s parliamentary polls, especially in the Maldives, an opposition party with a supermajority in the to-be-defunct parliament or Majlis. This is because the Democratic Party (MDP) is seen to remain strong.
However, Muiz’s PNC won a landslide victory in last weekend’s vote.
The party won 66 seats, its allies nine, and the president received the support of 75 members in the 93-member House of Representatives. This is a large enough number that the president could amend the Constitution if he wished. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party held only 12 seats. And Yameen’s party won no victories.
Ibrahim Ismail, a former lawmaker and founder of Mandu University in Male, said Muiz now had “absolute power”. “This level of majority is not a good thing. You can’t expect any checks or balances on the power of the president.”
Ismail, who played a key role in drafting the Maldives constitution, fears Maldives will return to “tyranny” nearly 20 years after adopting a multiparty democracy. said. “The PNC is actually not a proper political party. That’s not what’s going on from the bottom up,” he said. “The party was formed while Mr. Muiz was in power, and there is no one or organization within the party to hold him accountable. Basically, he was elected to parliament by the PNC. All members of Congress are subject to the president’s orders.
The victory gives the president “almost complete power over the judiciary,” Ismail said. “Changes are likely to be made to the court, and there is a good chance that the entire bench of the Supreme Court will be replaced. “This could pave the way for tyranny.”
Equally concerning is that the government could “substantially rewrite the constitution,” weakening provisions that guarantee fair elections and impose term limits on elected officials, Ismail said. he said.
India relations are at an all-time low
There are already worrying signs.
Muiz promised not to go after his opponents during the presidential campaign, but one of his first steps after taking office was to block online access to several important news and satirical websites. there were.
However, the government withdrew the plan in response to public backlash.
“We foresee serious challenges for democracy in the Maldives,” said Ahmed “Hiriga” Zahir, editor-in-chief of Daul newspaper. “There are concerns about transparency. The Muiz government does not reveal the expenses of the presidential palace or the number of political appointments,” said the veteran journalist. “And six months into his term, there has been virtually no interaction between the government and the media. At this rate, and without significant opposition, our It will be a difficult situation for democracy.”
Still, Maldivians are likely to condemn Muiz in the next election if he fails to fulfill his campaign promises, Zahir said.
The president, a civil engineer by trade, campaigned on a promise to promote infrastructure development, but the most eye-opening project was an island reclaimed from the sea connected to the capital by an undersea tunnel. The goal was to establish a brand new population center.
However, it is unclear whether he will be able to carry out these huge projects.
The tourism-dependent island nation’s debt amounts to about 113% of its gross domestic product (GDP), with more than half of that debt owed to China and India, each amounting to about $1.6 billion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in February that the country was at risk of sliding into a massive debt crisis, calling for “urgent policy adjustments” including reforms to the health care and subsidy system and bloated state-owned enterprises. Ta.
“Things are pretty tough,” said Mark Bolund, senior analyst at London-based financial information provider REDD. “I think the Maldives will need some form of external support. It could be from India, China or the Middle East.”
But so far, little aid has come.
Relations with India, which often steps in to rescue the Maldives, including during the coronavirus pandemic, are at an all-time low due to Muiz’s efforts to expel 75 Indian military personnel stationed in India. There is. The military operates two Dornier aircraft donated by India to support medical evacuation and rescue operations. New Delhi has agreed to replace them with civilians and the last troops are to leave the Maldives by May 10.
In January, three of Muiz’s deputy ministers made derogatory comments about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a “clown” after launching a campaign to promote tourism in India’s Raksdeep archipelago, located north of the Maldives. ” relations became even more strained.
The uproar prompted social media activists in India to call for a boycott of Maldives tourism. Arrivals from India, which was the biggest source of tourists last year, have since plummeted.
‘Great influence’ for China
Muiz has also received little help from his Middle Eastern partners.
He was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia immediately after taking office in November, but the visit was abruptly canceled without explanation. The president visited Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, but there was no public appeal for financial aid.
China also seems to be reluctant at the moment.
Muiz visited Beijing in January and Chinese President Xi Jinping called him an “old friend”, but it is unclear what, if any, help was provided. Maldivian media reported that China had agreed to provide the Maldives with grant aid (the amount was not disclosed) and said it would consider restructuring debt payments, mostly due in 2026.
However, with $500 million worth of Islamic bonds also due to mature in 2026, Chinese debt restructuring alone is likely not enough for the Maldives to avoid a growing external debt crisis, according to REDD. .
A former government official who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity said China may now be more compliant given Muiz’s landslide victory. “China has significant influence,” the former official said, and will seek rewards such as ratification of a free trade agreement that has been stalled since 2014 and access to a key east-west trade route that spans the Maldives. Indian and Western diplomats have previously expressed concerns that this access could pave the way for China to secure an Indian Ocean outpost.
David Brewster, a senior research fellow at Australia’s National Security University, was skeptical that the Maldives would allow a Chinese military presence, even if it meant alleviating financial distress.
“Certainly China will have a big influence, but I would be very surprised if there was a military presence, because the consequences would be very serious in the Maldives’ relations with India and other countries. The Maldives currently has a “very large debt to India”, he said.
Brewster questioned how much help Beijing could provide, pointing to neighboring Sri Lanka, which is heavily indebted to China and hit by a financial crisis in 2022.
“In Sri Lanka, China hasn’t been particularly helpful in terms of debt renegotiation or debt relief. So we don’t know what the Chinese government will do in the Maldives,” he said. “In Sri Lanka, it was India that really helped the country get through the crisis by providing huge loans while all international debt was deferred. And it was only after China reluctantly agreed to the debt deal itself That was after that,” he said.
He said the Maldives would likely need to go to the IMF soon.
“It will be interesting to see how that develops, whether China is interested in playing a constructive role,” he added.
